Crystal Amber Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 18/6/2013 12:35

I suspect they are fairly relaxed on the level of buy-backs as they expect to be issuing far more new shares in the relative near future. Their priority is keeping the discount narrow up to that point to ease the placement.

[cockerhoop] 17/6/2013 12:42

I currently estimate NAV to be £1.341.

[edwardt] 12/6/2013 16:19

it all depends in how i reinvest!

[dashton42] 12/6/2013 14:58

It's never too soon to take profits...

I'm letting mine ride though, so between us, I think we've covered all options?!

[edwardt] 12/6/2013 11:26

all a bit tricky for me - have top sliced a few. i suspect there will be some more good news from the portfolio which will make my decision look foolish!

[cockerhoop] 11/6/2013 14:02

As i've said previously I think the buybacks will continue to support the share price allowing a secondary issue of shares at around NAV. The newly issued shares are likely to be tightly held as they probably will be issued at a premium to the prevailing share price suggesting the institutional buyers are taking a medium to long term view.
My concern is if the buybacks then cease the discount may well widen again though I do accept that if the good investment performance continues along with the higher profile the secondary issue brings the perception of CRS may improve keeping the discount in single figures.

[dashton42] 11/6/2013 13:26

I notice that the buybacks have been continuing recently, but now it's more of a drip-feed of smaller purchases. I don't know if that's an indication that the buy-back program is drawing to a halt for now.

btw, Simon Thompson has revisited the investment case for CRS in Investors Chronicle today, and basically advises running profits, in the expectation that any secondary issue of shares will help to raise the profile of the company.

[cockerhoop] 11/6/2013 12:12

Except the facts don't really bear that out - the discount is almost exactly correlated to the buyback campaign:-

The discount was approx 20% discount through April-Nov 2012. A buyback programme was then initiated and the discount narrowed to approx 10% by 31/12/12.

Buybacks were then suspended until March and the discount again widened to 20% by 28/02/13. Buybacks were resumed and have continued aggressively to todays position of a low single figure discount.

Whilst the underlying performance has been good, it apparent in Jan/Feb of this year during the phase of discount widening as the buyback were turned off.

[edwardt] 11/6/2013 10:49

suspect you are right!

[agnes] 08/6/2013 15:41

NAV was up 35% in 2012 and is up a further 13% in the first 5 months of 2013. Maybe good performance is something that has narrowed the discount.

[cockerhoop] 07/6/2013 10:12

I think we're in a relative special situation here, I suspect Invesco would like a larger holding but are constrained by the fact they already own approx 30.0%. They may therefore be happy to purchase newly issued shares at NAV but clearly it would be much more palatable for them if the share price is close to NAV at the point of issue.

I therefore believe that CRS are being particularly aggressive with the buyback program currently to narrow the discount to successfully allow the issue of new shares which will obviously increase the total management fees they receive in the medium term.

IMO once the new shares are issued the discount may widen in the short term to more historic levels therefore I see more short term downside than upside at the moment with regard to the discount to NAV.

[edwardt] 07/6/2013 09:56

yes but surely in a illiquid fund such as this, the scale of the buyback has had a profound impact on decreasing the discount and increasing the market cap? Whilst this is welcome for a long term shareholder such as me, it surely increases the risk of this strategy as most trusts such as this trade at much wider discounts?? good nav update though!

[agnes] 22/5/2013 13:52

Management fee is based on market cap which goes down every time there is a buy back.

[edwardt] 22/5/2013 10:40

buy backs will help them increas their management fee - somewhat conflicted in my view..

[dashton42] 22/5/2013 08:16

Another chunky buyback yesterday. Thanks for the updated nav - was just going to ask!

[cockerhoop] 20/5/2013 13:23

I estimate the current NAV to be £1.328, THT obviously doing well.

[cockerhoop] 15/5/2013 15:41

Thanks Dashton,

I think it was actually LMS which also appears to fit the description.

[cockerhoop] 15/5/2013 12:40

To facilitate a successful fund raising at NAV, CRS surely have to do everything they can to narrow the discount in the run up.

[cockerhoop] 15/5/2013 12:35

Dashton,

Off topic but I know you follow ST in IC - has he just tipped NRI (I've just received an email from IC that could relate to them).

Many thanks

[dashton42] 15/5/2013 08:12

The buy-backs probably help, as well. Yesterday's was a decent size.

[edwardt] 14/5/2013 15:43

we will see but my guess is that the share price is reacting to the potential fund raise.

[dashton42] 13/5/2013 12:08

I don't know about that (although the share price seems to be moving today on something), but I've just noticed that Simon Thompson has recommended THT today in Investor's Chronicle.

This is a bit more relevant to CRS now, with their larger holding.

[edwardt] 13/5/2013 10:01

any further thoughts on the likely fund raising - it strikes me as odd but could well push us higher as and when details are released...