Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 02/2/2021 14:29

Hi MB; IMHO it looked OK-ish. But now we have Q4 shipment guidance (likely -ve on cash) combined with perceptions of a far shorter Cashflow cycle (+ve). So my IMO jury is out for a few days! Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 02/2/2021 13:10

Well done tightfist :)

I cheekily "read" that you are pleased/reassured with your spreadsheet workings ? ;)

+0.5p now ! :)

[tightfist] 02/2/2021 12:33

25k was mine...

[gleach23] 02/2/2021 12:14

With market quote @ 7.3-7.5 there doesn't appear to be any stock available to buy and with that trade just going through for 31k @ 7.6 it looks like we might be back over 8p shortly with any luck.

[tightfist] 02/2/2021 11:29

Agreed MB. I must take a look at the latest Budget..Your interpretation is consistent with Opex being the way the Indian industry is going - Cyan talked at length about the emergence of SPV's in late Summer (the first SPV deal was later announced on 7th September and was "....placed by M.P. Smart Grid Private Limited, which is the Project Special Purpose Vehicle ("SPV") formed by India Power Corporation Ltd ("IPCL")"; in this instance the client is the Indian state-owned utility "Madhya Pradesh Paschim Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd" ("MPWZ"), for 350,000 Cyan Omnimesh Modules..Googling MPSGPL indicates it was incorporated as a private company on 31/05/2020 with one director already being with IPCL and was later made a director of IPCL last July..In turn it seems MPSGPL is financed by SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE LIMITED. "Srei is one of India's leading asset finance and leasing institutions, constantly and consistently delivering innovative solutions in the infrastructure sector". SREI is quoted on BSE..Presumably this mechanism is how the Cyan upfront cash receipts and LoC's are being financed..I get the impression that that the state-owned Discoms are skint and the private sector has grasped the opportunity to get involved by injecting capital (and drive?) and accelerating the Indian massive SM transition with what has been demonstrated to be a high-return initiative. It was the "drive" aspect that drew my attention to shipping modules within three months of contract announcement. .This is all NIAI and DYOR based. Any input or correction by anyone most appreciated. I suspect the situation with very high non-technical losses and lack of investment capital is fairly specific to India and we should be thoughtful about applying to other territoriesCheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 02/2/2021 10:36

Thanks tightfist. The move (indications from the Indian Budget as I read it) appears to be towards an OPEX (Pay As You Save model) in the early stages of being rolled out to Distribution Companies (Discoms) in India. I suppose it would work elsewhere / internationally.

With the climate change agenda in full play and Institutional Funds looking for "Green Investments", I think that there may be an appetite to fund such OPEX initiatives, as these Funds will have a clearly visible and recurrent revenue stream over 7-10 yrs or so.

So this coming shift as I see it, from a CAPEX model to a OPEX model will be allow roll out and adoption of smart metering at a much faster pace. As always, we'll have to wait and see what eventually transpires !

There is a tiny 0.10p+ tick up with just 2 trades under £20 revealed so far...sounds like a / some bigger orders being filled ?

Let's hope we catch the attention of a tsunami of an Etoro brigade, which will work wonders as a catalyst for our share price ;)

Very comfortable with where we are now to be honest...it's just a waiting game for more good news !

[tightfist] 02/2/2021 10:14

Hi MB, thanks for that 45-60 days recall - let's see what other info there is out there on this BB then I will refine my model. .Payables to the CEM?/fabricators? is a critical aspect, ESPECIALLY if Cyan are to grow the Indian revenues exponentially... AND even more so during 2021..Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 02/2/2021 08:59

Not sure I understood your question tightfist...but I seem to recall that we have to pay the CEM in about 45-60 days.

So to my untrained eye, it appears that we have some decent time buffer before getting the money from the LoCs and then having to pay the CEM. In other words, we appear to be able to keep manage our cash, inventory, supply and payments in a smooth cycle at this time.

Would appreciate your views or that of others who understand this better ?

[tightfist] 02/2/2021 08:28

Hi MB,.I am OK with that - but how do Payables work with a contract manufacturer, with modest added-value? and in a high-interest economy.......Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 02/2/2021 08:07

Many thanks tightfist - what if you work on the assumption that an LoC payment comes in about 30 days ?

[tightfist] 02/2/2021 07:42

Hi MB, I have noted your "big hint" on Working Capital levels. The key assumption and sensitivity in my analysis (no surprises!) is Payables versus Receivables timing on what now seems to be predominantly LoC business - also post #1423. Currently I have initially assumed 4 months which is very pessimistic and discouraging...... Does anyone have a better figure in mind - or buried in the recent Cyan info?.Meanwhile we MAY have our higher-low print on the chart? We need a sizeable order to be announced soon? Cheers, tightfist

[gleach23] 01/2/2021 20:32

Hi multibagger...it was timed at 8.55 on Friday so in the middle of the 10 minute mini auction that starts at 8.50 each morning. The Offer for trades prior to auction was 6.7 and after 6.8. I also noticed supply tighten right up at the time so I'd say it was definitely a buy.

[multibagger] 01/2/2021 19:31

Indian Budget 2021:

Further huge investment in pre-paid smart metering....

[multibagger] 01/2/2021 19:27

Hi gleach23,

Yeah that could possibly explain it - I think it is a buy, though reported as a sell. Also some biggish trades today...getting even more interesting :)

Still waiting for tightfist to find a few minutes to share his observations re working capital ;) (big hint!!)

[gleach23] 01/2/2021 19:10

Late trade reported today of 433k shares @ 6.8p from last Friday explains the share price strength over last 2 trading days.

[tightfist] 26/1/2021 08:38

O/T: I have noted a recent trend on a few stocks towards multiple single digit trades, especially in the last minutes of trading particularly with ALTN. Clearly (IMHO) the headline price is being manipulated..... this looks to being suppressed in this instance on a very illiquid share. I havnt noticed it yet in the "copy trading" context, will keep an eye open. .Will get respond later on Cyan and Working Capital..Cheers, tightfist

[tightfist] 26/1/2021 08:28

And to recall I sold out of IDEA at 94p - I made good money - but hardly my smartest move!

[multibagger] 26/1/2021 07:49

Off topic: Re IDEA (a big, long term hold for me from the early 30p share price range)

Interesting what can happen to share price growth when it gets going...

Below is an excerpt from the IDEA RNS this morning....IDEA share price is at 287p now !


Commenting on David's retirement Ben Dorks said:

"I have worked closely with David for the last 8 years. What he has achieved at Ideagen is quite outstanding. Under his leadership, first as chief executive officer from 2009 to 2018, and then as executive chairman, the Group has grown from a market value of £0.5m and a share price of 2p to its current position. Having made 20 acquisitions Ideagen is now a world leader in the provision of regulatory and compliance software with over 5000 customers, 600 employees with offices in EMEA, Europe and Asia.

His work ethic and dedication to the Company and its employees has been remarkable. He leaves an extraordinary legacy to follow and we wish him the very best for the future."

[multibagger] 26/1/2021 07:10

Interesting article in The Times yesterday about "copy trading"...trading led by Popular Investors (PIs in the jargon or "gurus") and facilitated by commission free share trading by the likes of the Etoro platform. A dangerous bubble by the sounds of it, but not too different from the "momentum traders" who descend on a stock in hordes on the back of their "guru's" tips.

I think the tellatale sign could be the size of trades - often in low single digit volumes and in quick succession, that would not make sense to more conventional investors due to share brokerage fees.

So if you see a flurry of tiny trades in CYAN or any other share happening, I think that this is what is happening. Though individually they are tiny, it is the numbers of "copy traders" that make it relevant. Apparently some of the more successful "gurus" have followers in the tens of thousands.

Gurus are apparently not allowed to "front run" these trades...so effectively there can be a mad scramble if one of these "gurus" tips CYAN, given the liquidity issues. Here's hoping !!

Fingers crossed ;)

[multibagger] 26/1/2021 07:02

Good morning tightfist (and all) :)

I guess it is understandable if you are more cautious and conservative in your reading of the "tea leaves" - guesstimate of the revenues given where we have been with Cyan. I am not a finance person, so my understanding and interpretation of these matters is not sophisticated.

We have been told that we are receiving Letters of Credit which guarantee our payments. LCs will be paid according to the T&Cs obviously, but wouldn't that largely take care of the working capital side of things, if we are working on 60 days payment periods ?

My interpretation of the JC comment you refer to, is that deliveries are forecast to increase from where we have been very recently - averaging circa 2000 modules per calendar day.

So more than 2000 modules per calendar day in my reading possibly from Jan to March 2021...which led me to the conclusion of around £5.3m or thereabouts.

Let's see what eventually happens !

[tightfist] 25/1/2021 22:09

Hi MB, thanks - I currently have a lower expectation for FY revenue - largely because I am really concerned (paranoid?) about possible available Working Capital constraints - and also the stated 30 month MPWZ contract roll-out (15/12/2020). Maybe I need to look again at WC aspects..On the other hand I note JC on 15/01/2021: "......we expect increased demand for deliveries during the remainder of this financial year...". Increased relative to what?.This maybe suggests £1.9M+ in the last 3 months and £5.3m+ for the FY? Probably the same logic as you! If that is realised then H2 PnL break-even could be on the cards........ DYOR!.Cold shower time! tightfist

[multibagger] 25/1/2021 14:23

Hi tightfist...I guess we are in a watching and waiting mode..or the calm before the storm in a positive sense. It feels a while since we have had some commercial RNSs...so may be something close.

At least we know that things are on a much stronger footing and we are heading in the right direction. My guess for revenues till end March 2021 are about £5.3 million. What do you think ?

PS: Liquidity remains tight with only about 25k can be bought at 7.2p - otherwise negotiated deal.

[tightfist] 25/1/2021 11:51

It's gone awfully quiet around here - just waiting for contract news?

[tightfist] 18/1/2021 15:02

Regarding Grapefruit's post: Don't get me wrong, IMO I like Cyan a lot but there is an important caveat from 15th December RNS ref MPWZ: ".....The smart meters, which are being supplied by existing partners, will be deployed over thirty months....."..But help may be at hand......Encouragingly it was only three months from MPWZ finally being announced to shipments commencing.... We will need to see more big orders being landed within the next few months with IMO progressive shipments to help ease our way through a potential Working Capital bottleneck? Or will we be able to take-on some modest affordable interim debt?

[nilli] 17/1/2021 14:15

Sounds very promising!