Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[multibagger] 16/10/2018 14:45

Courtesy of and thanks to Vascular on the other thread.....

....the mind boggles with the kind of numbers that we could be involved in potentially...

[sabre6] 16/10/2018 11:28

I wonder if Simon Smith sold any of his shares on his departure from Cyan?
If not then that alone should tell us something.

[multibagger] 15/10/2018 11:23

Posted on another thread in response to a query... relevant here too !

A bit of context regarding our role and business model. We are not involved in the installation of the smart meters. We only sell and supply NIC cards to the smart meter manufacturers - we do not have any direct dealing with the utilities or the end customer.

That is done by our smart meter partners working with the utility. I believe that 300-400 smart meters can be installed a day, average of 15-20 min to do so at the customer's premises and even this could be done faster, if not for the delays which are usually around the tamper proofing of the meters and various "seals" being placed by the Utility. It is possible to ramp up to 1000 meters installation per day. We have scaled up NIC production to 6000/day at Chennai and 3000 per shift at Bawal and production is scheduled to ramp up from 18k units/month to 100k unit/month from 2019.

Installation of NIC cards into smart meters currently takes about 15 seconds per meter through automation. This is being worked on to reduce to about 5 seconds per meter....so clearly intent there in terms of delivering on scale.

Our role is to provide the Network Integration Card (NIC card) and ensure that it is optimally positioned inside the smart meters manufactured by L&T, Genus and HPL. We then charge the Non Recurrent Engineering (NRE) fee to connect these up to the Head End Software (HES) for the Utility. The HES links up with the Meter Data Management (MDM) software typically Oracle, Siemens or SAP used by the utility to manage CRM, billing, outage information, consumption patterns etc. We then provide on going Support and Maintenance which is about $2 per meter per year currently.

I have been doing my research :)

[multibagger] 14/10/2018 13:47

With a strong foothold in Indore, and this tender specification appearing to tick all the boxes for CYAN....I think we have a very high probability of being the successful bidder !


Cleanest Indian City Issues Tender for 30,000 Smart Meters to Clean its Power Grid




October 9, 2018


Estimated cost of the project is Rs 157.9 million, and the deadline for the completion of the project has been set two years.

Indore Smart City has issued a tender for installation of 30,000 smart energy meters in the city, with a bid-submission deadline set for October 31st, 2018.

Indore Smart City Development Limited, the SPV formed to implement similar projects in the city under the centre’s Smart Cities Mission will curate the project. With an estimated cost of Rs 157.9 million, the deadline for the completion of the project has been set two years in the areas identified for the area-based development (ABD).

The scope of work includes the supply, installation, testing, and commissioning of about 30,000 smart meters with RF mesh communication. The successful bidder will be responsible for integrating the smart meters with existing communication infrastructure, existing head end system (HES), meter data management (MDM) system, cloud hosting for applications, billing system and revenue/service advisory services of Madhya Pradesh Pashchim Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Co. Ltd.

The successful bidder will also be responsible for onsite warranty support and field maintenance of smart meters with network interface card (NIC) for five years from the date of Installation and five and a half years from date of supply, whichever is earlier.

Smart metering in the selected areas will work to enhance the overall efficiency of the system, providing a wireless two-way communication between the distribution company and the consumer meter. The consumption and the tariff at any point of time can be accessed by the consumer. Installing smart energy meters in the 100 smart cities selected by the Government of India is a crucial part of the plan to improve power efficiency and customisation of power usage.

Energy Efficiency Services Limited (EESL), a joint venture of PSUs under the Ministry of Power, is responsible for implementing Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). A smart meter reduces meter-reading, data-entry errors and costs by removing the need for manual meter reading. Therefore, enabling utilities to reduce their Aggregate Transmission and Commercial (AT&C) losses and billing inefficiencies.

Indore won the ‘Special Mention’ award at the recently concluded Smart City Expo India held in Jaipur, and keeping up with the trend also bagged the award for cleanest Indian city for a second time at the Swacch Survekshan 2018, under the Swacch Bharat Mission. Showing no signs of resting on its laurels, the city has acted promptly on the smart metering initiative being pushed by the centre to help clean up the grid. BSES, Delhi’s power discom also came forward with a similar program but expects the project to be completed over multiple years leading into the next decade.

Recently, EESL signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the state discoms of Haryana to install 1 million smart meters across the state. North Delhi’s power discom, Tata Power Delhi Distribution Limited (TPDDL), at the same time announced its plans to install smart meters for all its 16 lakh consumers in the capital.

[multibagger] 12/10/2018 09:24

Re source of funding....

As we all LTHs know nothing has changed for the fundamentals or prospects of the company...it's just that we are in the midst of a stock market
thunderstorm after weeks and months of very fair trading weather. Was to be expected, but you can't predict when it would happen.

As I have been buying CYAN, I know that it has been very difficult to get stock in any decent quantity involving a lot of conversations with brokers, even though I place orders online. I paid often a penny over ask to get stock. My inference from this (I could be wrong of course), is that the Instis have not been forward selling. They would do that if they knew that they were getting a load of cheaply placed fresh stock at say 12-13p in any imminent placing.

So my bold guess is that any funding arrangement is likely to be minimally dilutional. The funding is likely to be made up of different funding streams to raise the needed cash and my guess is circa £5m at the upper end. I wonder if India could be source of funds given that we are expecting a lot from there ?

All idle speculation on my part, whilst waiting for the stock market weather to improve :)

Good luck all !

[fred splange] 11/10/2018 07:54

MultiYou've put some serious wodge in here, and I wish you luck. From where I'm sitting though, it appears to be reverting to form.

[multibagger] 11/10/2018 06:42

Posted on the other thread...but relevant here too !

Of course the market is made up of people with varying perceptions/viewpoints, risk thresholds, investing timeframes, levels of investing experience and resources...and they act accordingly. Nothing wrong with that. The information about the company is widely available in the public domain
, it is how you choose to interpret it, synthesise it and act on the same which will determine your financial outcome.

To me the case to invest in CYAN in a meaningful way is hugely compelling at this stage and I am a patient investor (or can be when I need to be).

There are at least 5 major revenue streams as I see it
India
SMETS2 UK
Rest of the World incl Scandinavia
White Label
Support and Maintenance Contracts

Some of these are already delivering revenue and are likely to expand exponentially. We are moving from a hardware to a recurrent software model with a very sticky product - which could be the potential solution to the last mile problem in the future world of IoT. We could be similar to an "intel inside" or "ARM model" in the not too distant future with large upfront payment and recurrent royalties. Our hardware margins at 44% and software margins at 95% allow for volume discounts without being cut to the bone. We currently make about $25-30 per smart meter through the first 5 year cycle and about $2 per year from there on from Support and Maintenance function. Scaling up is not going to involve a huge amount of capex - the implementation risk is with our meter manufacturers. In India we are partnered with 3 of the large Tier 1 manufacturers and therefore benefit from the probability of benefiting irrespective of who wins the bid and India alone is a 220-250 million smart meter market. Anil Daulani's CV indicates that he has closed deals upwards of $200-250m in his career so far - that is an excellent track record. Our cost base is likely to be pretty stable, as bulk of the R&D has been completed for this phase of our products. Our Directors have decent skin in the game and have a track record of successful company exits. We have some large backers with deep pockets who can potentially be a funding backstop.

So I have made some bold investing decisions and pretty confident of a very successful outcome in the next 3-5 years or so.

[rajstar] 09/10/2018 11:40

Double bottom breakdown triggered on point and figure chart at 14.276 level. If buyers kicks in now then this signal will be cancelled, however MACD is at its peak high and started ready to crossover to the downside.

[multibagger] 08/10/2018 09:14

From the previous two posts..@$30 per meter

These are indicative figures...

UGVCL for 23,000 meters = 690,000
Madhya Pradesh (Indore) for 50,000 meters =1,500,000

So it looks like we may be on £7-8m target revenue wise for FY 2018, if we land a white label deal and some SMETS2 contract revenue ?

[multibagger] 08/10/2018 07:42

Based on feedback from the Investor Presentation...I gather that the installations in the city of Indore (Madhya Pradesh order of $3.2m announced on 21 May 2018) is also on schedule to achieve 50,000 smart meter installations by end Dec 2018. So I would expect (if it is indeed true) that the revenue to the tune of 50k smart meters x $30 per SM = $1.5m will recognised by end of the financial year.

CYAN smart meter partners are installing between 300-400 smart meters per day in Indore apparently.

So we appear to be gaining traction and revenue :)

Good luck all !

[multibagger] 08/10/2018 07:32

Courtesy of and thanks to LTI on the other board....

India Smart Grid Bulletin indicates that the Gujarat UGVCL smart meter project for Genus Power, should be coming near completion, by 30th September, 2018. While the billing of 1st phase for 8,000 consumers, is already complete.

The total project has an order value of $1.1 million ( Approximately GBP 840,000 ) and was based on 23,000+ units. This is different to the unit value recorded in the ISGF Bulletin, which shows a figure of 39,442. I asked CyanConnode to verify which figure was correct and had a reply that the 23,000+ figure, as RNS'd on 6th July, 2017, is the correct figure.

So should the September 30th, 2018 date be achieved for completion, that could/should make a proportion of the order value, available to be entered into the CyanConnode bank account, hopefully by year end, 2018. ( Dependent on payment terms.) Minus any retention for snagging, etc., ( Allow approximately 5%.)

The 18 month contract period, mentioned in the July 6th, 2017 RNS, runs through to the beginning of January 2019.

So it would seem that the project may be ahead of schedule.

Good luck,

LTI.

[bamboo2] 07/10/2018 11:17

Hi janeann/mb, sorry missed your posts, as had not yet 'favourited' the thread. Here on the basis of the chart.

janeann, Have been forced to concentrate elsewhere, to some cost to my pf! Just trying to get back into some share dealing now.

[emptyend] 07/10/2018 09:22

I see in the weekend press that some SMETS2 meters from a gas company are being replaced due to comms not working as expected in some situations. Sounds as if Mesh should be the remedy?

[lwaxf13] 05/10/2018 18:04

Orders keep coming?!! Steady on please. This company has more orders than you could shake a stick at and top notch people successfully turning those mega million $$$ orders into real cash. Ok I am joking about that last bit :-)

DYOR etc

[cielos] 05/10/2018 11:27

I used to like the company a few years ago but many things has happen since, a new live looks like in the way if orders keep coming in.

[multibagger] 05/10/2018 08:56

Welcome aboard Bamboo2...just lurking or invested ? Would be interesting if the charts hold true...I fully expect 24.55p to be taken out in the next few months :)

Good luck all !

[janeann] 04/10/2018 15:24

nice to see you here bamboo. You have been quiet of late; hope all well. O/T but any thoughts on zoo welcomed .

[bamboo2] 04/10/2018 14:43

The chart is showing another potential High and Tight Flag pattern.

This will be confirmed with an eod close above 17.80

IF confirmed, min tp is 20.05, could run to 24.55

The chart shows a potential turn today, which could be this mornings intraday low. gla

[detective1] 04/10/2018 13:45

Back up she goes.

[rajstar] 04/10/2018 11:14

Not yet. Let's see if 12p holds

[detective1] 04/10/2018 10:45

fill your boots at that price

[rajstar] 04/10/2018 10:22

Indian stock market tanked 850 points today, a sell off witnessed across all sectors and weak global cues. So considering CYAN are spreading in India this will affect short term strategies which is in place.

[rajstar] 04/10/2018 10:17

12p support which should hold or a mini one at 10p.

[multibagger] 03/10/2018 22:29

Hi Janeann,

Hope you had a good day..I have been busy and hopefully it will be fruitful and productive ! ARC as we know moves on small volumes, but I do get the impression/knowledge that a large investor is building a decent stake.

Could be some tree shaking to fill a large and ongoing order(s)in the usual news vacuum. Traders/investors are often restless chasing the next "hot stock" and could be getting tempted.

I wear my ARC cap( freebie at the recent AGM) with pride :)

[janeann] 03/10/2018 18:05

well multi - that's some confidence. I do hope they get the funding sorted. Hope its not you moving out of arc and into these; certainly some weakness there at present.