Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[dennisbergkamp] 04/5/2021 19:56

Been watching for ages... Looks super interesting. Might just drop in for a trade!

D

[beeezzz] 04/5/2021 18:15

Small spread - decent volume today, only one positive for me..today.

[x54v] 04/5/2021 10:04

"Our DCF-implied equity fair value is £71.8m (equating to £0.38 per share), versus the current market capitalisation of £11.8m."

[inthetin] 26/4/2021 15:54

Hi carcosa and MB

Thanks very much for your replies.

Cheers

ITT

[multibagger] 26/4/2021 15:34

Many thanks carcosa for your helpful and informative post :)

[carcosa] 26/4/2021 12:39

Delayed trades: See Rules 3030 - 3033 in this document:



For everyday interpretation it is up to the market maker to delay a reportable trade if the buy/sell is a multiple of the EMS (Exchange Market Size) which for CYAN is currently 15,000 shares. The EMS is the minimum number of shares that a market maker is obliged to quote a firm two way price on the trading system.

[multibagger] 26/4/2021 12:21

Hi ITT,

Delayed announcements appear to be pretty much the norm for biggish trades - some are reported after an hour and some really big trades are announced a day/few days later. This has been the way for many, many years. To short term traders this may be of trading importance and materiality, but to long term holders, these are more of academic interest in my view. I have not really looked into it.

I think it is the MMs who decide when they "report" the trade and I imagine that they may be allowed some latitude to ensure an "orderly market"...which in itself could be open to interpretation....make of it what you will.

[inthetin] 26/4/2021 08:42

Hi MB

Do you know how you (as seller or buyer) delay the reporting of trades? Is it an option open to all of us?

[multibagger] 26/4/2021 07:56

Good morning all :)

Just noticed a few late trade announcements from Thu,22 April, which probably (partially) explains the sharp drop in the share price that day

2 sells - 998k and 1.226m shares sold - worth in total about £141k
1 buy - 597k shares - worth about £40k

No holdings RNS so far...

[gleach23] 22/4/2021 19:56

I took what I hope was an opportunity to make a top up today when dummy trades indicated a strengthening of share price late afternoon. GLA

[emptyend] 22/4/2021 19:41

Well according to the medics in India (on Sky News tonight) they expect cases to peak in the next week or two and then hospitalisations a couple of weeks after that.........so on that basis getting new contracts might be delayed for a month or two, but it shouldn't affect either deliveries or payments (which are either covered by advance payments or LoCs according to this month's update).Whatever the case, the price fall seems overdone (and on fairly modest volume).

[tightfist] 22/4/2021 16:52

Yes, in the medium term; but what is wholesale Indian strain of COVID going to getting contracts signed and the pace of installation roll-out........

[gleach23] 22/4/2021 14:55

Presumably this hit today is due to the current the Covid situation in India

[multibagger] 21/4/2021 17:49

A further update on current job openings at CYAN....

hxxps://cyanconnode.com/about/careers/

The 2 x Java Developer posts have possibly been filled as not being advertised anymore...

However, 2 x Operations Engineers have been now advertised....in addition to the 3 previous posts still recruiting.....

Interesting times :)

[multibagger] 13/4/2021 19:16

Courtesy of and thanks to LTI, posted earlier this evening on the other thread...

"............... advertising for Jave Developers (2), a Project Manager and a Supply Chain Executive, as well as an Executive Assistant to CEO and MD India.

hxxp://cyanconnode.com/about/careers/

Could be some interesting times ahead.

LTI..."


Well spotted eagle eyed LTI !

Clearly more grist to the mill, as I cannot recall CYAN advertising so many jobs at the same time/any given time in India. They won't be ramping up on staffing, if there is no work for them !

Coming events cast their shadow before :)

[multibagger] 13/4/2021 19:08

Hi tightfist,

The Pay As You Save figure for an Opex model ($1.5-2 per month, per smart meter over 5-10 years) was suggested as an indicative figure and came from someone who is familiar with private/public finance initiatives and infrastructure funding.

The bottom line being to finance an Opex model, someone has to be able to put up the vast capital required to fund the infrastructure project in the first place (potentially hundreds of millions of pounds) and in exchange for a high, guaranteed return over the life of the project.

The sources of funds are very likely to be from /Pension Funds/Institutional/Green Funds/Sovereign Funds/Govt initiatives. They will legally and contractually ensure an excellent RoI given the long term time frame and political risks inherent in working in developing countries.

The UK examples being PFI builds of new hospitals and educational academies, M6 toll road etc by the likes of Skanska et al ......which are very cash generative for them (but a drain on the national tax payer)

Though you may feel it is an optimistic figure, I am comfortable that it is
not an outlier and potentially a realistic figure and I suppose time will tell, if the Opex model takes off.

[emptyend] 13/4/2021 18:36

So....when we last heard from S. Chari, the holding was 6.44% - over 12mn shares. That was at the start of February and the shares were bought at 7p or so. I wonder what that holding is now?And I wonder which S. Chari it is? One or two might conceivably be quite well-informed....

[beeezzz] 13/4/2021 18:13

This statement in RNS caught my eye... 'RSI touched 80 so may see pull back'

"Offering a range of business models gives a flexible approach to our partnership with EESL and we look forward to collaborating with them to develop and deliver large-scale projects in the Middle East and African markets."

[tightfist] 13/4/2021 15:35

Hi MB;.These JV "vehicles" are now termed SPV's (Special Purpose Vehicles) and were well-described by JC and HP in a brr media video which I believe was on 4th September 2020 - this video now seems to have been swept......This World Bank paper addresses the potential role of the private sector in SM, especially on page 34:https://ppiaf.org/documents/5890/download.The rubber-hit-the-road 3 days later on 7th September when the MPWZ contract was announced, the first to be delivered by an SPV in conjunction with Cyan. Incidentally, I suspect your per meter OpEx revenue stream guesstimate is considerably optimistic?."IPCL, a Kanoria Foundation Company, is committed to increasing its footprint in OpEx based smart-metering projects and this partnership will complement each other for more wins." they said..So we know that MPSG/IPCL and Intellismart are both active in funding SPV formations, how many other Bees are circling the Indian honeypot? Last Autumn I recall JC briefly initimating that in due course Cyan may become involved within the SPV - I don't foresee how Cyan could afford the cash up-front (IMO JC seems to be rather prone to flights of fancy? - what some would call Vision?!).Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 13/4/2021 10:09

Hi tightfist,

Many thanks for sharing your research and insights which are very astute. I think that many of us here are sensing a turning of the tide and better times to come...Intellismart could be the next big JV announcement if you are correct (high probability in my view too, now).

If we are able to strike a JV (or whatever the vehicle/governance structure is called) with Intellismart or any other big player in India, CYAN could be looking at potential Opex contracts for several million smart meters in one fell swoop for starters. That could be for an Opex/Pay As You Save model over 5-10 years and probably worth between $1.5 - 2 dollars (my guess) per month, per smart meter. These numbers will soon add up...

The dots are already there.....and my friend has bought about 100k shares in CYAN today in her ISA today.

Good luck all !

[tightfist] 13/4/2021 09:59

Hi MB, I appreciate your enthusiasm - maybe take a look back to post #1507 where I explored the role of Intellismart, being a JV of EESL and NNIF (who in turn have access to considerable capital) - formation announcement from October 2019:https://mercomindia.com/eesl-niif-smart-meter-program-india/This gives some more insight from November 2020 and the re-tender developments after the Hexing deal was cancelled. The role of EESL relative to Intellismart seems to be evolving?https://www.livemint.com/news/india/schneider-electric-genus-power-7-others-in-fray-for-india-s-smart-meter-order-11606642613736.htmlHere is an insightful February 2021 interview with the CEO of Intellismart, particularly advocating the OpEx SM deployment model:https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/discoms-must-use-cost-effective-model-to-set-up-smart-meters/2202841/As I mentioned before, Intellismart is not the only potential SPV facilitator within India.Intellismart are now busily releasing SM, AMI, etc tenders, this info was last updated on 2nd April:https://intellismartinfra.in/tenders/One senses a way to go to reach timely SM decision-making and announcements in the world's largest democracy?!

[multibagger] 13/4/2021 09:45

Hi ITT,

You could be right given the stake that Mr/Ms/Mrs S Chari has built in a short period of time. I agree that there are likely to be a number of holders with low single digit % holdings so free float is low and likely to diminish further. Couple that with some significant commercial news could rocket the share price into the late teens comfortably I reckon.

CYAN is massively undervalued IMHO given the significant increase in revenues, growing partnerships, track record in India and Thailand, size of addressable smart meter market globally and a decent cash position.

By way of comparison/illustration, ITM Power has a share price of about 470p underpinned by a £4.4m annual revenue (made up of £4.2m by way of grants), massively loss making and a market cap of a few Billion !

[inthetin] 13/4/2021 09:34

Hi MB

The way I'm reading it is that S Chari was the one who shoved this up to 9p'ish with her/his buying previously.

This time around the rise is based on news (some revenue and new partnership info) to back it up, which I believe will make this latest rise more sustainable.

Chuck in news of a decent new contract within a few weeks and who knows where we'll be heading then.

I'm not sure that there are many shares out there to be traded. As well as the major shareholders, there will be plenty of smaller investors holding 1% or so.

[multibagger] 13/4/2021 08:55

Hi ITT,

Some steady buying so far this morning and if this continues then maybe another + 0.5 to 0.6p day ?

So may touch 10p possibly, but would expect some tired holders to call it a day around that point and bank some money. From observation, often round figures end up as transition points in share price (eg.from single to double digits and onto triple digits etc).

Good luck all :)