Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[johnwall] 31/1/2018 10:24

realist1950 - of course it's your right and prerogative to post whatever you like, within the law. Your initial complain, which initially led me to respond, was that no-one here would engage with you.

Having now engaged with you, it seems to me that all you seem to be saying, IMO in a rather long winded way, is that -

1. CYAN is a high risk investment
2. It's trying to make inroads into difficult markets
3. It's still not cash positive
4. It might have to raise more money
5. The management are well-remunerated

Speaking for myself, at least, I'm very well aware of all those points but thanks for your dispassionate and disinterested concern for CYAN shareholders who might be less insightful than yourself.

[davep4] 31/1/2018 10:19

Hopefully, (i) the delayed cash arrives very shortly, (ii) win 75% of tenders in the next 9 months, (iii) don’t need to raise cash until the end part of the year and (iv) sold next year to a trade buyer for 100m+. Not too much to ask.

[realist1950] 31/1/2018 09:53

Johnwall - there's another one.

Apparently I'm called Nick now.

Complete fiction.

Why don't they instead drill down into looking at the business?

Have a good day.

[realist1950] 31/1/2018 09:53

johnwall -

A very good example of the outspoken bull, shuttering out rational dialogue I mentioned above can be seen on the LSE this morning: poster 1967SWB911S.

That post is pure, pure, pure fiction and bears no relation at all to reality. I can tell you it's utterly delusional.

This is what I refer to as morbid fascination.

Apparently the share price is on it's backside because of me and I'm working for some firm. It's complete fantasy.

The blinkers are so tightly in place has he/she not paused to look at the realities of the business, what its costs are, what it's bringing in.....not to mention a major fund selling out?

If a company is healthy and it's prospects good the share price will follow.

Cyan has dropped for a long time and this is because it has issued shares, spent a lot and failed to earn much.

This is the harsh reality but instead of that, the best that person can do is invent a conspiracy.

Regards.

[dwall] 31/1/2018 09:47

Realist 1950

Or perhaps I should say Nick!

How’s life in the valleys this morning?

When you gonna start closing your short we’re all wondering?

[realist1950] 31/1/2018 09:33

johnwall - - because it's my right and prerogative.

I love the markets. I love analysis and I love the challenge of predicting future events for any given company....whether they are ultimately good or bad.

I have been in the markets since pre-internet days and I have followed CYAN like a hawk since it floated.

I have seen it drift and morph in its intentions from one thing into another and under multiple management personel.

In fact, I know the company and understand the realities of it better than many a 'shut down', outspoken holder. I have also watched waves (almost generations now) of holders arrive here with fresh hopes, turned on by the words of rhetoric-rich CEO, only to see them turn bitter and dismissive of any bear perspective....and eventually, for the realists among them at least, to see bull turn bear.

It's this (sometimes) morbid fascination of observing the market - and in particular those who play with it, and sustain it, and sustain individual companies that retains my interest in certain businesses, regardless if I'm ever going to buy into them or not. You could say there is an element of theatre in watching it unfold and, it's interesting to see if ones thoughts were proven right or wrong; very useful in the continued learning process.

Of course, In the meantime I trade elsewhere and make a good living.

Like or dislike what Cancun Tango says, he/she has been absolutely right. And they have been observing CYAN for many, many years. I have seen him/her 'shut down', shouted off threads. But ultimately they have been right.

And no, we're not the same person.

It's interesting that bears are often accused of deramping even though, more often than not, they offer reasoned and rational points to support their view. Because they do not hold, they write saying what they think will happen, not what they necessarily hope will happen.

I maintain that it's easier to keep a clearer view of a company when one is not financially committed and for this reason, internet investment bb's should learn to tolerate such posters.

I haven't seen a reasoned and compelling bull post for cyan, with any decent analysis, for some considerable time.

Anyway.

Regards.

[lwaxf13] 31/1/2018 08:53

I see our very own hapless PM is on a jolly to China. I can think of no one better qualified to lead any representation or negotiations on behalf of the UK than our dithering, appeasing PM. Hope she mentions CYAN to the Chinese. The next INTEL :-)

[greenelf] 31/1/2018 08:42

I just had a smart meter installed for free last week. It is great, replaces the 1970's old meters I had. No more manual reading submissions for me.I think CYAN has been oversold to this point. Seller now gone, delays news digested. Yes, the company has issues and a LOT to prove. BUT they do have contracts and a healthy order book and cash currently. I think this will go up in due course, but may have one more retest of bottom? Any good news (eg new contract) from here on will boost the downtrodden share price

[cancun tango] 31/1/2018 08:05

Excellent summary realist.Based on previous, I'd expect the delayed customer order to be quietly forgotten. I take the lack of any reassuring noises on iran revenue to mean the same there.in the UK, the Times link I posted earlier in the week shows how unpopular smart meters are here.  In my experience, these articles are used by govt to foreshadow their intentions.  The anticipated savings aren't there for the consumer, I expect the rollout will be curtailed. All told, its no wonder we're at 0.7p old money. My estimate on burn was slightly more than £1m/m, so placing end of April, wonder at what price? For some reason,  masochism maybe, long termers here are a viciously loyal bunch.  By pointing out the weakness of cyan as an investment, you'll get the anger directed at you that should rightly be aimed at the BOD who have repeatedly and continually let them down over the years.  Good luck with it though, you might save a few people some dosh

[johnwall] 31/1/2018 07:47

realist1950 - so you don't have any personal relationship with JC or the company, or any financial interest, but your "frustration is more with the CYAN bod and what I deem as under delivery."

If you don't have any interest, either personal or financial, why on earth do you care whether the BOD are the equivalent of Bill Gates/Mark Zuckerberg/Steve Jobs or just a bunch of chimps? What does it matter to you if they 'underdeliver'? Why do you take considerable amounts of time making long posts on CYAN bulletin boards?

You posts sound to me like those of someone with a definite, albeit undisclosed, agenda. I think you need to be honest about your motives if you want people to engage with you. Of course, if you just want to post a continuing negative commentary to try and have an effect on sentiment then by all means carry on. We're all free to ignore you.

[realist1950] 30/1/2018 23:10

owenski:

It seems rather strange to me that a tech company (apparently with world leading tech and apparently world class BOD) does not see fit to include details about the CTO on their website, nor does he or she get a mention in the renumeration pages of the Annual Report.

So is all the R&D that CYAN have shovelled millions of pounds at over the past years outsourced? How much is done in house? Genuine question.



In the meantime Cyan shareholders await news of the delayed contract from 2017. Even if it comes and CYAN get a cash injection of sorts, I personally do not believe it will be enough to ward off another dilutive placing.

The order book (of orders received, but not yet delivered.....sounds almost like a letter of intent) is phased over many many years. Execution of these orders needs to happen now, en masse, and rapidly, if the company is to not place again - imo.

The 'easy' money for CYAN is the recurring revenue streams from software licensing - the so-called ARM model, but this revenue is weighted to the second half of each contract, once the hardware has gone in. So far, not that much hardware has gone in and the licenses will generate money, but only incrementally and only ever over a long period. There's nothing wrong with that, so long as you're frequently winning a shed load of work and have funds in the meantime to support the rollout.

Therefore, on info available and on current order status and time-scales, it seems clear to me CYAN will be fundraising again. That's just my view. Others may see it differently.

The share price will find support and lift every now and then as the company releases news, but ultimately I see this as being in a sustained downtrend. I also think if you look at the company as a business, and go only on hard facts and figures, it presently looks overvalued.

Whilst I acknowledge there may be the potential for upside and respite there is also potential for slippage:

The flagship UK project for smart metering roll-out which the BOD have boasted is worth c.£25M to the company is apparently now coming under scrutiny from the UK government. As a nationwide project I think it's generally understood and agreed to be behind schedule.

I think if this project is officially reviewed there could be, to some degree or other, a knock-on effect to CYAN's valuation. It kind of depends to what extent the current share price is underpinned by UK ops. I concede don't have an exact answer for that and would not like to guess.

And as the foreign contracts CYAN court are mainly in difficult, emerging markets, eg India - where the parameters for smart metering are still being defined and horse-traded, there is the potential for slippage, delays and changes of direction. Remember that recent contract awards have gone to those offering a GPRS solution (sim in the meter), which is not what CYAN have developed (mesh radio with SIM in the data concentrator units).

So, like with most emerging tech, it's all very uncertain.

It will be interesting to watch it unfold.

Will be interesting to see what the H2 loss figure is showing. H1 was a loss of almost £5 million.

My best guess is £4.5m in the bank....burning at a rate of c.£1M a month. Again just my best estimations. May be out or close.

Can genuinely say I don't want to see any PI lose his shirt - especially those who bought in a long time ago on the story of imminent orders. My frustration is more with the CYAN bod and what I deem as under delivery.

There are however, a high number of dismissive PI's (some of which are inexperienced) who will continue to jump aboard with 'the dream' firmly in their sights.....very ready to defend a company they're not that familiar with.

Rgds.

[owenski] 30/1/2018 21:28

hahahaha

I did spy from the distance a pitiful looking plastic box which I suppose housed their world beating tech. The tech that's strapped to an Indian lamp post or whatever.

They all looked well fed to me though. lol

[lwaxf13] 30/1/2018 21:25

I dont blame you. You might have found yourself signing up to a multi million $$$ deal. For lunch did they have home made cheese sandwiches pulled out of brief cases or were they feasting on gourmet delivered food?

[lwaxf13] 30/1/2018 21:20

Strange, why would a world leading company go to an investor show? Smacks of desperation - please buy our shares ;-) World leading companies don't need to attend promotional shows to pump their stock. Maybe they had a pop up stand next to Google, Intel, Apple, Amazon, Tesla ;-)

[owenski] 30/1/2018 20:43

CYAN were at the investor show, London today, didn't see a lot of interest at their stand, surprised one of you lot haven't made the effort to go and give some feedback. lol

[realist1950] 30/1/2018 19:51

LSE board is highly emotional.

It's impossible to create any sensible discussion or debate without being 'chased out of town'.

That's the problem when you're underwater........the blinkers come out and any bear perspective is not welcomed.

But I'm not gloating.

It seems impossible but there is only one day left in January.

That'll be another >£1M of cash burnt then (?)

[lwaxf13] 30/1/2018 13:38

Helloooo. Five years?!! They are in way over their heads here IMO and will only bring more destruction to this company as they flip flop from one failed strategy to the next. All the while rewarding themselves like they are bringing success here.

[stupidboypike] 30/1/2018 12:49

FWIW, I agree with johnwall. It's the same in the software industry I'm in. What really matters is if the BOD can get this to where we all want it to be. As far as I can see the BOD's interests are very aligned with our in that respect. Particularly in setting the option prices higher than their entitlement. It's easy to criticise but I have had similar delays with my own businesses. Sometimes that's how it goes. If they deliver in the end all negativity will be forgotten.

Best regards
SBP

[johnwall] 30/1/2018 12:15

realist1950 - thanks for your reply. I've already said I agree the CC Board are generously remunerated. On the other hand, key staff in the biotech sector, which is my background, enjoy similar packages. At least in this case the key personnel have track records of building value in previous companies, which is clearly what investors are relying on here. Whether their remuneration is 'extraordinarily generous', or actually good value for money, we'll only be able to judge when the business is sold.

This is all pretty routine stuff. It's difficult to see why you keep making such a large number of lengthy posts about it unless you have some other agenda.

[realist1950] 30/1/2018 11:14

It seems odd to me, given historic R&D spend that the CTO is not prominent enough to feature under staff on the company website or indeed even in the renumeration section of the 2016 Annual Report.

We are often told about how the product has received considerable development hours and is a world leading product in it's class, yet there appears to be a lack of detail with regards the R&D spend.

This strikes me as odd, but perhaps others are comfortable with it.

[realist1950] 30/1/2018 10:26

This is a question I've posted on another board, hoping to find an answer:

Just looking at CYAN's R&D spend over the years....it's not inconsiderable and runs into many millions of pounds.

They must therefore have a good CTO and a strong product development team.

Given this is a tech company, unusually in CYAN's case, the CTO does not seem to be listed on the companies website.

Does anyone know who the CTO is or who heads up their product development team?

Thank you.

[realist1950] 30/1/2018 10:22

Good morning Johnwall,

Sorry...I had a very busy second half to the day and could not reply.

Thanks for your answer, which I appreciate. At least someone, somewhere online has been prepared to look at the figures and comment.

Just to clarify, it's not a personal dislike of the CEO. I'm a numbers man.

As the issue of cash, raising cash and cash burn has been a pretty central theme to CYAN over the years, I don't think it's unreasonable to question the companies cost base and of course included in that is the matter of staffing costs.

Given that the company has, to date, not achieved any significant revenue (at least not significant enough to enable the company to remain as a going concern without the raising of funds via placings), it's fair to look at what the people running the business are paying themselves and to ask if they're delivering value, or to what extent they're delivering value.

If what you say is correct, to the best of my knowledge, it might imply, in John Cronin's case only, the following:

Over the past three years, he has received the following:

2014 & 2015 renumeration in cash: £682,476

2016 renumeration of approx £350,000 (which was subsequently elected to purchase shares in the company).

If that's incorrect, please do tell me. I'm all ears.

Also, given the statement in the RNS I have previously flagged together with John Cronin's words spoken at the 2016 Investor speech, are we to assume the 2016 figure was for six months service only?

Whether it's for six months, or twelve months (lets say for this example, it's for 12 months) I question whether people think that pay (whether in cash or cash converted into shares) represents value?

You'll all have your own opinions on that.

Personally I think the overall renumeration offered to the BOD at CYAN is extraordinarily generous and not commensurate to what has actually been achieved. But I accept that's just my view and of course others may see it differently.

The last point I would make is, regardless if a director is paid in cash, or paid in cash which he is then obliged to use to buy shares, it still represents a drain on the companies resources.

You have to decide whether the figures in play are something you can comfortably buy into, or, if they're intolerable to you. My decision is governed, in part, by CYAN's past and present funding predicament vs. revenues achieved.

On that basis the renumeration package is more than an awkward reality.

Thanks for your reply all the same.

All without prejudice and in my opinion only. ADYOR.

[lwaxf13] 30/1/2018 08:11

5p would be 0.025p in old money. That would be a major achievement by the Cyan team. I have faith they can do it. Their track record says no problem for them :-)

[lucicavi] 30/1/2018 07:42

Looks like heading for 5p will warn soon enough