Debenhams Share Discussion Threads

[bikwik] 20/3/2018 17:05

This quarterly (3 month candles) chart puts the overall pattern in perspective. This looks to me like a head and shoulders bottom. Yes a bottom, not a top. They appear after long downtrends. Usually a horizontal neckline, sometimes down sloping sometimes up sloping. This is slightly up sloping, though I havn't drawn it in. I'll leave that to the observant ones among you.

There are several key points here. The stock market is full of cycles, the most obvious one being three, cycles that is. That's why head and shoulders form, three cycles, left shoulder, head and right shoulder. That's what we have here.

Also, some Fibonacci relationship or other is found in a huge number of shares and indices, FX, commodities etc etc. This is a reflection of human nature, most prevalent when a lot of people, the herd, have become involved in a financial instrument. Debenhams has enough shares traded on a daily basis to fit into that category.

So we now look to be approaching the end of the third cycle (3 is also a Fibonacci number) - the right shoulder. The downleg from the 124.8p high lasted EIGHT quarters (the down part of the 2nd cycle), while the current downswing is now TWENTY ONE quarters from the top of the 2nd cycle. We are also THIRTEEN quarters from the end of 2nd cycle. Timing wise that suggests a change of trend.

Of course the end of the current quarter is not quite over - we have another eight days to go. Possible that we go lower still. However, if this does work out to be a major low this quarter, then its likely we get a downside tail on the candle. That means we close the quarter (next Friday) higher than the low of the quarter. So far the low is 23.2p I think?

The price has entered key support from 2009 at 20.5p to 24.0p, and that has coincided with the Fibonacci time period as mentioned above. Technically, there is a good chance that a swift upside reversal is going to occur very soon.

That may mean Ashley or someone else does something very significant. I would certainly rather be long as opposed to heavily short. This could turn on a sixpence, or should that be 20p?

[simon templer junior] 20/3/2018 16:55

robot, let's not make unsubstantiated accusations of others on this board.

Let alone accumulating a million, I wonder what the numbers are for those who lost close to £20,000 in one year from their ISA accounts...

[robot ic1] 20/3/2018 16:43

🤖
stj post 4147 ,"be wise and sensible and learn from the illustrious Templar".🤡
Didn't he end up bankrupt .

Oh ,forgot to say ,bankrupts cant have ISA accounts.


With this year’s ISA deadline coming up in April and a whole new investing allowance of £20,000 coming our way for the 2018-19 tax year, how much do you think you might accumulate? Do you think a million pounds is out of the question?
You might be surprised to learn that there are estimated to be close to 1,000 investors in the UK who have accumulated a million or more in their ISA accounts, most of whom started out investing in the earlier PEP (Personal Equity Plan) scheme.

Forget the negative writings just stay positive +.
Always Do your own research its your cash .

[justiceforthemany] 20/3/2018 16:40

The low was 23p in Dec 2008 - in the depths of the global financial crisis - a far cry from today.

[bikwik] 20/3/2018 16:34

The low in 2009 was 20.5p, we got reasonably close to that today. It could still test that, though I suspect it may not. I suppose whether it does or not is slightly academic in some ways as even around 23p-24p its likely to double, probably. Short sellers have got carried away I think as we look to be close to a major turnaround. Here's why (my comments follow after):


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[robot ic1] 20/3/2018 16:32

🤖
With this year’s ISA deadline coming up in April and a whole new investing allowance of £20,000 coming our way for the 2018-19 tax year, how much do you think you might accumulate? Do you think a million pounds is out of the question?
You might be surprised to learn that there are estimated to be close to 1,000 investors in the UK who have accumulated a million or more in their ISA accounts, most of whom started out investing in the earlier PEP (Personal Equity Plan) scheme. 

Forget the negative writings just stay positive +.
Always Do your own research its your cash .

[robot ic1] 20/3/2018 16:28

🤖

stj post 4147 ,"be wise and sensible and learn from the illustrious Templar".🤡
Didn't he end up bankrupt .

take the advice at your peril.

Forget the negative writings just stay positive +.
Always Do your own research its your cash .

[justiceforthemany] 20/3/2018 16:27

Reminder H1 results are only to the end of Feb so no 'Beast' impact.

[paa65] 20/3/2018 16:06

A trade of 2.6m shares a few mins ago.Could it be Mike Ashley raising his stake to 30%?

[qantas] 20/3/2018 15:15

Debs Such a shame we don't have Crystal balls.

Next results 19/04/18

Half Year Results 2018

If anyone knows it is insider trading and the maximum jail term for insider dealing in the UK is seven years.

Please do your own research.

[debsdowner] 20/3/2018 14:59

QANTAS

The trading update is now history shareholders need to know the current position.

[qantas] 20/3/2018 14:30

owenski so the yield is higher now with the lower share price.

Barvin you need to learn how to post links.

This company is not bust you seem to forget.



Debenhams plc today announces its trading update for the 17 weeks to 30 December 2017.

Financial Summary

· Group gross transaction value for 17 weeks declined (0.8%); Group like-for-like sales as reported down (1.3%)

· Group like-for-like sales in constant currency declined (1.8%), including UK LFL down (2.6%) and International up 2.1%. Digital sales have risen 9.9%, with two year growth of 22%

· The early weeks of the quarter were disappointing as the market remained volatile and competitive. We took tactical promotional action to improve our performance which resulted in a stronger 6 week Christmas period against tough comparatives, with LFL sales up 1.2% in constant currency and digital growth of 15.1%

· However, the first week of post-Christmas Sale was below expectations despite further markdown investment, particularly in the highly seasonal Gift category

· H1 gross margins are now expected to be c150bps down on the prior year, as a result of the promotional market and to deliver a clean end-season stock position

· We have identified cost savings of c£10m above previous guidance. Looking ahead, should the current competitive and volatile environment continue into H2, FY2018 profit before tax is now likely to be in the range of £55m to £65m

Please do your own research...

[barvin] 20/3/2018 14:03

@justiceforthemanySSPG, Just Eat, B&M, ASOS, PZ Cussons have huge margins compared to DEB. No comparison

@QANTAS Debenhams has been around for a long time? What does that matter? So was Woolworths. Look at Woolworths final accounts in 2008, so similar to here. Same revenue, tiny margins and lumps of goodwill with no realisable assets underneath.
As Paul Scott states in the link below, all it takes is a margin hit which could come from the forex deal expiration and whole host of other things and those profits turn to losses quickly

[debsdowner] 20/3/2018 13:29

Carpetright being floored again today down over 7% at the moment.

QANTAS

Conveniality stopped the dividend when things turned sour then suspended the shares!

Its all very well mentioning current pe ratio and prospective yield but the figures are meaningless if things deteriorate.

[justiceforthemany] 20/3/2018 13:28

PENSION SURPLUS as of SEPTEMBER 2017
The Group provides a number of pension arrangements for its employees. These include the Debenhams Retirement Scheme ("DRS") and the Debenhams Executive Pension Plan ("DEPP") (together "the pension schemes") which both closed for future service accrual from 31 October 2006. On an accounting basis, the net surplus on the Group's pension schemes as at 2 September 2017 was £80.9 million (3 September 2016: net deficit of £4.1 million). The surplus was driven by a growth in asset values.

[justiceforthemany] 20/3/2018 13:27

barvin you reckon it will take up to 18 months? That is a very positive statement coming from you. A rival bidder could also emerge of course in that time. As for intangibles/goodwill are you aware SSPG, Just Eat, B&M, ASOS, PZ Cussons among others all have negative assets if you strip out intangibles/goodwill? Didn't stop them increasing by 200-400% in recent years

[qantas] 20/3/2018 13:21

Barvin

" we don't make money retailing "

Quite right, DEB don't make any money from retailing. Well, apart from £49m net profit last year.

= 4ppp & 3.43p dividend.

or if you prefer your figures adjusted: 6.4ppp.

I don't think Mike Ashley has been upping his stake in DEB because he wants to lose money...

P/E currently < 7 and div yield ~12.5%. If there's a 50% dividend cut there'll still a hefty yield on offer.

DEB has been around for a very long time and has gone through many changes. The management seem to be taking steps to reposition the company. This is a good recovery play at the moment and you get paid to wait.

Please do your own research...

[barvin] 20/3/2018 13:10

All Ashley has to do is wait for it to go bust in say 12-18 months and pick the best bits in the fire sale. His voting shares may have some influence in who gets what.Not really worth an offer. Strip out goodwill and they actually have negative net assets by now.

[justiceforthemany] 20/3/2018 12:53

Sports Direct/Ashley 0.3% away from a 30% holding and a formal bid. 23p all time low from 2008.

[simon templer junior] 20/3/2018 12:16

Ladies and gentlemen, let's not turn this board into a slanging match - be wise and sensible and learn from the illustrious Templar.

There was this woman I proposed to marry
And wished her my future child to carry
But illustrious Templar spoke words of caution
Before I could put the plan into motion
I mused, the decided not to make her my wife
I am glad that I did not catch a falling knife

[niggle] 20/3/2018 11:06

Watch out below

[robot ic1] 19/3/2018 23:06

🤖
debsdowner
Your at it again Https links, you call me for research but research yourself obsessively.You don't have a good word for any retail or business running in the uk.Resignations ,slanging and wrong doing seems to be at the forefront of your posts.
I had my eyes tested yesterday as you recommended and my eyes have 20/20 vision .

I also looked at the finishing price again on Debs for Friday evening last where you said the finishing price was down on the start price, I was right and you were wrong true fact ,not fake news like you give out.

Lastly I am funny , it is better than being like you .

Debenhams is re-grouping and will suceed regardless of your negative posts .

Forget the negative writings just stay positive +.
Always Do your own research its your cash .

[qantas] 19/3/2018 22:31

Barvin No one is bigger than the markets FYI

I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

The UK and EU agree terms for Brexit transition period -

Please do your own research...