De La Rue Share Discussion Threads

[faz] 13/4/2021 07:28

And well done to them for repaying furlough money, albeit the total was only £0.4m.

[ayl30] 13/4/2021 07:15

Rns- solid performance by the look of it. Let's see what the market makes of it

[simmsc] 10/4/2021 21:32

No vaccine passport premium is priced into DLAR

[bookbroker] 10/4/2021 08:31

A lotta hype potentially built in to this company’s perceived involvement in vaccine passports, they are looking more remote due to privacy concerns, so it is the currency and existing authentication side that will determine valuation. There were one or two caveats in last statement, so results will reveal more.

[dougmachin] 10/4/2021 00:33

imastu - ok.

I think worth watching this one next week for any further drop and then add more.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/4/2021 14:44

doug - I was here back at the start of June, when it went up 400% in 2 days. So I'm quite attached to this one - but nevertheless, always look at things from a prospective earnings multiple perspective - is it cheap or is it expensive on a 1 to 2 year view?

I'm not keen to wade back in at the volumes I had before, as I don't want to lose those banked gains.

[dougmachin] 09/4/2021 12:43

Just re-reading my notes:

[1] Results to be announced on 26th May 2021.
[2] From the trading statement, "adjusted operating profit to be 36-37 million, compare with expected 34 million"

[3] From TMI article, the authentication division to double profits from 11.2m to 24m between FY'21-23. This is the work with Government Revenue Solutions. "Out of the 59 governments that have ratified FCTC, as many as 30 are yet to implement the scheme". The scheme deadline is 2025.

[4] Crystal Amber increasing on 30th October (at about 140p)

[5] Did Schroders take a big increase on 6th August to 10%?

[6] InterTrader selling down below 3% on 19th August. Maybe they're selling some more??

Lots of other info from TMI, but my strong conclusion is the same as 'imastu pidgitaswell' should be looking for a time to get some more of these at the bounce point !!

Cheers
DM

[coscos] 09/4/2021 09:23

Strange fall back last few days, especially in view of top end profits to be announced in May. Think Crystal Amber were adding at these levels recently.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/4/2021 09:03

180, given how strong a resistance it was.

Not saying it will get there, but it's a very obvious support level.

Not currently holding - so being selfish, I'd quite like 180....

[dougmachin] 09/4/2021 08:56

What does anyone think the support levels are?
Presumably this is just a few people locking in some profits, worried it may go lower.
Hoping this is a new bounce level here.
Also, anyone know when a trading update is due or results are (sorry, being lazy!)?
Thank you
DM

[evianone] 04/4/2021 23:05

Let hope with all the news about vaccine passport and Merkel pushing for sticker lockdown that Del La Rue benefit, think it bodes well over the next 3 months for holders

[bigbigdave] 04/4/2021 11:51

DLAR last November : We are in discussions with several governments regarding .....and in early discussion regarding COVID-19 immunity certification schemes

[eigthwonder] 31/3/2021 19:11

Saba are large shareholders in Crystal Amber who are large investors in DLAR. I suspect Saba are merely hedging their Crystal Amber long with a short here. In other words I think it is a case of “nothing to see here”

[sphere25] 31/3/2021 15:22

Noted one other variable at play here, which (further to the posts above) could explain why the breaks higher aren't holding at the moment with the price being regularly sold back down.

There are shorts being fed in here by Saba Capital Management (unsure if any other shorts are working in the market too under the disclosable net 0.5% threshold). The last one disclosed on the 26th March where they had been dripping shorts into the market to increase their short position from 1.37% to 1.48%.

When we first start, I'm sure shorts are viewed at their very worst. Clearly it can still be hard to view them favourably (particularly when something goes wrong), but that is the market - learnt to accept them over time.

Clearly it is all about the fundamentals and if the news continues to be good, then the shorts can also easily get blown out of the water. Ultimately, there are all kinds of opposing views and we play the field regardless of the players.

The sun is out, 20 degrees.

Long ice cream!

(Easiest trade of the day)

All imo
DYOR (even on warm weather goodies)

[discodave45] 25/3/2021 17:50

Thanks again for your feedback.I don't have the skills to be a day trader!, just interested in trying to get my longer term entry point right, nothing worse than drowning from the off and once in I will likely hold for a couple of years.All the best

[sphere25] 25/3/2021 17:31

No problem discodave45,

DLAR isn't the easiest share to trade, it is a more difficult one as it carries a larger liquidity factor and therefore gaps alot, moving up and down through numerous price points in a flash e.g. 206-210p in one fair swoop.

Naturally there are alot of experienced folk in the market so the information in the post above is nothing to them, but also alot less experienced, and so many new folk too so some insight there.

If there are long term folk who want a go at short term trading too (seen as how topical it is and so many are having a go), it is a little something too. It is all about mapping those key price points and not over complicating it in my humble opinion.

Note how the price did bounce back off 200p as well as the actual breakout level from yesterdays move at lunchtime - all psychological and technical levels at play. As you rightly point out the wider market moves can have influence too.

A good place to start for newer folk to learn are the smaller caps as they are easier to read, they move less, sit around doing nothing for long periods so it becomes easier to spot anomalous activity with those rather than something like DLAR or a larger cap which is flashing and moving about alot more and mimic an index.

It is all about observation and mapping out the trades. Another good recent example of mapping out key price points is a more speculative one in FUM. Noted 40p as a key technical point.

When it went through, it just went abit rocket ship. They don't all go to space, but it is just an example of mapping. Also observe how the previous post there mentioned 55p as a key support mark to watch, where the price had originally bounced off a few times.

It went through today, but then the price came back intraday to re-test that very price point (yes that VERY price point), where it knocked its head and then fell away a tad into the close. It is very apparent how the market is watching and gathering at these mapped out price points. Not suggesting getting involved with high riskers like FUM, just a very recent example that I can think of where all these key price points come into play.

Usually go on about liking to see big buyers come in with the mop and go about mopping (up sellers to allow potential breaks higher) but clearly mapping is very important too.

Get your mops and maps out!

All the best.

All imo
DYOR

[discodave45] 25/3/2021 15:19

Thank you Sphere25, your views are appreciated.I've been watching this for a while, mainly as a long term recovery play, but noticed since Oct that the EMA100 was providing support, then early March it broke its previous short term intraday high (c 185) and looked eager to go above 195-200. Looked like positive momentum was building so wanted to dip in when breakout was confirmed. But as you say it did break above 202 but has immediately pulled back - guess more to do with today's market jitters again.No expert but still looks like it's set to break 202 some time soon?.Thanks again though, very useful to pick someone else's more experienced brain.Good luck.

[sphere25] 25/3/2021 12:39

Price currently 203p

Discodave45,

I had stuck this on the monitor after noting Crystal Amber buying as well as the short term bullish trend since late February. I then marked a breakout point above 203p and a support level under 200p in the event that it went wrong (often I just simplify it with two lines, a support and a resistance, and then if it fails I cut it straight away and take a small loss).

Noticed it edging higher toward that breakout point and waited. After lunch, when the bid-offer was 202-203p, watched it closer to see if it would break out. Then shortly after as the time approached 12:30, the order book perked up with stronger demand on the bid as the price went to 203.5p-204.5p. When you watch the book longer you do notice builds in demand.

Executed a trade at that point trying to play the breakout and posted the trade write up at 12:32 - tricky to see the trade, execute it and then do the post on ADVFN because sometimes the price moves as you're typing up.

The demand for shares did play out as the price spiked shortly after and went over 210p topping out at 213p intraday. Now hindsight is a wonderful thing with the price now at 203p and being down on the trade.

Clearly should have scalped for a quick profit, but I thought there would be more to come, because when a price breaks out like this in a proper company share (as oppose to high risk speculative shares that can do pretty much anything), the majority of the time it stays broken out (even if it comes off the highs abit and consolidates for abit) and then there is more of a profit to be had.

Naturally other factors like news or a bigger seller lurking waiting for the breakout to happen before selling into the demand to prevent the breakout can come into the equation. There have been numerous examples where the price has broken out and continued higher, BUT IT IS GOOD TO SHOW EXAMPLES WHERE A TRADE DOESN'T WORK.

From a purely technical and very short term trading view, the scalpers have won the day here by lobbing over 210p and I'm sure they will look for another opportunity should 200p keep holding.

I guess this is a further intricacy for all short term traders - how do we differentiate between scalps and hanging on abit longer for potentially more reward, particularly considering the illiquidity or general lumpy nature of some price moves.

Though not the best example, something like DLAR can show some form of importance to this aspect of trading.

Even though a rules based approach can work very well, it is still not a one way street and impossible to read every price movement correctly.


Anywho, hope this provides some insight for all readers.


All imo
DYOR

[discodave45] 25/3/2021 10:56

What price did you guys gave to confirm breakout?Thanks (I'm not a TA but interested)

[ltinvestor] 24/3/2021 13:48

Breakout confirmed....

[sphere25] 24/3/2021 12:32

Price currently 204.5p

Nibbled a few for a breakout play. Stick a stop under 200p though it will be a closely monitored mental one as the price movements hare are very gappy i.e. could be prone to a wider spread in the mornings if the book hasn't filled properly.

This is threatening a break higher and continuation of the break higher (and bull trend) in late February. Crystal Amber adding here. Noted that they have been aggressive buyers in the past though no idea how many they might want here.


All imo
DYOR

[simmsc] 23/3/2021 22:01

This is a great share to hold. I got in at about the 40-50p level when they collapsed as pandemic started. Sold at about 140p after they shot up so much last year. Then bought back at 160p because i decided i still like dlar's long term growth potential, as a long term hold. I'm confident that the Australian passport deal they won is only the beginning of more to come.

[evianone] 23/3/2021 19:38

looks like somebody has been accumulating (Crystal Amber) chart looks very strong :-)

[ltinvestor] 22/3/2021 15:27

Nice move today....