Deltex Medical Share Discussion Threads

[chrisdgb] 28/4/2017 13:24

Didn't realise that the next tranche of the EU grant could be 2.5m.......if successful

[arf dysg] 28/4/2017 12:40

The loss per share is the smallest ever. It is 0.84p loss per share. This is because the number of shares is the largest ever.

_______ProfitPerShare
___________________|
_________profit____|
_____________|_____|
_turnover____|_____|
______GBP___GBH____|
year__(m)___(m)___(p)

2014 6507 -2990 -1.40
2015 6400 -3486 -1.59
2016 6300 -2400 -0.84



You'll notice that I measure profit, not in millions of GBP but in millions of GBH, because this is what is happening to our wealth.

[gbenson1] 28/4/2017 11:39

Looks like a few more distressed sellers have had enough, why don't they all just sell up and move on, it's very cathartic. Guess they were waiting yesterday for the .12 or .25 rise on the release of the results. Nice to see to 50k buy person is back!!

[arf dysg] 27/4/2017 17:42

...and an account is roughly one hospital


...and there are a lot of hospitals in the USA.

[yump] 27/4/2017 16:28

So the probes per new account since end 2014 is pretty low.

I stuck some monthly probe sale figures into a spreadsheet to see what happens if there's a general uplift.

The effect of say just 10 a month extra on average is fairly stunning. If decent account growth appears as well (say a move to 10 a month extra every 3 months for a year or so), the effect would be quite startling.

[yump] 27/4/2017 13:31

At the end of 2014 there were 7 US accounts, generating 8850 probe sales. Previously it had been around 7500 ish a year for several years.

Now there are another 23 accounts, I make it 10 in 2015 and 15 since end 2015.

Probe sales are only up by about 3000 since end 2014, so imo that explains why they are now pushing for higher probe sales in the US. The potential is clearly there and as 18 months+ has now passed since the real start of expansion in the US, it seems to me that this is THE year they find out how those accounts are going to scale.

Hopefully they'll keep us informed.

[ramnik007] 27/4/2017 10:58

I guess one strength Deltex has is R&D and generating good data; unfortunately just needs to translate into much better sales and cash self sufficiency. More waiting........

[arf dysg] 27/4/2017 10:23

I'm making myself a hostage to fortune with this, but let's live dangerously, not that buying Deltex shares was ever safe, ha ha ha. Here goes:

Yump, I do believe you're right!

The bottom has left the building!
The bottom has left the building!
The bottom has left the building!
The bottom has left the building!


I is likin' da sound of da EU Horizon grant, innit? Sweet as.

Dokta AD in da haus.

[doglover2003] 27/4/2017 09:01

From memory US platform account target to achieve 150 probes pcm within 18 months.

[yump] 27/4/2017 08:57

"Having achieved this milestone, we are now focusing our resources on supporting the increased use of our probes in these accounts with the goal of replicating our success in the ten largest such accounts which together accounted for over 75% of the underlying US probe run-rate coming into 2017"

Obviously we don't know if those 10 accounts are all early ones, but it appears to leave a lot of potential for perhaps the last 2 years additional accounts to contribute a big chunk going forwards.

Some time ago, February30th posted a cumulative list of the last 24 accounts. I think it was linear. So in a very simplistic way, if each account is increasing its use regularly with time, then the total probe sales will follow an accelerating curve.

[chrisdgb] 27/4/2017 08:48

Good solid stuff, well poised for upside surprises.........

[yump] 27/4/2017 08:46

From memory the very first US accounts generated a good proportion of the sales for quite a long time, while the total number of accounts was growing, so that 3 year figure makes sense.

That would be borne out by the contribution now covering the costs for the first time. I guess we'd need to look back at the timings of accounts added to see at what point that process might accelerate.

[fozdad] 27/4/2017 08:06

AuDigger,

They have done the graft to bring in the milestone target of 30 platform accounts and at this stage, the company believe it's more important to develop the newer US platform accounts to bring them up to the performance levels of the more established platform accounts. I think I read some time ago that it takes 3 years for new accounts to reach their target sales levels.

Whilst new accounts are great for development in 2018 onwards, working with the new accounts from the last 24 months is where the major sales increases will come from.

[audigger] 27/4/2017 07:34

Securing Phase 2 of the EU "grant" would be a significant step in the right direction. The US is looking like it has potential but they have to start adding a lot more new accounts at a faster rate. As for the UK, well we can expect the final nails to be placed in the coffin of the NHS shortly after June 8th....its a lost cause

[yump] 27/4/2017 07:24

I think the bottom may have left the building.

[ramnik007] 26/4/2017 16:53

Let's hope it's up after tomorrow !

[the count] 26/4/2017 13:45

--->BUYWELL3

Way too pessimistic I would guess.

I suspect what is closer to the truth is the company expecting to reach the cashflow break even level some time this year, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

That has been their aim, and the recent low amount of fund raising (which I see as being enough to bridge the gap till cash flow break even) is indicative, IMO, of that. They will have also built a further amount in that most recent fund raising to be a cushion for any small shocks along the way as well, such as short delays in payment and the like. They know the appetite for further large fund raisings against a back ground of non performance will be pretty much zero.

Let's wait and see.

I haven't been following all that closely in recent months (there hasn't been much to follow!), preferring to let time decide one way or another which way we are going.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

[arf dysg] 26/4/2017 11:26

buywell3, if South Korea does go up in smoke, Fatboy in the North will find himself burning in the hottest corner of Hell soon afterwards, and he knows it.

Anyway, I think you'll find that South-Korean sales comprise a MINORITY of Deltex's sales.


You could look here:


...but of course it goes up to the last published audited results, and that's for the year ending December the 31st, 2015. Not long to wait for the next set of results.

[gbenson1] 26/4/2017 07:29

Posting FT tearsheets from way back in 2015 really give us a feel for the financial position of DM right now, thanks for sharing your hysterical (sorry historical data)!!

[buywell3] 25/4/2017 23:32

The cash situation shown here is dire


With a burn rate of around £2.4M and increased cost of sales another fundraise of around £4M to £5M is likely to be announced within days.

The recent rise to 4p on BOD buying would make one think that circa 3.5p could be the target price

The delay in results reporting makes one wonder however if this is proving somewhat difficult to achieve, why?


The recent decent news of a reasonable contract win in S Korea , probably the biggest win in several years now has to be tempered by developments in N Korea.

In as much as if S Korea is about to become very important to demg , then it could all go up in smoke.

I wonder if certain people have this concern.

[parsons4] 25/4/2017 17:56

I agree with you 9degrees

[9degrees] 25/4/2017 13:43

an investor open day at the factory is to be welcomed and it makes sense to coincide with results . most likely good news !!keep holding

[gbenson1] 25/4/2017 11:03

Only 2 days to delayed results, no real news for 2 months, assume results might include any new contract wins, does DM have a PR dept? All quiet on the trading front, someone tried to sneak a sell under the radar late yesterday, someone has been building a stake recently with 50k buys. Anyone any thoughts?

[parsons4] 25/4/2017 05:25

I sincerely hope and think you are wrong myosite. We will soon find out !!! see you at the factory !!!