Derwent London Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 15/8/2020 00:16

'Schroders to allow thousands of staff to work from home in milestone for City' Britain's largest listed asset manager has fired the starting gun on the end of City life HTTPS://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/14/schroders-allow-thousands-staff-work-home-milestone-city/

[essentialinvestor] 14/8/2020 13:50

One aspect to the DLN share price is on any recent weakness it's bought back quickly. It's bounced from this morning's low type area so many times now that I've lost count. It's only a pattern until it's not etc.

[essentialinvestor] 13/8/2020 18:59

Https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/13/office-future-britain-commuter-towns-home-working Title a little misleading, however Simon may have a point on suburbs.

[philanderer] 13/8/2020 17:47

Footfall in London's West End down by two-thirds on last year HTTPS://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/13/coronavirus-sadiq-khan-footfall-in-london-west-end-down-by-two-thirds-on-last-year

[essentialinvestor] 13/8/2020 15:57

May be of interest, reported today: Workplaces top source of virus clusters in France - Workplaces are the main source of clusters of coronavirus infection in France, and companies should have staff work from home as much as possible after the August holidays, one of France’s top coronavirus experts has said. Weekly health ministry data shows that since 9 May, private and public companies have accounted for 22% of 609 clusters of infection.

[nickrl] 13/8/2020 15:15

EI they are very positive looking reading through interim presentation that otehrs could learn from. Unfortunately im coming in off the back of a recent leg up so will keep it on the radar for now.

[essentialinvestor] 13/8/2020 14:32

Hi Nick, it was Konrad who drew my attention to CLS. Their rent collection stats look unrivalled, you also get exposure to Germany and France. Seen some comment they do not make all loan covenant metrics available. That may deter some, along with the controlling stake. CLS style themselves as specialists in non prime Office space, Not sure how they determine that definition as some of their locations look prime(ish). Perhaps lower tier rental values for a particular location?. So a very different proposition to DLN who are overwhelmingly Grade A London.

[nickrl] 13/8/2020 14:19

EI thx for heads up on CLS will revaluate again. I also FD topped up 50k shares recently.

[essentialinvestor] 13/8/2020 12:31

Recent CLS results read well, perhaps because of the controlling families stake it gets little attention. I don't hold atm.

[philanderer] 13/8/2020 10:55

Morning EI , yep that's where I've put it :-) DLN updated: 13th aug Baclays underweight tp 2600p 12th aug Numis buy tp 3800p 12th aug UBS buy tp 4425p 12th aug Deutsche hold tp 3250p 12th aug Liberum hold tp 3300p 11th aug Peel Hunt hold tp 3100p 11th aug ++++ interims ++++

[essentialinvestor] 13/8/2020 08:41

Hi Phil, just be mindful that the SHB share price is like a pinball atm, with rapid quick fire moves in either direction. One to keep on a watchlist at least.

[philanderer] 13/8/2020 00:51

EI, many thanks for the information. SHB could be interesting.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 17:32

Found a comment from Peel Hunt on Great Portland and they are/were looking for an approx 8% fall in 2021 NAV - comment made at their last results update. Given DLN operate in the same area geographically and Derwent's considerably lower resturant/retail exposure, a NAV fall of around 4/5% for 2021, may be. If COVID cases accelerate again and a further London lockdown happens. that may be too optimistic.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 16:57

On fundamentals GPOR has significantly less resturant/retail exposure @ circa 30%. and also some of the lowest gearing in the sector. Very bullish on SHB longer term, the big challenge is where the share price low point will be for Shaftesbury and could not even hazard a guess on that. GPOR is closer to DLN in terms of fundamentals at least. DLN is around 88% office with similar gearing.

[philanderer] 12/8/2020 16:47

GPOR and SHB look very similar charts YTD

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 16:44

Thanks Phil.

[philanderer] 12/8/2020 16:44

EI, I've seen nothing else.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 16:34

Interested to get some idea of where brokers see NAV in 12 months time, can't find any comment and don't have access to the professional full broker notes. Appreciate these are subject to change, however gives some idea of a ballpark type of estimate.

[nickrl] 12/8/2020 15:46

Philander after that broker note its definitely a sell!! Results are a lookback and I would have thought by now brokers would realise the world is changing. Im not in the doomsday club but the fact they've got 24% of leases on break or renewal next year is red flag in this market imo. Yes they've got good properties but your dealing with businesses who will need to rightsize once they have to stump up for the full payroll so they will hold the whip hand. As i say they aren't going under anytime soon but this isn't a premium propco that justifies the paltry yield.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 13:40

Phil, do you have any broker NAV estimate for 12 months out?, thanks.

[philanderer] 12/8/2020 12:54

Afternoon EI, Numis poitive.. Numis: Derwent London is undervalued Property development business Derwent London (DLN) is trading at too wide a discount as investors price in too much Covid-19 concern. Analyst Robert Duncan retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £38 on the shares, which fell 40p to £29.24 yesterday despite a ‘confident set of results’, with the net asset value (NAV) of the portfolio is 2% ahead of forecasts. ‘Derwent London is well positioned to continue adding value for shareholders through its largely de-risked current projects,’ he said. ‘We expect small upgrades to consensus NAV forecasts, and believe that the current 24% discount to trailing NAV is too wide, with sentiment overpricing risk as the full impact of Covid-19 on the office occupational market emerges.’ HTTPS://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/the-expert-view-hargreaves-lansdown-serco-and-dominos/a1389630?section=funds-insider&_ga=2.222957145.35075276.1597232889-1417487763.1597232889#i=5

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 12:46

Phil, I thought the statement was reasonable given the backdrop, but would defer to Nick's view on this. Todays UK GDP numbers paint a vulgar picture.

[philanderer] 12/8/2020 12:39

A few having second thoughts today ;-)

[philanderer] 12/8/2020 00:47

VIDEO A first look at 80 Charlotte Street HTTPS://www.derwentlondon.com/media/film/a-first-look-at-80-charlotte-street

[essentialinvestor] 11/8/2020 17:05

Article in today's FT giving a view on the London office market, in a nutshell- the impact of COVID and companies deciding they need less space has yet to hit the sector. It may already be reflected (to an extent) in share prices imv, just not in fundamentals. The sector still vulnerable to setbacks on risk off sentiment imv. And there remains the big unknown - when will HMG call a hault to the moritorium?.