Dignity Share Discussion Threads

[jacks13] 07/3/2018 15:06

Not wishing to tempt providence but I'm still here!

[mr hangman] 07/3/2018 14:01

Wonder how many Boomers snuffed it, in last weeks cold snap

[saltaire111] 07/3/2018 13:39

Also the macro picture of population growth and age demography is completely in favour of Dignity’s business. The Boomer generation are knocking-on these days - 65plus is the fastest growing demographic and death rates will accelerate over the next decade.

[jacks13] 07/3/2018 11:38

Dignity have what amounts to a £576million repayment mortgage with scheduled annual payments of c£33.3million through to 2049,(see notes: 16(a) and 21(a),(b) of the annual report). They also have a Crematorium Acquisition Facility of £15.8million which will have now been repaid (due February 2018).
Margins are under competitive pressure and they have announced a trimming of their lower end prices combined with cost savings but this is and will remain a strongly cash generative business. Free cash flow before interest and equity dividends has exceeded £50m in each of the last five years so I don't see this as anywhere near to insolvent. We're now seeing some common sense restored in the market.

[hatfullofsky] 07/3/2018 09:51

The debt has to be taken with the 242M of Property assets so not a large concern

Nice recovery, FY were to be in-line impact on FY18 and update was only planned for August. Hoping the recovery continues through to next week.

[saltaire111] 06/3/2018 20:59

Yes, quite. Unless Amazon’s going to move into the funeral business, I think Dignity’s model is fairly secure. Time will tell.

[redartbmud] 06/3/2018 17:22

The patience of the dead?

[saltaire111] 06/3/2018 14:28

It’s just a matter of patience with this one.

[jacks13] 23/2/2018 15:00

Preliminary results due 14 March. The debt is long term finkie, mostly due >5yrs. Look at the 2016AR if you can't wait till March. The board members hold about 250k between them.

[finkie] 22/2/2018 08:50

Interesting play short or long potentially, but £525m net debt is high for a business with a market cap of £370m. Any holders thoughts on how this will work through.....directors offloaded a fair amount of shares at £26/£27 last year which obviously now looks timely. What is their current holdings anyone know, I would think deminimis!

[saltaire111] 20/2/2018 09:48

Just bought in here. Not buying much at the moment but these look over-sold to me.

Salty.

[auson1] 19/2/2018 12:38

Could be a predator there are two with positions already or just the shorts closing before trading update. Either way this is still too cheap.

[randomwalker] 19/2/2018 12:22

looking up

wonder what is cooking?

[bench2] 15/2/2018 19:19

I am not a holder but I have been concerned at the escalating cost of funerals and weddings and the marketing of prepaid packages . So any break up of the cosy cartel of Dignity and Co-op is good news . Neither funerals or weddings are rocket science but it amazes me that they have both been expanded from a straightforward service followed by a get together of friends and relatives into the " MGM " performance of today . I should not be linking the two but modest weddings and funerals has to eventually come back into fashion . If Amazon is prepared to enter the health care business then the cushy world of undertakers may also be under threat .

[castleford tiger] 05/2/2018 17:19

I agree a rights issue is pretty much nailed on
tiger

[ltcm1] 05/2/2018 13:40

I wish they could put all their debt in a coffin and bury it somewhere.

[bookbroker] 05/2/2018 11:46

Half where it is now, desperately needs to raise cash, not for day-to day, but that debt level is far too high, particularly with the clouded outlook for the business, people will start negotiating the cost of their funeral with this business, the shoe is firmly on the consumer, it might be this business that reaches its own funeral first!

[volsung] 05/2/2018 11:45

Support at 655p

[gripfit] 05/2/2018 11:43

quid, the way its going .lol

[castleford tiger] 05/2/2018 11:39

So at what point do we see fair value here?

Tiger

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/2/2018 09:08

Absolutely. Same comment as on the day of the announcement - they are cutting income on their main product by 25%, which will have a percentage larger impact on their net margin (costs remain the same). Even then they will still be more expensive than their competitors, they cannot say what the volumes going forward will be (still lower, at best by less than they would have been had they not cut prices) and they therefore have no guidance.

The debt is well chronicled, and is long term. But when looking at the share price, you have to consider the enterprise value, which is the debt added to the market value - this gives the market valuation of the entire business. As the debt is such a large percentage of the enterprise value, fairly small changes in enterprise value (as assessed by the market) are caused by much larger swings in equity value (the share price).

I was surprised it was trading as high as 1000p-ish on results day and the next day. Current levels better reflect the value of the equity, but given the utter uncertainty of the forecast, there may be more risk to price in.

[bookbroker] 01/2/2018 08:52

The issue is significant margin erosion, and a very large debt overhang, serviceable but there significant intangible assets, and a large negative value, cash raising essential, can see another warning here, and what about the pension issue, this is a labour intensive business!

[volsung] 01/2/2018 08:48

Down down deeper and down

[hydrus] 01/2/2018 08:47

....and therefore there is ongoing downward pressure. Could get to a silly value.

[hydrus] 01/2/2018 08:47

Presumably the issue is that institutions want to get out