Dawson Share Discussion Threads

[erniemadoff] 08/6/2011 17:22

Cheers CR, at least we have a few weeks for another bid to materialise.

Ernie.

[cockneyrebel] 08/6/2011 17:04

I think it would be 20p or there abouts but NWS would then come in for a higher bid imo - 22p then I'd say - and then they'd get it.

CR

[erniemadoff] 08/6/2011 17:01

If another bidder does come into the race, what does everyone think that they will offer? I think 22p imo.

Ernie.

[cockneyrebel] 08/6/2011 16:44

Yep, even in the Times today they are saying it's gone on the cheap

CR

[barnetpeter] 08/6/2011 16:43

"Group performance exceeded expectations, driven by clear progress in each of the businesses"

Great call by CR at 4p and I have a nice few. But the price? Hmmm. It was just beginning to motor.

[markt] 08/6/2011 16:21

BTW
interesting

artemis and gartmore agreement to the deal/offer is withdrawn if there is a higher offer, more than 10% higher ...


" if any third party
offer for Dawson is announced in accordance with Rule
2.5 of the City Code at a price that is 10 per cent.
greater than the then offer price of the Offers made
by Smiths News to acquire Dawson."

[davydoo] 08/6/2011 11:29

I took some off the table for a number of reasons. The rise made my total holding a larger percentage of my portfolio than im happy with. Also a lesson I learnt with a company called EtChina ETC a year or so ago, they were a Chinese travel co. with an offer to be bought out by major shareholder Kuoni. I sold my entire holding in the market before the offer at a 5% haircut, but the deal went sour, Kuoni pulled out and the co. was delisted from AIM, anyone waiting had a total loss.

I appreciate this is an extreme example, Chinese AIM vs UK FTSE, but it just taught me a lesson that I promised I would stick to.

I also have other investments ive been wanting to make, whilst waiting for the bid news pending since Jan, so now I can get on with these. Shorting CPR before their results being one.

If I was Smiths I would be buying every possible share going, they must know theyre getting a good deal, and must realise a counter bid is a possibility, therefore the more they can acquire in the market, the less they have to pay out at the offer price, and the more they would gain if a counter bid emerged, in raw cash terms if they had to sell (on top of the penalty payment), and also by forcing a rival to pay as much as possible to get Dawson Books and put pressure on the competition for their own Bertrams business.

[protean] 08/6/2011 11:11

True CR. There's a whole penny still to go so daft giving the cash to the MMs. But I guess many don't have the patience or maybe have to sell to make up for losses elsewhere if they're leveraged.

It's almost tempting to get some more each time the offer comes down to 17p - a small but definite profit in a difficult market.

[cockneyrebel] 08/6/2011 11:05

when did ADVFN traders have patience protean? :-)

1p off the takeover price is over 5% - that's a prett much guaranteed 5% over a month or so. I'd have thought in the current market you're better off having your cash locked in this for a month then spend it when you get it with that additional 5%.

But traders can't wait - if it was 0.25p I might take it but 1p under the bid price is a bit of a haircut imo.

Smiths will want to be buying this stock that's being sold too - they are in pocket if they buy in the market here @ 17.5p so why let them have them at 16.75p?

CR

[protean] 08/6/2011 10:58

Reading the offer document, it could take some time (at least 48 days?) until money is returned to current shareholders should the offer be accepted. Maybe that explains some people selling out just now.

28 days - "The Offer Document will be sent to Dawson Shareholders as soon as practicable and in any event within 28 days of this announcement."

x days - time required for the offer documents to be completed, sent back and information collated.

20 days - "Smiths News intends to procure as soon as possible after the Offers becoming or being declared unconditional in all respects, that Dawson will make an application to the UK Listing Authority for the listing of the Dawson Ordinary Shares to be cancelled and to the London Stock Exchange for the Dawson Ordinary Shares to cease to be admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. It is anticipated that such cancellations will take effect no earlier than 20 business days after the Ordinary Offer becomes or is declared unconditional in all respects."

[protean] 08/6/2011 09:38

Interesting these sales coming in.

80k there at 16.992. That's 0.73p beneath the takeover price or £584 missed out on even without a counter bid.

Patience is a virtue.

[dazzaa] 07/6/2011 22:59

Have we changed the thread?

[deleted] 07/6/2011 21:08

Markt, what is your opinion on ASTO?
Thanks

[markt] 07/6/2011 19:31

Dawson almost doubled recently...offer...

ILX would make a good acquisition for another company imho

With 1.4M PBT (on-going business, 1 part closed/off-loaded at end of Dec 2010)....if buy the co. and get rid of 1/2M dirs. costs, 1/2M say for AIM, 100k for other dirs, pay off the debt to save 100k ('were' paying high % , now lower, now down to approx. 1M on next accounts imho) and maybe bits and pieces to add up to another 1/2M then 1.5M cost saving maybe...

1.4M PBT + 1.5M extra profit due to cost reduction = approx. 3M.PBT

And cap. value is 7M.

CAP. VALUE/EBITDA = 2.5 !

[cockneyrebel] 07/6/2011 19:27

ILX is interesting, but it has always looked cheap, and stil gets cheaper - I'm sure the market is telling investors something isn't right there. I've gone to buy them seceral times and resisted thankfully. I'd be interested in a shout if that chart ever changed to the good very suddenly.

CR

[markt] 07/6/2011 19:23

Dawson almost doubled recently...offer...

looking round to see any other companies as attractive bid targets

ILX would make a good acquisition for another company imho...elearning etc, has products available on line for purchase incl. 'apps'. (see what apps download numbers + RNS did for Cupid share price !, 130p to 190p in a few days)
OK, ILX is not very apps exposed at present....nothing stopping new products to expand in that area...

With declared expected 1.4M PBT (see RNS)....if buy the co. and get rid of 1/2M dirs. costs, 1/2M say for AIM, 100k for other dirs, pay off the debt to save 100k ('were' paying high % , now lower, now down to approx. 1M on next accounts imho) and maybe bits and pieces to add up to another 1/2M then 1.5M cost saving maybe...

1.4M PBT + 1.5M extra profit due to cost reduction = approx. 3M.

And cap. value is only 7M. (cap. value is less than turnover, unusual imho)

CAP. VALUE/EBITDA = 2 ! Super cheap !..too cheap

And global sales. offices abroad. Rapid growth in sales. And 1.8M PBT pencilled in for next year. The price doesn't make sense to me, except that perhaps the market needs to see the actual annual results officially published before it takes any notice...

What other co. would/could perhaps be interested in a co. like ILX ?
Any ideas ? (perhaps from outside UK....not many/any bigger elearning cos. in the UK that I can think of)....there is a smaller elearning co. but I assume they could not afford ILX....

Pearson are interested in elearning and doing acquisitions...but not in the specific products that ILX currently offer I think...professional qualifications...whereas Pearson is more involved I think in mass markets sales/clients...although there is a weak link of sorts with financial sector, the FT and selling data/news ...well ILX sell financial training courses as some of the their courses...and did classroom courses for investment banks till they closed CTG

In USA I assume there must be some elearning cos.....an acquisition to provide cross selling, access to overseas sales offices...surely useful for some co. out there....

[cockneyrebel] 07/6/2011 17:48

"by providing the certainty of a cash offer at a significant premium to Dawson's share price"

That looks like an advert to the other bidder that are about that they need to stump up cash.

17.7p is nailed on, NWS aren't allowed to back out unless something extremely material occurs, Dawsonera burning down so I'll sit back and wait for my 17.72p to come into my account and my shares to get gobbled up or I'll see another bidder move in with a higher bid.

CR

[llwyd] 07/6/2011 17:44

Agree CR, we would have seen 17p fairly soon, the sniff of a bid along with Schroders clearing has perhaps held these back.

[abc125] 07/6/2011 17:41

Commenting on the Offers, Hugh Cawley, Chief Executive of Dawson said:

"The Board of Dawson believes that Smiths News's offers, by providing the certainty of a cash offer at a significant premium to Dawson's share price, is an excellent outcome for shareholders. This follows the Board's successful restructuring and turnaround plan, which first rescued the Dawson Group from the risk of administration and more recently returned the group to profit growth, culminating in a number of expressions of interest being received from potential buyers of the whole or parts of the business.


Looks like more than one bidder was interested.

[protean] 07/6/2011 17:37

Current bid of 16.75 still a fair way off the 17.72 offered for the company.

Hopefully the price will drift higher over coming days and with any luck above the 17.72 if other potential bidders are circling.

[cockneyrebel] 07/6/2011 17:10

Can't imagine funds new anything of the price - Schroders were selling all the time way lower. I reckon they got a whisper of 17p a few days ago and stopped selling. I think Schwartz got wind of something too - that was a pretty good guess of his.

Doesn't preclude another bidder yet tho - any co reading that NWS are buying this on an EBITDA of 3.4 may move swift.

At the end of the day this is a stock take over where if the bid hadn't materialised the shares would be higher imo.

CR

[davydoo] 07/6/2011 16:31

Interesting point Dazzaa, I wonder how long ago the funds and PPF were first approached about the bid and possible value of an offer? makes me wonder if the announcement was rushed out a little sooner than intended to ensure there was still a premium to the market price as the share price shot up over the past few days.