De La Rue Share Discussion Threads

[volvo] 19/1/2022 09:00

ff yes and the pe rating just goes lower and lower....so what happens next?

[financialfred] 19/1/2022 08:07

Volvo
Yet the share price at 150-160p?

[volvo] 18/1/2022 16:29

Whats going to happen here?

The company continues to trade strongly, new polymer presses are filling up to double capacity and Authentication goes from strength to strength.

CA over hang surely must get taken out soon

[volvo] 12/1/2022 18:21

deanowls youll read it, the print industry knows it.

[deanowls] 12/1/2022 18:17

Volvo where is it from about looking at ordering more presses?

[jensen10] 12/1/2022 18:02

Company should announce a share buyback to clear the overhang now that they can restart shareholder distributions.

[volvo] 12/1/2022 17:19

Thanks zho.

DLAR could be printing polymer notes for the next 100 years......the order book is full, the new presses are full and i know they are looking at ordering more presses, the demand is so strong.

Surely time for someone with some nerve to step up and buy the CA stake and then we can all move on

[zho] 12/1/2022 15:25

#DLAR due a trading update. Sold off from £2 hit after I wrote in 157p in March. Forecasts eps of 15.4p and then 22.2p taking the PE down to mid single digit. They really could do with better PR - a problem of a small co that thinks it's still a big co.

[volvo] 03/1/2022 08:11

De La Rue
Why has the share price not performed in 2021 as I hoped it would? The market is concerned about a potential overhang of De La Rue shares. Crystal Amber Fund (CRS) had a continuation vote at its AGM as per its constitution. It needed a 75 per cent vote in favour, which it failed to reach. US hedge fund Saba Capital voted its 26.2 per cent stake against continuation. Crystal Amber’s articles require it to “formulate proposals to reorganise, reconstruct or wind up the fund”. This matters for De La Rue shareholders as Crystal Amber has a 9 per cent stake. The fear is that Crystal Amber will now be a forced seller of its stake as it liquidates its position. This eventuality is something that Saba Capital has anticipated by taking out a short position in De La Rue to benefit from the fall.

Crystal Amber responded: “In the coming weeks, the fund intends to provide shareholders with specific proposals. It is currently envisaged that these will centre around the continued realisation of assets and increasing capital returns to shareholders. Based on the Manager’s assessment of the status and timing of anticipated corporate transactions, the fund is targeting additional shareholder returns of at least £40 million or 50p a share before 30 June 2022. This would bring returns of capital since the 2013 amendment to the Articles to more than £100 million. When such disposals are concluded, it is intended that returns to shareholders would be paid as soon as practicable. Further significant realisations and returns of capital are planned for the period after 30 June 2022.”

It looks as if there is no hurry for Crystal Amber to sell its stake, but eventually, it will end up in other hands. That might be through dripping it into the market or, better, in big chunks to other institutional buyers or perhaps even a trade buyer. At some stage, Saba Capital must close its short position. I am inclined to stick with De La Rue because if management keeps delivering the recovery plan, value will eventually be realised. On Investec’s numbers, the shares are valued at 8.8 times earnings for the year about to end in March 2022, falling to 6.7x March 2023 and 5.9x March 2024

[volvo] 31/12/2021 12:31

There will be a January trading statement, probably week 3 dyor.

[masurenguy] 23/12/2021 10:53

Now up circa 14% over the past 4 weeks ! 🙂

[sphere25] 22/12/2021 15:37

Nibbled a few more here.

It is early days but the movement in the price is different to before. Before you just had this continual sell down and little bits of selling moving the price down a great deal. Now we are seeing selling being gobbled up and the price moving higher on the back of it.

Much of this will be on the back of the previously highlighted buyers coming in for shares in the 145p-147p mark.

Clearly reading short term price moves can be meaningless, but judging by the moves in the price, I would say there are a few more speculating around the early 150's who are happy to gobble up some shares here.

DLAR is lumpy and markets are fluid, alot going on out there too, but at least there is some stability and signs of a bottom in DLAR.

All imo
DYOR

[imastu pidgitaswell] 22/12/2021 10:23

Except your facts are wrong. Which you have ignored, along with the questions about what you wrote as facts. Believe me, I have done the research and made over 400% in 2 days through doing so.

I'm all for enthusiasm, and I think the current price is good (not exceptional) value - but there is no benefit in overstating the case.

[volvo] 22/12/2021 10:06

ip, my over optimism is actually based on facts based on my own research.

Facts that the company are running at 100pc capacity, while prudently managing its finances, what more can any company do?

No, the markets had made their minds up that a cashless society is all but here, and DLAR do not fit in with that. Throw in the Crystal Amber situation, hence the share price weakness.

.....except the orders keep coming thick and fast.

No 2022 will indeed be a transformational year for DLAR imo, and I suggest you or anyone else who's interested, please DYOR, then you can only blame yourself if your chosen share does not live up to your expectations

[kooba] 22/12/2021 09:40

Best bet is still a takeover to extract the real commercial value , the two parts of business are worth far more separately imo. If they can ring fence any pension liability i can imagine much interest in both parts at a significant premium relative to implied market value.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 22/12/2021 08:50

"Great bet from here imo"

I might agree at this price - but you were saying that at over 200 as well.



The earnings ratio is not 6.6 for 2023. And what do you mean by 2023 anyway - the year end is 31st March. Do you mean the year to March 2023, or March 2024?

I do wish you would stop the (let's be kind) over-optimism - it's misleading, and you've been at that all of this year, since when the share price has fallen from over 200. Anyone following your views would be well out of pocket.




The earnings are not going to double between 2021/22 and 2023/24, never mind 2022/23.

[aishah] 22/12/2021 08:37

An orderly wind up is sensible. Should reflect positively in the other companies they hold as well.

[volvo] 22/12/2021 08:16

Gar, as Vacher clearly said at the results phone in, CA will do what they have to do, and the directors will carry on with the turnaround plan.

With a projected pe of 6.6 for 2023 this company is super cheap....and the way its looking if Polymer banknote production goes up by 130pc (capacity increase) in 2022 and Malta doubles its authentication capacity, this company value will accelerate in 2022.

Great bet from here imo

[gargoyle2] 22/12/2021 07:35

Crystal Amber this morning: "Given the substantial progress achieved by the Fund with its activist strategy to date on these holdings [including DLAR], the Fund expects to have realised these investments within 24 months."

It looks like the overhang might be there for a bit longer -- or, at least, that's what CA would have us believe.

[gargoyle2] 21/12/2021 19:37

I'm tempted to add at this level, especially given the Saba/CA dynamics. However, I'm slightly disappointed that Vacher hasn't bought more shares. £150k at 110p in the June 2020 placing and then nothing since then. Would be good to see him showing more confidence in the prospects -- with a comp package last year of over £1.1 million, I would have expected more skin in the game.

[masurenguy] 21/12/2021 17:07

Added a few more today. Short positions declining from 2.78% to 1.59% over the past 4 months and shareprice up by 7% over the past 3 weeks.

[deanowls] 21/12/2021 10:27

Momentum investor? Only momentum is down at the moment. 😂

[financialfred] 21/12/2021 10:03

250p right

[volvo] 21/12/2021 09:55

Yes, the edifice is starting to crumble, Saba will be buying stock to close their short at the same time Crystal Amber is talking to Shroders to sell its stake lol....either way decent stock to hold heading into 2022, going well over 250p easily