Dialight Share Discussion Threads

[beeezzz] 22/1/2015 15:22

Agreed, no profits no business...just hoping the expansion pay dividends...obviously they haven't just blown the money.. Capex must be reined in at some point, divi may have to cut..

Investing hey.....even Buffet gets is wrong tesco's and IBM good picks...short term maybe.

[jeffian] 22/1/2015 14:47

Aye, well they'll either have to stop 'investing', start earning a lot more or raise some fresh capital. It can't go on as it is.

[beeezzz] 22/1/2015 12:18

Jeff.... I think you are missing the fact they have been investing a great deal in manufacturing expansion...plus have increased workforce considerably...especially their sales force...whether this has been fruitful only time will tell.

I agree they have spent a lot of money, whether this huge investment pays off is difficult to say... the management are above average IMO when it comes to making investment decisions in new plant or R&D, they tend to know what they are doing.

[jeffian] 21/1/2015 23:36

The other issue to watch is cash (see my 2766). They had £15m net cash at the beginning of 2013 and net debt of £4.2m 22 months later. That's the best part of £40m taking account of profits in the meantime.

[beeezzz] 21/1/2015 16:24

Its difficult to say why brokers have different opinions regarding performance in 2014, we are still over a month from reporting so no one really knows... and the company surprise to the upside, just needs one big contract.

I'm also been kicking myself with regard to letting profits slip away over the last couple of years, in say that, they are my best performing stock in my sipp which I might add is looking direr at present, I brought in Sept 2009, given them a good run may look to lock in some profits this year.

[pugugly] 21/1/2015 12:59

cellars: Thanks for input. I cannot fault you (also agree with your last paragraph - I bought back in April 07 so I suspect you bought some 25-30p better than I. However we have both seen them substantially higher - I always have to kick myself to sell if I suspect the share price is going to continue falling and remind myself to lock in a profit (if there is one !! or minimise the los !!)

The problem with DIA as we have both identified is that while revenue is growing profit growth is not as fast and competition in LED is increasing.

Hence my difficulty in trying to assess a fair value and p/e -

I suspect given pressure in the market place a forward p/e in the region of 14 might be more appropriate which if eps estimates for 2014 are correct would imply a share price closer to £5.80 - £6.00 (edited to correct based on refs 2014 estimated eps of 38.4p) .

[tompion] 19/1/2015 18:41

Shorters taking advantage of a downgrade? About 4.5% of shares shorted by Ennismore, Blackrock etc.

[beeezzz] 19/1/2015 17:41

All looking good here.....led market has not even scratched the surface yet and dia are in a very highly regulated market place.

Not sure about the last trade 19 shares a negotiated trade @742p your having a laugh.

[imranawan] 19/1/2015 16:12

I meant PER of 16 in my last post

[imranawan] 19/1/2015 16:11

Not a current holder of Dialight but have been watching the share price for a while. I agree the current PE is too high at 20, but I think this should be in the bag based on the TU issued on Friday. Consensus broker forecasts for 2015 suggest 48 EPS which would bring down the EPS to around 16.

I think any upside in share price is based on them increasing EPS by around 30%. Whether this is achievable or not I don't know, but I agree operating margins seem to have been squeeezed considerably in recent years.

[pugugly] 19/1/2015 15:24

Trading update not encouraging (imo) - Like the stripper what is revealed is interesting - sales up - but what is concealed is critical - MARGINS - CASH FLOW - POSITION OF ORDER BOOK -

The question that needs asking is "Why have these been omitted"

Consensus eps for 2014 Refs dec is for 38.4p which at 740 19.8 p/e is (imo) too high for a coy where margins seem to have fallen significantly-

Why do i say that - Last year (2013)revenue £131m - From RNS Lighting revenues grew by 50% at constant currency. Within Signals, Obstruction returned to growth, with revenues up 22% year on year, similarly at constant currency, driven primarily by the US telecoms market.

However (assuming my maths etc correct) and if profits in line with estimates (refs consensus eps 38.4p) profit only up by a maximum of some 26-28%

Can anyone double check this guesstimate ?

If correct imo historic p/e of about 20 is too high for a coy facing increased margin pressure and I would suspect a futher fall in sp

(imo dyor etc)

Declaration still hold some having sold most higher up - was thinking of getting back in but now on wait and see list.

[megabear] 19/1/2015 14:19

Oriel cut their EPS forecasts by 15% and 25% for 2015 and 2016 apparently. They changed their minds quickly. Only initiated with a buy in December.

[megabear] 19/1/2015 10:20

Cut from Buy to Sell at Oriel this morning.

[gnomet2] 16/1/2015 13:02

31p to 39p eps I think

[cellars] 16/1/2015 12:57

but the spread of broker forecasts is tight so it may be that the company feels the market is already well informed.

[gnomet2] 16/1/2015 12:01

Revenue growth as usual but marked lack of detail compared to last year - specifically net cash and profit guidance figure.

[tompion] 16/1/2015 07:25

Trading update - things going well - will meet market expectations for 2014.

[gnomet2] 05/1/2015 23:08

Yes, and they gave full year profit guidance then too - so useful.

[tompion] 05/1/2015 16:55

Very quiet board at the moment - I think there was an update on 8th Jan last year - may be an update this week??

[v11slr] 18/12/2014 12:56

I used to hold DIA which is why I read this article. May be of interest to some here.

[beeezzz] 26/11/2014 16:22

Nice 60k trade @759p someones got some cash is that hvs sold up your CAR.

[hvs] 24/11/2014 20:15

£ 247 market cap.

U has to be JOKING.

Watch out.