Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/11/2024 11:13

#Bountyhunter, exactly, and as the cash element of the AV offer is unlikely to change, the share multiple offer could if they revise up, IF successful the resulting corporate action could offer a full holding share swap to AV stock, the income from it is worth waiting out for and the 7.5% yield.. :o)

Interesting Times/Guardian comment here..

[1carus] 29/11/2024 11:11

Decided to sell. Was tired at looking at a 25% loss in my PF on this one for the longest time. So happy with a profit. Wasn't a lot of money and probably better places to put it despite the current interest. Good luck all.

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2024 10:15

Looking at the DLG yield of 2.2% and AV. yield of 7.5% this potential deal is looking quite attractive for DLG shareholders, should it go hostile.

[stevensupertrader] 29/11/2024 10:05

Pal. : Aviva clearly states - it is targeting and convincing investors rather than DLG Board that the offer is decent and good, so DLG won’t go up unless a firmer second offer is on the card.
Now Aviva Board is pushing t
its own share price up to sweeten this deal rather than DLG share price - in fact Aviva wants DLG share price to drop rather to go up, imo

[wba1] 29/11/2024 09:49

I am slightly surprised that it has not risen further this morning (235 perhaps) given the coverage that emerged later yesterday. It does seem that the journalists and analysts expect a further offer but that is not yet reflected in the price. I would also have expected to see some selling activity from large holders if they thought this would go away as that would mean they could buy back cheaper after Aviva backs off. I see no sign of that. If Aviva's reported sounding of the large holders is accurate the only way this does not happen is if there is too big a gap between their demands and Aviva's appetite, which seems to be in no one's interest. If they can meet at a mutually acceptable price Winslow and the board are sidelined. And there would be no point in Aviva talking to the big holders if they are not prepared to go higher.

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2024 09:00

Probably no problem as long as they could be sold straight away for those that don't want to hold Belgian shares :)
It's good that the deadline is Christmas Day I can't see them leaving it to near to then if they do come back.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/11/2024 08:37

#Bountyhunter, as an income seeker I would be happy with converted AV shares IF we get the choice.. :o), just have to sit back and watch/wait, they have until 25.12.2024 to come back with a sweetener and pretty unlikely to just have the 1 offer available..

[neilyb675] 29/11/2024 08:12

well done to both of you, have a cookie each.

[jrphoenixw2] 29/11/2024 08:11

At 8.10 it's +6p Hi 231.72 Lo 227.40, ie it gapped higher on the open vs previous COB at 224.40

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2024 08:04

Up 5p at the open as predicted.

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2024 07:59

Yes but do shareholders want AGS paper, which exchange are they on, Euronext? I guess if the price is right.

This looks like it, Belgian exchange?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/11/2024 07:58

#Bountyhunter, also worth considering the AGS share price has rallied +25% since their failed offer at 233 pence in Feb, could they come back in at 280 for free on account of their share price gain and a sweetener to 290 pence..? they do have more weight now to do so..

[che7win] 29/11/2024 07:57

As I said yesterday morning, expect Ageas to launch counter offer, this is going to 300p imho.Anyone selling yesterday, you're a bit early.

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2024 07:48

If Aviva do make an increased bid they can always announce it to the market themselves especially if they intend to go hostile if that proves to be necessary.

[neilyb675] 29/11/2024 07:46

RNS out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/11/2024 07:44

Tough call, IF a stronger bid comes back, and we get the corporate action option of converting to AV shares at 260/270 pence with their yield going forward is clearly worth it over a 225 exit, but the risk of a 2nd bid being rejected is very real..

AW is only just beginning to build his team out, the CFO started first, they want time to prove their worth and would possibly all be out on their ears if AV took over before the rest have even started..

See what the market offers today..

[speedsgh] 29/11/2024 07:43

Comment from the Guardian...

The market is not sentimental. Direct Line’s days of independence look numbered -

Prepare for the dance. Aviva is a big grown-up FTSE 100 insurer with a respected chief executive who doesn’t launch takeover offers on a whim; Amanda Blanc will have a strategy to go the distance. Direct Line, on the other hand, is a troubled FTSE 250 insurer with a new-ish chief executive, Adam Winslow, whose turnaround plan has not been applauded wildly by the stock market.

Aviva’s 250p-a-share, or £3.3bn, offer for Direct Line therefore looks to be the opening shot in a negotiation. The target’s board spouted the standard form of words – “highly opportunistic” and a “substantial” undervaluation – but will also know there will be a price at which it will be obliged by its own shareholders to roll over and talk terms. This tussle looks to be about where that price lies. Within a 270p-290p range, one suspects. Aviva starts as a heavy favourite to prevail.

Direct Line’s robust rejection of 250p was still justified. Since the group said no as recently as February to a 233p offer from the Belgian insurer Ageas, any other response would have been odd. But a fellow UK insurer such as Aviva is clearly a more formidable predator when, as with Ageas, the offer comes in a mix of cash and shares, and the bidder’s promise of “material” post-takeover cost savings is greater. As many as a third of Direct Line’s shareholders may already have a slice of Aviva, so should be comfortable with the idea of owning a bit more.

Aviva’s timing also looks sound. Winslow, an ex-Aviva executive as it happens, had to be given a chance to pitch his self-help plan, which he did in the summer. But, if the share price is still stuck in the 150p-180p range – having been 300p-ish before the profit warnings of 2022 and 2023 – the market is saying it expects any recovery to be a long haul.

In those circumstances, the accusation of opportunism carries no sting. Viewed the other way around, Direct Line’s shareholders are being offered the opportunity to take tomorrow’s value today. A near-60% takeover premium (before any improvement in terms) ain’t bad in an insurance market where recovery takes time because you cannot rewrite the premiums on the policies overnight.

One open question is whether the Competition and Markets Authority will have a look. Possibly. In home insurance, the combo could emerge as the biggest player; in motor, market shares move around, but this may be a case of the third- and fourth-largest operators getting together. But does that amount to a meaningful reduction in competitive forces? Possibly not.

Direct Line’s share price surged 41% to 224p, suggesting the market is confident there’s more bidding action to come. Aviva’s fell 2%, sufficiently small to encourage Blanc to think she hasn’t frightened her own shareholders and can afford to add a few pennies to get the deal done. Nobody is sentimental about insurers, even those such as Direct Line that were pioneers in their day. Prediction: it will all be over by Christmas.

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2024 07:41

So am I, I'll guess at least 5p up for starters rising gradually throughout the day, but that we will need to await more news for any big movement.

[huckers] 29/11/2024 07:39

The reports definitely give hope that Aviva will improve the offer, are committed and will force DLG to the table. I am expecting the share price to move higher today. I was going to sell everything mid 230s. I am now more bullish and planning to sell in stages from high 230s to high 240s.

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2024 07:38

No problem city, I'm not too fussed about DLG leaving it a week (as I've seen worse) but would expect them to accept a revised bid given their options awarded since the previous bids and, their provenance (CEO &CFO)! If they don't I see this going hostile given Aviva has reportedly been contacting major shareholders according to the FT.

[tuftymatt] 29/11/2024 07:34

Sentiment here is very weak from mid to long term holders so it's little wonder many of us trimmed into strength yesterday or in some cases jumped ship altogether.

I think the board are clearly acting in their own interests too as it's obvious they won't be welcomed back into the Aviva fold if it goes through. Therefore the talk of Aviva going hostile makes sense which is very likely to be good news for the share price in the short term at least.

Happy to have let 25% go yesterday at 227 for a good return but will leave the rest running as I have a low average of 172 on them, not great 48hrs ago, so can risk letting things unfold a bit more.

Would I top up on a dip below 220? Maybe as with this latest info I think this time around it will get taken out.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[my retirement fund] 29/11/2024 07:04

I think the board was hoping to be able to not tell the market and privately reject it. Given their history, they can't be trusted. The news escaping was a welcome development as most shareholders would have been sitting on huge losses given the last trading statement myself included. I've decided to exit early. I don't want to get involved in the boards daft career ambitions and risk the shareprice crashing back below 160

[jubberjim] 29/11/2024 05:37

In the end didn't have to wait too long so well pleased

Sold out one third of my Dlg shares @ 223.20 (info only )

Have restored a little bit of the liquidity that I had spent on the likes of GSK and BP

Can now sit back in relative comfort and await further developments?

Luck to all