Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 22/11/2019 15:07

Agreed Loadsamoney.

The CPO price has surged upwards only recently, as have the forecasts for CPO prices for the next year. The market is only just waking up to this.

I think the two 507,056 trades are just a rollover (being at 2.2p and 2.23p), and the 483,091 trade could well be a buy from earlier today with late reporting as is often the case for larger trades. So in reality there's hardly any selling going on - which explains the excellent rise. Though a little profit-taking has just occurred.

[loadsamonay] 22/11/2019 14:53

Sometimes it just re rates because its under valued. At £9 to 11 million mkt cap, its not expensive if it makes good profits with the cpo price re rating. Past profits on a lesser cpo price indicate what is possible. Am guessing some of the 10k sells were buys,if not all.

[mr doughnut1] 22/11/2019 14:30

Why is this beginning to re-rate now? As chadders pointed out there is no new information that has been released - the name change perhaps????

[pugugly] 22/11/2019 14:25

Pumpydumpy? Looks like over 2 million sold - That is if ADVFN allocated correctly - Thoughts? Is the big seller still active?

[rivaldo] 22/11/2019 13:36

"Palm oil output deficit to push price upward in 1H20:
November 20, 2019

The biodiesel mandate in the world’s largest palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia could cause a deficit in palm oil stocks and push up crude palm oil (CPO) prices next year, said a leading palm oil industry analyst.

“I think the (European CPO) price would be US$700 per tonne in the first quarter and US$750 in the second quarter of 2020,” LMC International Ltd chairman James Fry told Bernama on the sidelines of the International Palm Oil Congress and Exhibition (PIPOC) 2019.

Indonesia is set to roll out its B30 biodiesel mandate beginning Jan 1 while Malaysia will implement its B20 programme in the transport sector, which is expected to increase the local consumption to 1.3 million tonnes a year.

The blend of 20 percent palm methyl ester and 80 percent petroleum diesel will make its debut in Langkawi in the first quarter of 2020, followed by Labuan in April, Sarawak in July and Sabah later.

“The big thing is, demand will continue to come from China and India...these two countries, which are the world’s largest consumers of palm oil, will prefer to import palm oil for its cheap price.

etc"

[chadders] 22/11/2019 13:04

Still only just off historic lows which is baffling. AgDevCo bought in at 3.27p and the directors last bought at 3p. This was in July when CPO pricing was falling and approaching record lows. Since then we've had record production, the Cpo price is up almost 50% and the cashew nut plant is well on the way. Go figure...

[rivaldo] 22/11/2019 11:58

Good to see a £2k buy cause a nice tick up....not much stock around?

[shauney2] 22/11/2019 11:36

Premier Miton have taken 11%

[mr doughnut1] 22/11/2019 09:08

Informative posts over on LSE as to yesterdays TR1. Time to ignore the short term jiggery pokery and concentrate on the basics of supply and demand of the CPO market

[rivaldo] 22/11/2019 08:22

The CPO price per REA Holdings has now zoomed up to $695....

[rivaldo] 21/11/2019 14:51

The Rotterdam CPO price is approaching $700 - and the share price is slowly reacting.

Good to see the bid price up to 2p now.

[chadders] 20/11/2019 17:54

Good luck mr doughnut1. Plenty of good news around at the moment.

[mr doughnut1] 20/11/2019 14:44

I have tried to buy another 100000 but couldn't get a quote, (I know I have stated that I am fully invested here, but I had another look at my investment criteria and am increasingly sure that 2018 was a one off year. there seem to be so many positives.)
Could only get a quote for 10000 at 2p - hope this is a good sign. Will try to buy in later.

[loadsamonay] 15/11/2019 19:12

Cpo at 680 now

[gymratt] 14/11/2019 15:12

Wedge forming on the chart, could break to the upside if this persistent seller clears...

AIMMHO

[mr doughnut1] 14/11/2019 14:33

I bought in again this pm and am now fully invested here.
Both chadders and rivaldo must have those 'balls of steel' that sweenoid used to refer to on the IQE thread. We will see if the market catches up with what investors here suspect might happen given the current CPO price.
As a side note - they stopped publishing my bakery magazine so no further posts in relation to that. GLA

[rivaldo] 12/11/2019 22:55

Cheers - that's 18-month highs now for the CPO price.

[chadders] 12/11/2019 16:01

CPO still rising now $679 tonne.

[fillipe] 12/11/2019 10:39

Best bid/ask on show is 1.9p v 2.3p, with almost the full ask being paid at 2.29p. All as I type.

f

[dropside] 11/11/2019 08:06

Price of CPO still shooting up today. Bought some more DKL first thing. Improvement in CPO will make a huge difference to their finances and ability to overcome any mishaps in the cashew launch. Looking good.

[rivaldo] 08/11/2019 12:40

CPO prices/futures are continuing to rocket today:



Not me chadders. Perhaps the MMs had the 233k that's just been reported on their books, and dropped the price a touch to accommodate it, who knows?

[chadders] 08/11/2019 08:07

Anyone have level 2? I can't quite understand days like yesterday when there a multiple buys but the price gets walked down. Today no trades and it's walked down again.

[chadders] 08/11/2019 07:58

A very useful insight. It all appears well managed and above all equitable.

[rivaldo] 08/11/2019 07:09

Cheers - here's the link:



Interesting post elsewhere setting out an email reply from DKL re CPO pricing. DKL will start to benefit from the sharp price in CPO prices from December onwards:

"Dekeloil base price

On 25th of each month the price of both CPO and what we pay for the FFB is communicated to all industry participants by AIPH.
AIPH is a body with members from farmers, cooperatives, palm oil producers and refineries. We are a member and participate in all meetings
The price of CPO is calculated from the USD CIF Rotterdam prices taking into account the previous 4 weeks prices
This means it takes approximately 1 month to fully price in movements. So when prices are going up as they are now we will see full benefit from December and conversely when prices go down we get the better prices for an additional month
There is a complex excel formula which works backwards from the AIPH CPO prices to work out the FFB cost. In general the calculation works to ensure fair prices for all and basically we share some of the pain on the down side and share some of the upside

Market conditions do also play a role

Prices can vary from the set AIPH price due to local market demand and supply. Typically in the low season we pay a premium for the FFB but we also achieve premiums on CPO sales. Typically at this time of the year in the low season our CPO premiums are about 10-15% above the set price. This is because there is not enough CPO to satisfy the refineries. The alternative for refiners is to import most likely from Asia and freight alone would cost them 10% plus premium so easier just to pay us
In the high season prices tend to hold to the AIPH levels if harvest levels are typical. The one big breakaway was in 2018 when the very low high season created fierce competition for FFB which meant we had to pay higher prices which could not all be passed on".

[chadders] 07/11/2019 20:10

CPO uptrend continues, $665 per tonne (source: rea holdings)