Dart Share Discussion Threads

[woozle1] 12/12/2018 20:17

It's bedtime you little monkeys!
w1

[joe king1] 12/12/2018 18:33

I have HAAS, it's a dire company and will decline.
Share price will be much more south from here in 8 months time.

The wise are offloading to the unwise!

[highasashite] 12/12/2018 15:48

JK, you've got this company sussed pal

Agree with you re 300p
It's collapsing and will snowball down

[joe king1] 12/12/2018 15:13

Sub 500p coming early 2019, 300p or less by mid 2019

[joe king1] 12/12/2018 15:12

Castleford Tiger - 11 Dec 2018 - 02:57:26 - 5966 of 5977
Thomas Cook - Fankhauser's Flyers - TCG

Heading to test a new closing lowin my opinion
Tiger

................................................

This old duffing kunt was Compelled to post at 0257 am to say a new low is coming for tcg


lmfao



SELL SELL SELL SELL

fuqin mega sell, r'soles left holding this sinking company.

[castleford tiger] 12/12/2018 13:59

TCG also pulling out of Leeds.

Jet 2 will be 85 plus % of capacity there FROM the spring

Tiger

[wagnerlove] 12/12/2018 13:56

If - and this is of course a big if - Dart could lower second half operating loss margin from negative 11% to just negative 8%, then on current consensus revenues for 19/20 you get to £1.35 in EPS. On a 12X multiple, which is not crazy, stock would be worth £16.24, or double from where it is now in a year and a half. I don't think those are wildly optimistic assumptions, and if I am even half right I will be very happy.

[tongosti] 12/12/2018 13:16

Except propaganda in chief didn't see anyone else buying on the cheap this week?What's going on? Not worth loading up on the next Apple??

[snorkelparker] 12/12/2018 12:39

They don't do the ski packages it's more flight to ski destination..If could start package ski holidays then its a winner. higher margin holiday business

[meijiman] 12/12/2018 12:22

Skiing is good for Dart!!!

[snorkelparker] 12/12/2018 11:34

Thanks Wagner,

My thoughts are similar to yours with respect to trying to gain a handle on FY EPS coming to a similar conclusion on possible final number in the 1.1 plus range.

But also have the following comment, on using % for loses on revenue indicated. The larger the revenue slice for H2 the higher the quantum of loss as an actual figure.

My thoughts are that if the introduction of bases and flying programs increasing the traffic and rev during this period, this would have the effect of bringing down the historic H2 % losses because there would effectively be more GP to offset against fixed overheads for the period.

My assumption is that flights sold and packages still carry a similar GP to those in the summer.

So in the event that Jet2 makes better than expected sales in H2 then losses as a % of Revenue will fall.

SNK

[fokker45] 12/12/2018 10:44

Thanks Wagner - I believe your methodology is reasonable, and assuming nothing fundamentally changes, 111p is a more realistic outcome than the 95p from the analysts. Interesting going back through the figures, but H1/FY revenue used to be 52pc back in 2002-2005, but over last 5 years has been around 71pc, showing how much more seasonal the business has become.

[wagnerlove] 11/12/2018 19:02

Fokker - This is way I look at it. Jet2 historically does around 70% of its full year sales by end of first half each year, or specifically between 27% and 30% of FY revenues in H2 for last three years. (They don't split this out. You can work this out by subtracting sales in H1 November results from full year total).

On the c.30 per cent of FY revenues generated in winter months (October to March) it has over last three years posted an operating margin on those sales of negative, or minus 11-13 per cent. (You can work H2 loss each year by subtracting half year operating profit from full year operating profit).

So, if you take November 2018 half year results as 70% of full year £2247m total revenues, you get £963m in sales for second half (£3210m in total for this year). Put that on operating marging of minus 11%, and that is a loss of £105m, or c.71p operating loss per share. FY operating profit for this year would then be £337.4m op profit made in H1, minus the £105m loss in H2, equalling £232.4m in total operating profits.

Then subtract estimated £25m in interest to get £207.4m, and tax it at 20% (conservative, as adjusted tax rate has been below 15%) to get net profit of £166m. Or about £1.11 per share in EPS for this year. To be clear,my EPS number is 17% above consenus.

[fokker45] 11/12/2018 18:18

If the analysts are still saying EPS of 95p for FY2019, then H2 EPS will be -91p. Based on past 6 year H1/H2 splits, H2 should be about -64p giving a full year EPS of 122p, although the worst case would be 106p, and best case 140p based on worst/best splits in last 6 years.

I do suspect Brexit nerves may see earnings being lower than normal, so 95p may be a possibility. However, worries about TCG may give us some extra customers and cancel out any Brexit concerns.

Will just have to be patient until July to find out.

[woozle1] 11/12/2018 15:43

You'll see plenty if you scroll back and ignore the posts from Tongo (best filter him, if you are interested).
w1

[pawpawman] 11/12/2018 15:39

I don't see much research being posted on this BB.

Is that too much to hope for?

[joe king1] 11/12/2018 15:31

Castleford Tiger - 11 Dec 2018 - 02:57:26 - 5966 of 5977
Thomas Cook - Fankhauser's Flyers - TCG

Heading to test a new closing lowin my opinion
Tiger

................................................

This old duffing kunt was Compelled to post at 0257 am to say a new low is coming for tcg


lmfao

[wagnerlove] 11/12/2018 15:21

Another thing- Steve Heapy announced in Travel Weekly interview few days ago that Dart are going to buy new planes. He said: "We are in the process of buying some more, which will allow us to put extra routes on sale.” So, either Meeson is stupid/nuts and deciding to spend millions more of his own money on new planes to put capacity into a shrinking market, or he thinks prospects look pretty solid going forward.

[snorkelparker] 11/12/2018 14:14

Yep that clears that up.. thks ..

[wagnerlove] 11/12/2018 14:06

We are getting mixed up here between calendar and financial years. There are only two analysts that cover the stock, Arden and Cannacord, the house brokers. The estimates for 2018/19 financial, due to be published this coming July 2019, were left unchanged by Arden at c. 95p at November results. The estimates for FY 2019/20 financial year, published in July 2020, however were revised down by Arden from 94p to 82p. Cannacord cut to similar level, based on rising costs. So current "market consensus" is earnings fall 13% from this full year results to next. I think, as has happened in the past, these will be proven to be overly conservative.

[snorkelparker] 11/12/2018 12:56

Guys

I thought it was the YE 2020 eps that was down graded ?
What are the current analyst expectations that have been published and which from which brokerage ?

What is your consensus for YE2019 I'm working on 1.1 with a possible beat do you think am I off the mark ?

SNK

[castleford tiger] 11/12/2018 12:44

2020 has not been revised as the 2019 one was.
Thats why its out of kilter.
2020 eps be about 110p;

tiger

[tongosti] 11/12/2018 12:21

Super Idiots- Are also usually recognised as Fake Accountants- They also look for the next Apple in very unusual places. Btw, does the above dip in the market today to take advantage of dirt cheap prices??

[tongosti] 11/12/2018 12:15

Super IDIOTS- usually have an impaired vision of reality. Example: a bearish case presented to the very last day (£9.5 a share mind you) prior to latest "smashing" results has been fully vindicated with shares currently sitting £7.8Go figure who's a muppet on here!

[woozle1] 11/12/2018 12:08

Agreed S44.
w1