De La Rue Share Discussion Threads

[jackdaw4243] 26/1/2022 16:39

In at 114 a modest investment that I hope will deliver some comfort to my portfolio that consists of Avon, Johnson Mathey and Hoschild Mining all that down to following a certain stock market Guru on ADVFN.

[jensen10] 26/1/2022 15:15

Bought in. New shareholder and probably long term holder. Good news

[webby] 26/1/2022 15:09

I can never understand these TR1's. Welcome trust now have 4.29% but have they bought in or sold some?

[farrugia] 26/1/2022 13:21

when omicron clobbered Malta De La Rue must have been impacted by more staff absences. But now that is past and things are going back to normal.

[meijiman] 25/1/2022 21:53

Correct London is the home of the shorter and the bot. Fundamentals based on earnings mean nothing. That is why so many UK companies are bid for as they are totally undervalued. The fund managers are mostly like sheep.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/1/2022 21:05

I am seeing some FTSE100 stocks valued at under 8 times earnings (POLY) when international direct competitors (Newmont) are valued at 25 times earnings. Similar, albeit not as extreme, with the likes of BP and Shell compared with Exxon, or (say) Barclays versus JP Morgan.

I see some (most) house builders (e.g. see RDW or TW. in particular that have just updated forecasts with trading statements) valued at 8 times earnings or less, when they have hundreds of millions of net cash and billions of net assets.

I see other companies similarly stupidly valued, a personal favourite being COST, which is valued at £125m, and yet it has net cash of some £110m, is cash profitable and on a 2022 earnings multiple of around 5, probably less.

To say the UK market is undervalued is something of an understatement - it's ludicrous. But it is what it is - you just have to make decisions accordingly.

[aringadingding] 25/1/2022 20:57

Imastu, with regards to Volvo's purchase price, I have not dug into the numbers, you may be right.

There were several Volvo mentions of "24/7" uptime, and this was something that was explicitly stated as not the case in the trading update (e.g. "lower total operational output for the full year"), so these statements would indeed conflict.

So fair play really, you might have a point.

Interesting to hear JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley call the UK undervalued today and look at median stock valuations as part of that. Guess we need economic growth to continue, and energy prices and inflation to ease, so market volatility and jitteriness can reduce and valuations go back to normal levels. At some point along the way I hope that certain stocks like DLAR might jump.

[jensen10] 25/1/2022 18:46

Disappointing results but interesting that net debt expectations are unchanged so no liquidity issues for the company. Company looking vulnerable to an opportunistic bid from overseas competitor such as Crane. Rumours a few years ago that they were talking. GBP weakness makes it even more favourable for a US bidder. Assuming any bidder can get comfortable with the pension deficit issues which is not a given for sure.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/1/2022 13:01

Really? It's all on the thread - just read back.

An example of it was him on his own positions - and reposted yesterday:



And later than that there was another example:



All that relentless buying, and yet his average was 152, down from (a made-up) 162 a few weeks before? 🤥


And in terms of facts about the earnings, challenged and not answered"



- through to 1875. Never mind the latest bad news - they were never going to be the numbers he was claiming before yesterday.


People always complain when someone points out negatives - they're always accused of being short or deramping. I'm neither, I'm positive about the company (especially at this price) - I just don't like liars.

[aringadingding] 25/1/2022 12:44

imastu, why don't you give some specific examples of things other people have said, and then demonstrate why they could not have been true? Unless you do that nobody will have a chance to defend themselves as to why they thought those specific things were true, or they still may have been true but other factors were more important.

Always keen to learn more.

With regards to buying more of these shares, I am going to be a net extractor of cash from the stock market in the coming months so no for me.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/1/2022 11:55

Because he was blatantly ramping and egging people on to buying more. And while people shouldn't act on the basis of that, they are likely to be influenced.

If there had just been optimism, that's one thing; lying and selectively ignoring facts that contradicted the porkies is another thing. You think that's OK and we shouldn't point it out?

Of course he doesn't have to apologise - I said at the time, I've seen far worse. But it does demonstrate that anything he said - or even says in future - should be ignored.

[masurenguy] 25/1/2022 11:13

Why does he have come back and admit that he was wrong? We all make good and bad investment judgement calls - you don't have to follow anyone elses opinion or advice.

[gargoyle2] 25/1/2022 11:02

Haha, not at all, but if I'd been as openly bullish about a stock, with predictions and assertions that were blatantly untrue (and which were challenged at the time), then I'd at least come back to say that I was wrong. Nothing to do with needing someone else's opinion.

[masurenguy] 25/1/2022 11:00

So what - can't you decide what to do without some other posters opinion?

[gargoyle2] 25/1/2022 10:51

Still no sign of Volvo?

[buywell3] 25/1/2022 06:11

imastu pidgitaswell2 4 Jan '22 - 08:40 - 1904 of 1920

Wot the charts and TA that you employed on VLX in 2019?

[chessman2] 25/1/2022 00:12

I bought more yesterday morning to reduce my average buying price and am confident the share price will rise during the coming months.

[financialfred] 24/1/2022 23:08

OK so will people on this chat forum still buy and invest in de la rue shares? After this latest trading update and given their history...

[aringadingding] 24/1/2022 22:12

Hi Eric, i agree it's an important assumption. That is a nominal number though, so can be broken down into 2.5% inflation and 1.5% real terms growth which fundamentally comes from real economic growth (averaged across many countries and two main product lines).

It sounds pretty conservative when you put it like that. My understanding is global physical currency markets are growing by 3% per annum at present. Polymer growth rates must be much higher.

Ideally they would simply win a load of chunky contracts over the coming years.

[pireric] 24/1/2022 21:34

aring - Why would you use a 4% terminal growth rate for this business? It's hardly the next high growth software company so that's extremely generous. For most companies I'd pin towards 2% and at the absolute best, I'd want to use 1% for DLAR given the mix of revenue activities

Eric

[gargoyle2] 24/1/2022 21:19

Re my post 1913, odd that in November they compared FY trading to 'Board's expectations', but today they give the range of 'market expectations'. Are they the same as the Board's expectations? Why can't they just refer to market expectations all the time? Sneaky imo.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 24/1/2022 21:13

1912 - I basically agree. The mark-down was too much.

I just didn't have any spare funds - but I think even if I had, I would probably have waited for the dust to settle. But anything at 110-115 is and will stay a very good price, imho.

I was always positive about the company - less so about the selective posting of a certain poster; there were reasons to be cautious, as we have seen. From here, from this price, I am (more or less) very keen.

[gargoyle2] 24/1/2022 19:40

Vacher and the FD need to be seen to be buying at this level imo, if they are to retain any credibilty after telling investors 2 months ago that the company would report in line results -- although, having said that, they did use the old 'in line with the Board's expectations' (weasel words), rather than market expectations).