Cvs Share Discussion Threads

[lomax99] 11/2/2015 07:52

A bit more of a drop and it will be time to top up, again.

[eburne1960] 31/1/2015 18:33

Good to see Jim Slater has a large family interest in this and is tipping it:

[gargleblaster] 16/1/2015 18:02

This stock just keeps pouring it on - yet the thread is "church-mouse quiet". Still maybe we should just keep CVS a secret!?!?

[eburne1960] 08/12/2014 11:40

Agreed - rather like its "sister" company DTY it's a nice long termer.

[lomax99] 08/12/2014 08:13

eburne - I certainly hope not. As the other main consolidator, in a fragmented market where the two leaders combined only have a c. 25% market share, CVSG has much further to run under it's own steam.

[eburne1960] 05/12/2014 16:49

I'm sure I read somewhere recently that Pets At Home was looking to build up its veterinary side, so I wonder if there is speculation CVS might get taken out?

[gargleblaster] 05/12/2014 13:59

Good news in the AGM statement - also impressive that the share price is up despite being ex-div

"The Board is pleased to announce that in the four month period ended 31
October 2014 the Group's like-for-like sales grew by 8.7% compared to the same
period last year. Like-for-like percentage growth in the Veterinary Practice
Division was higher than growth for the whole of the previous financial year.
This improvement reflects the initiatives the Group has made over recent years
as well as the mild autumn weather and continuing improvement in general
economic conditions. In Animed Direct, our on-line dispensary, sales grew by
the same absolute amount as in the comparable period for 2013.

Profitability for the period to 31 October 2014 is in line with the Board's
expectations given the improved like-for-like sales figures."

Androvitch - must admit that I am a bit lazy at doing PEG calculations these days - particularly the 1 year rolling PEG which involves proportionally using earnings growth from the current and previous years. Therefore I just use the figures which I get off Sharescope and Company Refs.

One issue that is more focussed on nowadays is the prospective PER, and the projected rate of earnings growth, whereas you are looking at historic growth. Where have you got your 20% earnings growth figure from - it looks like an average over the last three years?

However the projected consensus EPS for 2015 is 21.5 compared with 8.67 for 2014 (an increase of 148%). Company refs gives a forward PE ratio of 19.9 and combined with a 55.2% rate of earnings growth (based on part historic and part projected growth) - this gives a forward 1 year rolling PEG of 0.36.

Admittedly at the moment the 2 year rolling PEG is projected to be much higher as earnings slow - but these are far more likely to be subject to revision. In the light of today's figures N+1 Singer will be updating their projections. I will let you know when I have them. Hope that helps.

[johnthespacer] 04/12/2014 07:58

Ex dividend today and also AGM Statement

[androvitch] 03/12/2014 22:51

garglebaster, Not totally sure how you are calculating the PEG. Pls correct where I am getting it wrong. trailing P/E is over 50, approx 54 at close today. Earnings growth is approx 20%. 54/20 is over 2.5x. I agree that we should look for shares with PEG less than 1, but not sure this counts.

I think Earnings will continue to grow, if they just let their acquisitions mature without further investment, I suspect underlying earnings could be 2x what they report. But even then it would be a high valuation.

I also like to look at EV/EBITDA ratios, with an advantaged growth business sometimes achieving 20x on this multiple, e.g. in trade acquisitions (typically this ratio would be 10x - 12x for a good quality stable, slow growth business). For CVSG, this ratio is 27x (241 mkt cap + 34 debt) / (7.5 op profit + 2.8 deprn). In theory, we should also add in capitalised value of leases, which would increase the ratio.

I would hold at EV/EBITDA of 20x, and Buy if it falls substantially below this again.

[gargleblaster] 03/12/2014 17:59

androvitch - agree that this has gone to dizzying heights, and normally a chart like this will lead to a tumble sooner or later. However it is still on a 1 year rolling PEG of only 0.37 which means that if the projected growth rate is achieved then it is still very cheap.

I quite like the fact that the chart has recently gone up in "tiers" - which means there is a good logical place to put in a stop loss each time it ratchets up. dyor etc.

[androvitch] 03/12/2014 17:39

Hard to time it perfectly at the top!

[gargleblaster] 03/12/2014 16:31

It is looking even more toppy today then!

[androvitch] 02/12/2014 13:03

Those of you looking back through posts will already know my views on this great business. But sometimes the price accelerates faster than business performance, and this one now feels toppy on all valuation multiples. Great business does not always equal great stock.

Sold down my holding over the last week. But I'll keep my eye on this and buy back in when performance catches up with the share price.

Looking for what to do with the proceeds - similarly advantaged businesses, simple business model, clear growth path. Ideas?

[mike24] 21/11/2014 08:23

having just spent a bloody fortune on vet fees
its a licence to print money
eight out ten visits are just problems related to food
so easy to change diets, get dogs away from all this rich food
they survived and were in better health before all these pet food
suppliers even existed

[luckymouse] 09/10/2014 01:03

tipped? bid?

[lomax99] 19/9/2014 08:15

Cracking set of numbers, like-for-like Sales up c. 7% and profits up just under 20%. All the more impressive given the significant investment in central admin/infrastructure costs, which provides a solid platform for growth going forward. Added a few more.

[woodcutter] 21/7/2014 13:24

lots of news today on revenue growth but no mention of profit growth/margin.

I like this business and the CEO's history of delivering i.e. spec savers but it's beginning to look over cooked imv.

From a TA perspective, despite a good candle pattern there are a number of indicators/oscillators which are suggesting there's a strong -ve divergence between price and the RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. We've seen this a few months ago and the trend made a small reversal. This time i suspect we'll see a double top before it falls back to close todays gap and possibly rest somewhere around 310p.

It's also moving against the general retailers index trend which also suggests it might be overpriced. (why it's in the general retailers sector who knows?)

From an FA perspective it carries quite a bit of debt and it's trading on a per which is historically higher then recent years.

Conclusion, it looks expensive, wait until price falls to something more reasonable.

Woody

[woodcutter] 11/6/2014 12:08

well i sold mine this morning after such a spike in price...........a little premature?


It's begining to look well overpriced and has spent a week now outside the upper bollinger band so at some point it must retrace!

WC

[mike24] 11/6/2014 08:37

regret selling these a while back, knowing they are
looking for good location sites, which have large parking
facilities, so many smaller practises are in poor locations
and those within pets at home can't open till 9am

edit well done woodcutter, but the chart looks good for further rises
I work in advertising (artwork) the vets I deal with are extending hours to cope
edit
28/7 339p chart says hold/take profits,
am ready if dow could make's a decent temporary retrace,

bt,ng top of buy list, nai

[loafingchard] 09/4/2014 17:43

Couple of large trades today 2x 285k @ 311p

[loafingchard] 21/3/2014 10:22

Yes , moving in the right direction , looking to buy some more now.

[lomax99] 21/3/2014 08:10

A solid set of results. As they can acquire an adjusted PE of 4.5, I would like to see them prioritise that more through a mixture of debt/equity funding.

[the dogsbody] 26/2/2014 19:12

"electronically tag dogs in the UK" not a very good description!
Microchips can be put into animals by any trained implanter. Lets hope by 2016 all manufacturers will have ironed out the problems of chips which are faulty and stop working.

[loafingchard] 26/2/2014 18:38

Presumably these tags will be a small implant that vets will inject underthe skin ? Anyone know ?Could be a nice little side line over the next couple of years .