Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[multibagger] 04/11/2019 11:39

Re 827

My take is that in the RNS there was no context whatsoever for the delay and that winded the SP, rather than the Ukraine/Bangladesh issue per se.

The Arden Note gives more information regarding the contract process, political context, smart meter roll out policy amendments etc and thereby allows people to form/take a more balanced view.

If all this stuff can be published in a publicly available Research Note, then why couldn't have been RNSsed in the first instance ?

The exhumation of NIK contract the totally uncalled for and unnecessary - that may be added another nail in the coffin.

YJ asleep at the wheel and clueless for a PR company.....

[multibagger] 04/11/2019 11:29

Thanks davep4 for your input re 2G/3G and legacy issues.

Looks like some background buying going on, as bid not dropping despite onslaught of sells today.

[dave4545] 04/11/2019 11:18

I'll wait until the twitter pump and dump squad move on then I might get some around 2p, some desperate ramping on this one today, they clearly have no intention of holding the stock more than 1/2 days

[davep4] 04/11/2019 10:29

My observation is that the share price has principally reacted to:

"CyanConnode has carried out a review of its order book. In 2017, orders worth $48 million received from NIK LLC were announced, for territories including Bangladesh and Ukraine, with deployments expected to be over a three-year period. Whilst the Company is still in dialogue with NIK LLC regarding a rollout of these orders, the Board does not believe revenue will be received from those orders in the near term. The Company's current order book, (excluding the NIK LLC contracts), is now GBP40 million."

[multibagger] 04/11/2019 07:54

Let's hope that the market takes some comfort from the Arden Note and stimulates some buying.

[multibagger] 04/11/2019 07:42

Why the hell was the above context not mentioned in the equitycide RNS ? (my neologism for a RNS that kills an equity - coined in dubious honour of CYAN)

[multibagger] 04/11/2019 07:31

Does anyone have access to the Arden note ? I'm going to try and get hold of the Note.

[multibagger] 04/11/2019 07:24

Thanks to and courtesy of ColourBounce on the LSE thread, Sun,10 Nov 2019@11:08


This may answer it...
Many of these contracts (in India) which we believe will be won (totalling more than £15m) have been going through the tender process since before the end of last year. Being government contracts the tender process, through to award can be a lengthy process often taking more than a year. We generally forecast taking historical data into account in terms of timing. This year that process has taken longer as a result of the Indian elections. Tenders could not be awarded from the start of a ‘code of conduct’ which started about 4-6 weeks before the election and continued until after the elections. Since the election the government has been working on various policies relating to the smart meter rollouts and this has further delayed the awarding of tenders.

We have felt confident (and still are) about winning these contracts as the specs of the tenders were very much suited to our technology and in most cases we have partnered with more than one of the prime bidders for the tenders we’ve had in our pipeline. The tenders have been moving through the processes and some are very close to award. In some cases they have been awarded to partners of ours, and we are negotiating contracts with them. All of this has taken longer than we expected. We originally expected the contracts to be awarded earlier in the year, but things have taken longer. Other opportunities have also come up during the year which we are working on, which is why we have been confident we would meet market expectation. We haven’t lost any of the contracts, they have simply slipped and we still expect them to be won. The reason we now feel we won’t meet market expectation is that we would need to be ordering in large volumes of components to manufacture goods, and don’t feel it is the right thing to do until orders are in our hands. The reason we always said we’d update the market at the end of October is because we have long lead times on some of the components.

In addition to the above, there is a large contract that we won last year that has also suffered some delays also as a result of the election. We originally anticipated more revenue to come through than is now likely to come through.

We still feel positive about winning the orders, and are confident in the outlook.

[multibagger] 04/11/2019 07:22

Thanks to and courtesy of ColourBounce on the LSE thread, Sat,09 Nov 2019@15:09

This from a recent Arden analyst note -
The group’s commercial trajectory in India continues to see delays. Management originally expected four contracts in India would drive a H2’19 rebound. Of these, three have already been awarded to CyanConnode’s clients (e.g. meter manufacturers) but contract negotiations are ongoing. One is yet to be awarded but management remains optimistic of an eventual favourable outcome. An additional existing contract has also seen a slower than expected ramp-up of deliveries this year, reducing the group’s expected revenues.

These 4 contracts are valued circa £15 million, and they are expected to land. Current M/Cap just over £4 million.

I was given detailed answers to my questions and can do nothing more than assume the information is correct.

[davep4] 04/11/2019 00:42

In other words the current SMETS2 communication modules will only operate on G2 or G3 and they would need to be replaced to operate on G4. Whilst network coverage is being improved for G4, I do not believe G2 and G3 will be as they are more or less legacy networks.

[davep4] 04/11/2019 00:12

Multibagger

It means the hardware has to be replaced rather than a simpler firmware upgrade.

[deltalo] 02/11/2019 23:37

Well this is how I think about this share, Have a good w/end all. https://youtu.be/ru00LPqgqL8

[multibagger] 02/11/2019 15:51

Hi davep4,

Thanks for your kind input. For lay people such as I, how would the change in chipset give CC a very strong franchise ?

[davep4] 01/11/2019 23:23

Knowing

Thank you for that information and in my opinion, if true, it must give CC a very strong franchise regarding SMETS2.

[multibagger] 01/11/2019 19:12

Hi tighfist,

Been a busy day - sorry for the delay in getting back.

"...It did make me wonder again about potential deliberate share price suppression and a go-private option..."

I am not persuaded that yesterday's action was a deliberate attempt to suppress the share price .. but the quality of the RNS copy leads to me believe that it must have been a YJ apprentice, who just remembered that a RNS had to be submitted before 0700 and started writing the RNS on the Tube, one stop before he/she had to get off. More c*ck up, than conspiracy imho.

WD J-P who owns just under 10% of the company must be surely smarting about his £255k paper loss yesterday as well. So not sure he'll be best pleased with whatever has gone off or with whoever is responsible. Maybe the BoD can't buy either to take advantage of the dismal SP, as they could well be into a closed period (how convenient)...so that again could defeat trying to go private ?

I don't how the two get along, but there must be some reason that WD J-P has become a NED and it may well have been a pre-condition to participate in the fund raise last year. WDJ-P becoming a NED is not a coincidence in my view and one could speculate that the two maybe wary of each other, but again what do I know ?

[multibagger] 01/11/2019 18:57

SP surprisingly held up despite block sales of 12 x 500k = 6 million

Take the 6m+ along with what was sold yesterday....it looks like Herald Investment are exiting/exited.

From Company website:

Canaccord Genuity Group inc: 13,746,477|7.54%
Herald Investment Management Limited: 12,401,579| 6.80%

Unlikely to be Canaccord Genuity as they came onboard at the fundraising in Sep/Oct 2018 at 10p. All IMHO - I could of course be wrong.

[deltalo] 01/11/2019 16:24

So the 500k seller is now a buyer lol, Watch this move next week, I'm supprised there's not a Directors dealing TR-1.We're in unknown territory now so I'm buying from unperforming other stocks.Have a good weekend all.

[knowing] 01/11/2019 15:30

4G will be a chipset change

[davep4] 01/11/2019 15:20

I believe that Toshiba's contract for the comms modules is G2/3 only, however, I am sure they could be upgraded to G4, but that would need new contracts and G4 licenses, etc.

[knowing] 01/11/2019 15:18

I wonder if this could become a target for one of the bigger players at the current valuation.

[deltalo] 01/11/2019 15:03

Blue finish I reckon, as it looks like the 500k seller is drying up. It's been bought up anyway so next week will be interesting. I couldn't resist buying more today at 2.45p, The award of these contracts should be secured in the coming weeks as stated in the rns ,so let's see if there right and they are signed, as we've been waiting for for so long here.

[stedon] 01/11/2019 11:33

That reply "enter Sherlock" tickled me Realist:0))

[realist1950] 01/11/2019 11:27

Enter, Sherlock Holmes.