Debenhams Share Discussion Threads

[simon templar qc] 21/7/2017 13:59

Shorts increased to 13%

OLD MUTUAL latest to declare it short position.

I did indicate a bobbing around at these levels but I think the share is still in a downtrend.

[mister md] 21/7/2017 12:23

Only Odey has a 4%+ short

[grahamite2] 21/7/2017 12:06

Not remotely comparable with CLLN - it's just that CLLN has concentrated minds on the dangers of high yield stocks. I'm certainly reviewing all mine.

[mister md] 21/7/2017 12:04

Is this normal selling or short positions increasing ?

[mister md] 20/7/2017 19:41

Prefer an hour in Debenhams rather than messing around online to buy clothes and the hassle of returning items by mail. Hope to see some recovery here and shorts closing, I think its in much less trouble than CLLN

[kazoom] 20/7/2017 15:22

I'd go for internet shopping whilst draped on perfectly formed model thanks.

Do I get to chose who?

[edmundshaw] 20/7/2017 15:01

Yield 7.8%. PER under 6. Pension deficit: nominal and likely to disappear imminently. Balance sheet: Fine. Forecasts: OK. Price action: weak. Broker recommendations: as ever in line with price action. Goldman Sachs has it as a sell, but as I wouldn't trust GS as far as I could throw an elephant, I won't be taking that into consideration.

Yes, justice, on the face of it, lots of assets, volatile/unpredictable customers have caused some issues, and I suspect some brokers are not convinced by the new CEO. But this is certainly cheap on most metrics. There are people who think digital and online will render all historical human interactions obsolete within a decade.

The truth is, people change habits slowly or not at all unless the incentive is strong. And there are many problems with internet buying which, for most of us, makes buying TVs, cameras, iphones, garden equipment etc online very convenient, but food and "outerwear" clothing, or anything you have a high probability of taking back, very much less so. How do you ask a friend's opinion on a new dress/coat lippie from online? And what girls prefer to eat at a computer terminal or at a desk (or on a couch) with an iphone at lunchtime while internet shopping for clothes draped on a perfectly formed model, when the sun is shining and their friends are in town?

[justiceforthemany] 20/7/2017 14:05

Its high street competitors are trading at up to 11x their book price/NAV.

[justiceforthemany] 20/7/2017 14:03

DEBENHAMS

OK I will help you guys out just this once.

Current Price to book ratio = 0.60

Book value/Net Asset Value = 72p

Current share price = 43.25p

Yes this is trading at a 40% DISCOUNT to the NAV/Book price.

[justiceforthemany] 20/7/2017 13:39

That is because these crooks suppress any good news and illegally manipulate the share price holding it down for as long as possible until they release the clamp. FCA say they are 'aware' and 'are investigating' but don't hold your breath!

Sports Direct is up 12% today - yes TWELVE percent on announcing a 60% fall in profits (due in part to bad hedging) but then they only had 3% shorts. Debenhams will NOT be announcing a fall anywhere near 60% so on that basis we should be up 20% today!

Deb are up <1%.

Total BS.

[grahamite2] 20/7/2017 13:29

Today's good news hasn't done us much good.

[justiceforthemany] 20/7/2017 13:26

BTW FYI Debenhams is NOT John Lewis and has NO LINKS with that rip-off retailer.

[justiceforthemany] 20/7/2017 13:25

Retail and clothing sales up in June

hxxp://news.sky.com/story/sun-shines-for-retailers-as-sales-jump-06-in-june-10954862

SimonTemplar doom-mongerer why are you quiet?
Are you crying about this good news for retailers?

[mister md] 20/7/2017 08:13

SPD results helping

[clocktower] 18/7/2017 15:30

While the shorts are winning at present MA could give them all a bloody nose and burn their fingers yet. Getting to the point of being a good punt?

[simon templar qc] 18/7/2017 10:49

John Lewis weekly sales figures out...



Week 24 up 4% on last year which is a slight improvement on trend but full 24 weeks trading not good enough at +1.3%

Inflation figures out today at 2.6& is higher than 2% wage growth which excludes public sector.


edit:

JL figures seem confusing they claim fashion sales were up 1% then 4% in a different column. Needs clarifying.

[justiceforthemany] 17/7/2017 12:49

So those 'experts' on this board - tell us what the P:B ratio is for Debenhams?

What is the NAV/Book value? What is the ROCE?

I think you will be surprised.

Just to help you along the way I can say it is one of very few shares trading at a DISCOUNT to book value - a steep discount at that.

Those speculating a dividend cut here are also bang out of order with dividend cover currently at 2.05x

[kazoom] 16/7/2017 12:53

just my thoughts on this f.i.m.

Yes all of the shorts at sometime in the future have to close (excepting liquidation) thereby create a pool of future buyers.

BUT, I think people underestimate the patience of the those taking short positions and their strategy. So called "hedge funds" seek to make gains whether the markets are rising or falling and one way of doing this is "pair trading".

They might (just for a hypothetical example) be short DEB and long MKS - it then doesn't matter to them whether DEB go up or down; so long as MKS performs better than DEB they are in the money.

In the current state of affairs though it's entirely possible they might be short most of the retail sector and balancing this with another sector entirely (maybe banking, resources, whatever).

So it really doesn't, imho, make too much sense to assume that the shorts closing create a coiled spring effect - if when the do offload it could be over a very extended period.

On the other hand some people seem to forward the argument that the shorts depress the price. Well certainly at the time they are opened, the create a "sell" that obviously depresses the price somewhat, but once that is done, they are entirely passive.

The finally there is the argument that the level of short interest tells you what "the smart money" thinks. There's undoubtedly some truth in this (look at Carrilion for example where there has been substantial short interest for over 2 years), but the smart money isn't always as smart as you would think (and in fact as above, the objective may not be quite what you think), I've certainly made money on shares with a significant short interest in the past. Morrisons (MRW) from 2014 is quite a good recent example where the share price has risen almost in step with the rising short interest.


compare with


(sorry can't seem to embed that as an image)

[foot in mouth] 16/7/2017 10:16

That doesn't make sense. If something is heavily shorted and thus oversold then it is a buying opportunity, no? It's the same but opposite for something overbought. I'm getting tempted at these levels to buy, not short!

[bridgecottagedancer] 16/7/2017 08:58

Just looked at the percentage shorting and it's that high I don't see how this downtrend can end !!

[simon templar qc] 15/7/2017 21:27

New funds are to be set up to short shopping malls in the US and it would appear the UK is to get more completive still with more US online retailers to move in the UK...



Retailers are already being shorted but it looks like this may get worse still.

Paula Nickold's from John Lewis to send staff to Drama School to try and give store staff more confidence when dealing with customers.

Retail management are getting very concerned now of bricks and mortar stores, if they don't deal the customer issues quickly they face going under.