Defenx Share Discussion Threads

[addict] 22/1/2003 09:33

They should salvage what they can for the shareholders and do a strategic exit-it's the net cash which is supporting the share price,and it's still way above current market cap.DYOR.

[tony14] 22/1/2003 08:20

LONDON (AFX) - Dataflex Holdings PLC said its short- to medium-term outlook
will become more difficult as it posted "disappointing" first-half results with
margins under pressure and turnover below expectations, as a result of tough
trading conditions.
The company said performance in the second half is unlikely to improve as
the telecoms market is showing no signs of recovery.
Chairman Jack Leonard commented: "The six months to December 2002 have been
a major setback to Dataflex....The board considers that the risk profile of the
company's activities has significantly changed over the last six months and
therefore is currently considering its options to enhance shareholder value."
During the period, telecom operators continued to delay and cut back on
purchasing capital equipment resulting in its order intake being "extremely
low", Dataflex said.
The order book at the beginning of the period primarily consisted of orders
for its DECT (Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunications) based telephone
hand-set.
Although the DECT orders were successfully delivered over the period, no
further orders have been received to date and the future outlook, with the
sector's current freeze on capital expenditure, is very difficult to predict, it
added.
In the six months to Dec 31 2002, sales rose to 5.4 mln stg from 4.9 mln
including 882,000 stg from discontinued operations, although pretax losses
narrowed to 1.5 mln stg from 6.9 mln.
Loss per share was 2.11 pence, against a 8.96 pence loss. No interim
dividend is proposed.
[e-mail]
shw

[tony14] 22/1/2003 07:57

LONDON (AFX) - Dataflex Holdings PLC six months to December 31 2002
Sales - 5.40 mln stg vs 4.88 mln
Pretax loss - 1.46 mln stg vs loss 6.94 mln
Loss per share - 2.11 pence vs LPS 8.96

The six months to December 2002 have been a major setback to Dataflex both in
terms of its loss for the period and the increasing difficulty in predicting the
short and medium term trading conditions. The Board considers that the risk
profile of the Company's activities has significantly changed over the last six
months and therefore is currently considering its options to enhance shareholder
value.

Mkt Cap after this morning's markdown circa £5.9m. Net Assets £13.9m, no debt and cash of £14.9m. Comments and opinions please.

Regards

[trevorb] 17/12/2002 00:27

Ohhh dear.....I smell something burning?
I think it's the shareprice!

[wild cat and pussy] 16/12/2002 17:52

Orders have fallen substantially from that reported at the year end - £5.6m down to £1.9m. Cash balances of £15.6 m are projected to decrease to £14.6m.
Disappointing progress. Mkt value remains under-pinned by cash balance. Value of business is a negative at present, which is probably about right, given uncertainty of telecoms sector.
Now a hold at best.

[alexandrews] 11/12/2002 16:44

Rocketeer,

Sorry - I did read the thread in a bit of rush, so sorry if I mis-directed my post (BTW there was no question 8-). I do agree with all that you said in your reply, which I believe boils down to the fact that there is no-one to push the technology given the parlous state of the alt. telcos and the level of investment required of those adopting it (correct me if this is not what you were saying). I still maintain that adoption will continue, but at a very pedestrian rate.

trevorb,

Always glad to hear from people better informed than myself!

Alex

[trevorb] 11/12/2002 10:33

Rocketeer,

You hit the nail on the head there, the reason I know a lot about DFX is I work with two of the ex-sales men. Infact they were the last two salesmen at the place, now I think is just the sales director looking after thier biggest account?
Dead-end micky-mouse dialer prices have fallen from £30 a couple of years ago, too £8.50ish now! So when you have a turnover of 1.5 million dialers a year your revenues go from 45 million too 12.5 million!! Surprise surprise that's roughly what DFX did. Unless they can find other customers for an extra 3.8 million dialers they aren't going anywhere... Fast! That coupled with a shrinking dialer market things aren't looking rosey long term...

trevorb

[rocketeer] 11/12/2002 00:45

AlexAndrews

A direct question, so I shall answer. Your question should probably be directed to 'trevorb' as it was he/she, not I, who questioned the overall state of the VOIP market-place. Up to this point, I have agreed with 'trevorb' to the extent, that I doubt that DFX will ever be a credible VOIP player, but my reasons are entirely to do with DFX, and not the overall VOIP market-place.

However, 'trevorb' does have a point about the VOIP market. This technology, (which IMO is excellent and should be on the agenda of any business) and in particular VoDSL, always looked best from the perspective of the alt-telcos looking to take business away from the incumbants. Particularly those involved in the LLU (local-loop unbundling), where VoDSL represents a superb value-added service that should greatly help sell SDSL lines in the first place. Check out Fibernet ( ) as an example operator.

However, it is not at all clear, that the incumbants (UK/BT) have much to gain from this VoIP/DSL technology. It is much like the situation between leased-lines and SDSL. The incumbants can only promote these kinds of new technologies in competetion with their existing traditional services. At the very best, they will therefore be slow to do so (unless forced to, by the regulator).

In the last couple of years, most alt-telcos have been hammered. LLU (in the UK at least), has overall, been a dismal failure. The incumbants still dominate the last mile and still dictate the terms of uptake of new technologies. So, I think 'trevorb' is probably correct about the market-place. The VoIP/DSL market has been set back. It will be slower to develop, than was anticipated just a year or two ago.

Finally, I would stress that this has very little to do with DFX who IMO are not a credible VoIP player anyway. The VoIP/DSL market will (as it emerges) be dominated by the biggest/specialist players, just as they already dominate the communications terminal equipment market in general. DFX are a low-tech outfit that once had big ideas and bought a US VoIP company. They have since closed that company and retreated back to their dead-end micky-mouse dialers.

[alexandrews] 10/12/2002 11:58

Rocketeer,

I have no special knowledge of the VOIP market, but over the last few months I have read some articles in Computer Weekly recounting the experiences of companies that have made the move to VOIP, and they were very glowing recommendations of the technology. Granted that it will probably be a fairly slow market for the forseeable future owing to the level of investment it requires, but I don't think it's fair to say that it is dead or dying.

Alex

[the jitters] 05/12/2002 14:43

Amazing the nobility on ADVFN, posters who take the time to warn us off such dubious shares just to save us money when they have no vested interest themselves is truly touching!

Dream on Rocketman.

Phil

[rocketeer] 05/12/2002 13:25

Blimey, a persecution complex! Was it something I said?
So you have averaged down to 16.3p. Then you should be
able to realise a profit. The 'Message' is take it.
If you expect DFX ever to be substantially
re-valued, you are likely to wait forever.

You will be glad to hear that I have
nothing further to add.

lol

[hugepants] 05/12/2002 11:23

Rocketeer,

Ive bought 24K of these at an average of 16.3p so no Ive not followed them all the way down as Im sure you wish!

Frankly when I look at companies the accounts are by far and away the most important consideration. Everything else is subjective. You can research till you're blue in the face but there are so many variables at the end of the day you're only guessing. Look at all these city analysts who release dozens of pages of research notes only to end up looking like monkeys 6 months later.

[trevorb] 05/12/2002 10:03

VOIP is a great technology but where is it going? The telcos aren't buying it because the switched system still works! That only leaves enterprise, which you have competition like Nortel Cisco etc, which have scaled down the VOIP opperation. Besides, even if there was a great market for VOIP DFX wouldn't be in it because they don't have a working product!!

I don't own paper in this company or anything, just trying to save you some money...

[rocketeer] 05/12/2002 09:48

Hugepants & The Jitters -

I took profits (and out) on this way back, when it surged once before. Why? because I had taken the trouble to find out what was really going on at the company. That is something you 2 smarties have never bothered to do. But you did follow your investment all the way down, so I guess maybe, you are not as clever as you seem to think. So what are you saying Hugepants, that DFX has got notable turnover from VOIP? Looks like you have confused the company with another, or perhaps you are just making this up, as you go along.

Still, your tactic of going after the messenger, because you can't
deal with the message, is a time honoured one.

lol

[wild cat and pussy] 05/12/2002 08:00

i think that he must want this lower, so that he can buy in more cheaply - otherwise, why is he wasting his time or is he a disgruntled employee?

[hugepants] 05/12/2002 07:43

Rocketeer, BVC's revenues have collapsed. Also its Israeli and its losing money. Id seriously consider selling out and buying DFX.

[the jitters] 05/12/2002 01:47

Just wondering where you have been for the past 6 months thats all rocketeer.

Phil

[rocketeer] 04/12/2002 16:59

HugePants & The Jitters

The old 'Conspiracy Theory' usually pops up in desperate times.
Still, no doubt you are both experts in your chosen fields.
Whatever they happen to be. Best not to ask, I suspect.

Could it be that BVC is valued a little more than DFX
because it actually has some customers? Just a shot
in the dark you understand.

lol

[hugepants] 04/12/2002 02:17

yes, slightly suspicious.

[the jitters] 04/12/2002 01:31

Hugepants, interesting dont you think that a company board like this one that spends its life dead as a dodo suddenly finds a pair pf posters keen to slag the company off when its clearly too illiquid or small for them to hold short positions.

This at a time when people are being stone walled by the company when they mail executives there, and when rumours abound of an MBO..........hmmmm, a conspiracy theorist would have a field day here! LOL

Phil

[hugepants] 03/12/2002 23:38

Rocketeer

Just checked out BATM. You have got to be kidding right? Sell DFX and buy BATM. So buy into loss making BATM at 50% premium to cash in bank. Or stick with DFX at break-even and market cap covered by cash. Think Ill stay where i am thanks.


trevorb

VOIP is a new technology. Its a bit early to say it will never catch on. Anyway keep trying.

[trevorb] 03/12/2002 14:22

VOIP never worked and the American company that developed it they closed down!
So that isn't an option... There is some old Eurotel stock and sales going
through but that's no great shakes. Apart from squeezing more revenue from tele2, the prospect for the future looks dead. There is only two reasons the city would value the company at less than bank. One, by the time you add it all up there isn't realy 20M! Two, The company has a negative value because to give it a future will require a shed load of money...

[rocketeer] 03/12/2002 11:37

I reckon most of you stale bulls are into this at around 20p. Now might be a good time to cut your losses. The numbers sometimes misslead. The problem with this company lies deeper. Simply not investor friendly. I have figured for a long time that an MBO would be a likely result. Don't forget, that is how the company started in the first place. I feel confident that the management will find some way to trash the share-price once more. If you want a VOIP play, maybe it is time to take a look at BVC again.

[hugepants] 03/12/2002 11:25

This is incorrect. For the last 6 months of the year the company was break-even. This was after a major restructuring. I suppose you can get a figure of 0.5M cash burn per month if you include the year as a whole. However this would be a bit silly would it not considering the total transformation?

The forward order book is actually up 5% and in results directors state they expect to at least match the performance of the last 6 month period.

[trevorb] 03/12/2002 10:22

You still don't get it! Least cost routing which DFX are a major player in, is fading away! Most of Europe has gone CPS (no need for DFX equipment), the only thing seling is DECT phones for tele2. That brings them in about 10M a year with a gross margin of around 20%. Cash burn in their accounts amount to 0.5m per month meaning 20mil in the bank won't last for ever...