De La Rue Share Discussion Threads

[thehearse] 24/11/2014 20:02

No major sell off in terms of volumes and price. Tomorrow's announcements appears to be a well kept secret I.e no leaks one way or the other.

[quepassa] 21/11/2014 08:53

Interims next Tuesday 25th. Nov

QP

[james smith] 20/11/2014 19:14

It will all come back.

[thehearse] 20/11/2014 18:15

Still here waiting to recover my 35% loss. Huge volumes have gone through today, appearing as sells but the price is up. Something stirring me thinks.

[mike24] 18/11/2014 11:27

Damien Green the british passport is one of the most secure documents produced,
how come the new style passports are becoming unusable when photo
becomes damp and fades beyond recognition within weeks? (as in humid climates)

passport office charging full whack to replace, not acknowledging any problems
as some have been stranded abroad

[james smith] 16/11/2014 22:34

Not doing too badly though is it, redartbmud?

[james smith] 03/11/2014 08:57

de la Rue in unique. It would not be in the national interest.

[redartbmud] 03/11/2014 08:56

James

That doesn't bode well for the Sp going forward.

BTW it hasn't stopped the foreigners taking over water and power companies.

red

[james smith] 03/11/2014 08:45

There is no chance at all that a foreign company will be allowed to take over de la Rue.

[randomwalker] 03/11/2014 08:20

Well, it would certainly be a lot cheaper than the last time Oberthur bid for them. The combined company would be vastly stronger in terms of pricing.

I wonder what level a bid would have to be in order to succeed? 650p ?

[quepassa] 03/11/2014 08:09

The week-end FT wrote:

" De La Rue edged 1per cent higher to 522.5p amid a reheat of speculation that French peer Oberthur could be looking at renewing its interest in the currency printer".

Page 22 Markets/Investing section.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[james smith] 26/10/2014 17:03

Banknote Market 2014 Analysis: De La Rue PLC, G&D (Geisecke & Devrient) Group and Fortress Paper Ltd. Reviewed in New Global Banknote Industry Report

DALLAS, October 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

Global Banknote Market Report: 2014 Edition is an industry research of 72 pages published in October 2014, which reviews De La Rue PLC, Geisecke & Devrient (G&D) Group and Fortress Paper Ltd. The global banknote industry has come a long way since the first fully printed paper money appeared in the middle of 19th century. Today, the industry is characterized by a constant that is change. Complete report is available with MarketReportsOnline.com at hxxp://www.marketreportsonline.com/369138.html .

The Global Banknote Market Report: 2014 Edition says this industry continues to be shaped and driven forth by regular developments in technologies highlighted by innovations primarily focusing on delivering newer security features to take on the industry's dominant threat: counterfeiting. Newer banknotes embodies a range of security features including 3D security ribbons, watermarks, security threads, portrait modifications and micro printing among others. To take the battle against counterfeiting a step further, countries across the world are increasingly turning towards basing their currencies on polymer substrate rather than the conventional paper substrate. Some are also experimenting with what can be called a hybrid substrate, consisting of the best features and abilities of both the substrates. Countries that have adopted polymer substrates have significantly reduced the risk of encountering counterfeit banknotes in their respective economies, notably New Zealand, Australia and Switzerland, although none reported the ride to be smooth.

Money supply in an economy is affected by a number of factors both at the macro level as well as at the micro level. Major macro factors influencing the amount of money in circulation include GDP, demography, and inflation; whereas the micro-level factors are user friendliness and safety, etc. Although there seems to be a rapid emergence of other modes of payment (including plastic money and electronic payment methods) aided by increasing penetration of internet and rising prosperity across the globe, but none can match the convenience and scale of the traditional mode of payment, i.e. cash which is keeping the industry afloat.

The following report contains the analysis of the banknote market on a global scale discussing its major segments and also provides detailed information regarding the key regional markets. Key market dynamics, including trends and industry developments have also been presented. The competition in the global banknote market is intense with few large players viz. De La Rue, Geisecke & Devrient (G&D) and Fortress Paper. In addition, global competitive landscape along with the profiles and key business strategies of the leading players in the market is discussed. Order a copy of this research at hxxp://www.marketreportsonline.com/contacts/purchase.php?name=369138 .

[james smith] 25/10/2014 19:08

LOL I went long at 490p.

[redartbmud] 25/10/2014 19:02

QP

Good analysis. Thanks.

red

[thewealthofsocrates] 25/10/2014 17:45

FT target price low is 490.
What's going on?
Any shorting?
Long squeeze, Long put or just long?

[quepassa] 23/10/2014 11:03

De La Rue currently trades on a PE ratio of 10.88x.

A fairly low PE ratio by any standards.

Perhaps this is a PE ratio which can be understood in relation to the Currency Printing and Cash Processing side/division of the De La Rue business given the competitive and mature market place in which it operates and relatively thin margins.

However, a PE ratio of 10.88x for its Security Products/Identity Systems division appears to me to be far too low. Especially at a time when security/cyber-security/ anti-hacking/anti-counterfeiting companies are highly sought after, the subject of much M&A activity, and trading on multiples which are far higher. This being because of the undoubtedly correct perception that there is a great need for these products and that these markets have massive growth potential.

De la Rue's new Chief Executive is Martin Sutherland who joined DLAR recently from BAE Systems Applied Intelligence where according to the relevant RNS:

"Martin has been responsible (at BAE) for the strategic expansion of the business internationally through both organic growth and a number of acquisitions. During his tenure as MD, revenues have more than doubled and the business today employs around 3,000 people across 26 offices worldwide, with over 50% of the revenue now coming from new lines of business in counter fraud, cyber security and communications solutions."

For the y/e to March 2014, it is eye-catching that against a flattish overall performance from De La Rue, the Underlying Operating profit from its Identity Systems division has raced ahead as follows

2010 £2.6m
2011 £2.4m
2012 £8.5m
2013 £16.3m
2014 £22m

Revenue in this Division was £32m in 2010 and had reached £77.6m for the recent y/e.


De La Rue appears to me to be a business of two halves but measured by just one yard-stick.

It was interesting to read in yesterday's FT that BAE Systems has just acquired New York based SilverSky which is a cyber security firm. SilverSky employs 400 people and is expected to generate sales of about $75million for y/e Dec 2014.
The FT article says this " is expected to be cash generative in the third year".
BAE paid $232.5m for SilverSky.

Whilst Silversky is in the field of cyber Security and De La Rue's Identity Systems appear to be more paper-based ( eg biometric passports) which are computer-readable and therefore linked to computer-based information checking/capturing systems, it is nonetheless interesting to ponder what might be the real value of De La Rue's Identity Systems division on a stand-alone basis which generated £78m of revenue in 2014 and £22m of Underlying Operating Profit, compared to the figures and price for SilverSky.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[samualpepys] 22/10/2014 13:06

Investec Reiterates “Hold” Rating for De La Rue plc (DLAR)

[samualpepys] 22/10/2014 13:06

De La Rue plc Stock Rating Lowered by Beaufort Securities (DLAR)

[samualpepys] 22/10/2014 13:03

Banknote Market 2014 Analysis: De La Rue PLC, G&D (Geisecke & Devrient) Group and Fortress Paper Ltd. Reviewed in New Global Banknote Industry Report

www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/banknote-market-2014-analysis-de-la-rue-plc-gd-geisecke--devrient-group-and-fortress-paper-ltd-reviewed-in-new-global-banknote-industry-report-279893972.html

[james smith] 19/10/2014 23:24

I wouldn't worry too much. de la Rue is like no other UK company. Behind the scenes it will be getting all sorts of support.

[thehearse] 19/10/2014 23:12

Looking at the trade volumes recorded last week no real bounce has started. Do you think the pros are waiting for Nov's results before committing themselves? Which implies they think there could be some more bad news to come, meaning another 15%-20% drop in share price I'm now feeling nervous.

[james smith] 19/10/2014 22:29

You can't possibly have a sense of humour, you are far too boring.

[thewealthofsocrates] 19/10/2014 22:27

Maybe I've just got a GSOH. Lighten up.

[casual47] 17/10/2014 11:05

Socrates....I'm beginning to think you are behind the fake M Sutherland twitter account. You make equally bizarre points.

Do you even understand what DLAR does??