Debenhams Share Discussion Threads

[mreasygoing] 14/7/2017 19:44

Thanks for the reply Simon. I don't think this will go under like BHS. I see the share price perhaps in the 20's before bottoming out. There is no compelling reason to buy at present. As you say the bears have their teeth in this and that's getting tighter. So I'll just watch for now. Dividend is unsustainable at current levels. One consolation is that fatty Newcastle utd man is taking a beating with his share holding stake.

[simon templar qc] 14/7/2017 19:20

Mr easy,

That's a difficult one. It depends on how bad the retail environment pans out the next 12 months. Its not been shorted for fun!

Look what happened to Carillion lately the most highly shorted stock and it plummeted. I appreciate its in the construction sector however Debenhams is increasing its shorts.

I happen to think Debenhams is at risk now so I couldn't give a fair price.

Since BHS went its been talked about a number of times more bigger players could very well hit the wall.

I see better value at Marks to be honest with a safer dividend. Dividend here is unsustainable if you want my opinion.


edit:

Edmund

It could be a like for like fall of 5% not 0.5% !!!!

[edmundshaw] 14/7/2017 19:20

Puzzled where the analyst predicts a like for like fall of 0.5% when total sales to date for JL (excluding Waitrose)are up 1.2% when the company has increased store space by about 4%?

Easy enough to explain if you aren't comstantly looking for downside to confirma your bias; it could be several factors: the timing of the store openings, a slow customer footfall on startup, sales mix... alternatively of course it could be dodgy arithmetic by the analyst.

[mreasygoing] 14/7/2017 18:50

What price do you see fair value Simon ?

[simon templar qc] 13/7/2017 20:26

SHORTS INCREASING

[niggle] 12/7/2017 10:55

Certainly looks that way.

[simon templar qc] 12/7/2017 09:41

Public sector workers wages held down they have seen an erosion of circa 13% or more the last 5 years.

Wage rises today for other workers published today are running at 1.8% in real terms they are losing out by inflation.

Debenhams has a lot further to fall imo.

[simon templar qc] 11/7/2017 10:40

John Lewis weekly sales figures..



Overall a touch better but like for like must be falling and more so taking account of new stores and inflation.

[simon templar qc] 09/7/2017 16:05

M&S will have a trading update this week, which may give a clue on consumer spend. The brokers becoming more positive on Marks lately.....



My own view is most retailers will see slower sales for quite some time to come, there are bound to be winners and losers and I feel Marls is better placed than Debs. Their food offering still attracts mid to high end shoppers Marks has a better brand image.


edit:

In the meantime boohoo market cap multiples higher than Debenhams, the key seems to be fast new fashions every single day and internet only which suits younger lifestyles.



My own view is the touchy feely and need for bricks and mortar will still be around for years to come but not as many bricks and mortar shops and the need to concentrate in areas where they know there is a demand. With Debenhams having a large proportion of bricks and mortar stores they are very vulnerable to any further downturn.

Recent share trades. I too have noticed a number of premium trades! Are these new buyers or short traders settling up! I haven't a clue!

[stud-muffin] 08/7/2017 08:59

The accumulation continues at the close.

The shorters are doing good work for I assume MA - he must be very pleased they have depressed the share price this far.

At some point Odey Blackrock etal will have to buy their stock. Be nice if its for 70p plus.

Is MA going for 30% and then full bid or just a front row seat?

Its clear from his court room talk he hates the city - I suspect he would be very happy to give them a black eye.

Watch this space.

Ps - Could Templar be any more obviously short and talking his book than this thread?

[simon templar qc] 07/7/2017 16:35

Neither are consumers in a rush to buy clothes and household items not when they are having to pay higher prices and their wages being eroded by inflation. Things are getting worse and not better for retailers.

Good luck you will need it as all the economic signs are for the UK economy to get worse no better.

[ny boy] 07/7/2017 16:02

Not in any rush, happy to sit out

[simon templar qc] 07/7/2017 13:06

A penny dividend little comfort for a falling share price.

[ny boy] 07/7/2017 09:38

Received divi payout this morning, all good for a hold here, ignore the noise.

[simon templar qc] 07/7/2017 09:37

More gloomy figures just released:

-Industrial production turns negative
-manufacturing production turs negative

Both were forecast to be higher.

Halifax house price index negative

All this is bad news for retail stocks the UK economy is clearly suffering.

[simon templar qc] 06/7/2017 19:34

New Debenhams ready to open on a retail park...



Unfortunately the environment deteriorated since the planning began and retail parks more out of favour.

Bet they wished they could turn the clock back!

[edmundshaw] 06/7/2017 16:28

People spouting nonsense about market maker manipulation are usually the stale bulls.

This time, well you can work it out for yourselves...

niggle, we know you don't understand intangibles, you have made that pretty clear in the past, you really don't need to remind us.

[simon templar qc] 06/7/2017 13:15

niggle,

The adds not me its probably allowed by ADVFN as they are financial related.

On another tack I suspect the market makers doing a bit of manipulation one always gets a bounce off lows my feeling is they get the odd large seller than marks up to try and get a better profit.

If one clicks onto my links below the chart the and look for recent brokers stance the latest broker has a 38 pence target.

I am not inclined to change my stance lately the consumer environment is getting worse no better in the UK.

CPI falling, worry over consumer debt.

[mister md] 06/7/2017 10:48

performing well vs the overall market today ...