Countryside Partnerships Share Discussion Threads

[bogdan branislov] 12/11/2019 10:24

The Woodford fund appears to have sold all its CSP holdings, or transferred them to someone else who sold them. Does anyone know what happened here and is Woodford now fully exited?

[bogdan branislov] 07/11/2019 11:29

IC's genuine growth screen was published today. CSP was the highest rated. IC's growth screens actually have a major weakness. They focus on earnings growth and largely ignore balance sheet equity growth. If the earnings don't transfer into shareholder funds then the earnings have no benefit for shareholders. As it happens CSP's balance sheet equity growth has also been very strong and consistent. Interestingly my second largest holding, MGNS, came fourth in the screen, also producing very strong balance sheet equity growth. The fact that these companies have produced such good results during the destructive climate of uncertainty that has prevailed within their respective sub-sectors over recent years, highlights just how solid and well poised these companies actually are. Have the courage of your convictions and remain fully invested.

[bogdan branislov] 12/10/2019 01:05

From 2009 until about 2016/17 I saw my investments grow nearly 10x. Since then I have been treading water more or less with small gains. The stocks I held were and still are the best out there, pretty safe but very under valued. During the quiet last 2 to 3 years, these stocks have piled on the profits and the balance sheet equity growth, i.e. the profits were real, albeit with no price moves to speak of. In other words, my holdings had huge amounts of pent up value. Top of this pile is CSP. The pent up value in CSP is enormous, don't take early profits, CSP has some way to go. If you currently hold CSP, you have passed the two critical investment tests both of being right and of being able to sit tight - it has not been easy to sit tight of late, you deserve your gains, this is just the beginning for CSP.

[killieboy] 11/10/2019 18:36

Any idea as to why the rise today?

[blueclyde] 30/9/2019 19:16

Thank you. I am expecting the shares to trade up to 500p in the next few weeks. As has already been mentioned much of the future revenue is already in the bag so to speak. That along with strong cash generation could make the company a bid target as the revenue growth is fairly certain and growing which another bigger company may want to leverage.

[olliemagern] 30/9/2019 17:22

Current eps f/c for year ending Sept 2020 is 44p, but this could be upgraded now the off site timber frame construction factory is up and running, and completions are set to accelerate next year.

[blueclyde] 21/9/2019 09:15

Does anyone know what the projected earnings are for next year?

[olliemagern] 20/9/2019 16:27

As Sigma provide the financing for their 5000 houses to be built by Countryside over the next three years, CSP's ROCE is bound to improve and look goood. But the main benefit is that the partnership houses are pre sold making CSP almost recession proof. Looking forward to next years partnership completions accelerated growth, with timber wall, window, insulation and floor systems being quality built off site.

[blueclyde] 19/9/2019 22:32

I am no accountant Bogdan so can not really comment on the ROCE ect. I read the analyst presentation and I believe it states that earnings per share for the year will be 40p, based on analysts expectations so if they are quoting this I imagine they will beat it? I would be interested to know what the expected EPS for next year is as I read somewhere that it will increase considerably due to build timings ect?

[blueclyde] 10/9/2019 21:42

Current years adjusted earnings per share will be 40p with circa 80 million cash on the balance sheet at year end. I expect these to trade towards 400p plus in the coming weeks.

[blueclyde] 04/9/2019 15:01

Barratt Developments put out a decent set of numbers today which confirms the U.K. housing market is fine. Slight pull back but is up 30 percent year to date.We know Countryside are fully reserved for the full year. This share price is going to make a big move soon perhaps when the full year results are spelt out to the market.

[blueclyde] 26/8/2019 19:44

Good post Bogdan! I located the results presentation and it gives the 2019 full year projected earnings in black in white which are very good year on year growth.I also noted the slide which details the cash balance which is projected to be £80-£90 million at year end and to grow by £60 million year on year. That is serious money. This share doesn't seem to be on anyones radar as backed up by the lack of posts here.I am happy to take the dividends and wait. The huge land bank and cash generation to me makes it a top take over target with the pound weak.

[blueclyde] 28/7/2019 13:34

However, we are fully reserved for private sales for the full year and fully sold for both PRS and Affordable homes. With build programmes on track, our focus now continues to be one of converting our private for sale reservations into completions in the fourth quarter.I am not sure the market managed to pick up just how good the trading update was. I am not sure what the full year expectations for there year are EPS wise but it looks like they will be hit. Also does anyone have a link to the presentation the did a month or so back at the investor day?

[blueclyde] 26/7/2019 08:41

The RNS splits out the plots between the two divisions. So they increased the number of plots by over 3000 whilst completing 200 builds in the quarter. They really are going to start ramping up big time as far as I can see.

[bogdan branislov] 26/7/2019 00:58

The new plots are partnership deals as far as I can see, which means they do not have a high capital outlay as CSP do not generally own the plots. The new plots are therefore mostly contracts to build. In terms of 3,000 plots per quarter, I think that CSP will have to ramp up to this output quite quickly as over 12,000 new plots, or rather no of contracts to build were obtained in H1 alone. These contracts to build are not like a land bank in the sense that the local authorities will want CSP to get on with it, they won't be allowed to sit on the build contracts for years like they might a land bank. Output in H1 was c43% up year on year, less in Q3, but Q4 is expected to be expansive again, perhaps the full year will see a c30% increase in output. Even thought the partnership model is capital light, the high rate of expansion inevitably creates a drain on cash as so many new build sites are being set up and established, also, CSP is investing heavily in its timber housing frame production sites which are expected to support the strong margins on the partnership side of the business. All looks compelling to me. This is all good, I would also point out that if any company was expanding at c30% per annum and was sitting on a growing cash surplus during such a period of expansion, then I would be very suspicious of the cash figures. For CSP, the growth profile linked to the margins and the cash position for the rapid expansion phase all make make sense to me.

[blueclyde] 25/7/2019 13:45

I could be wrong but they are selling pretty much all they are building for the year and this is ramping up. You can't really say debt is a negative when I think off the top of my head they have now acquired over 30,000 plots.For example this quarter they purchased 3000 plots and completed 200 builds which keeps them on track to deliver full year earnings. For example at some point they can ramp up to 3000 builds per quarter?

[bogdan branislov] 25/7/2019 10:46

I think that the statement is okay actually. Bear in mind that the first half of the year was well ahead of the previous year and the construction schedule suggests that the final quarter should be well ahead also. Woodford is likely to have to unload, but it may well be another block transfer to another fund(s). The profit growth for this year is forecast to be decent, but there is a lot going on with the business and the full extent of CSP's profit growth and the underlying balance sheet equity growth won't be fully clear until the year end results. Seeing the year end results linked to a clearer outcome timetable for Brexit and the resolution of the Woodford holdings would clear the way for CSP to re-rate significantly. All should become clear over the next few months. In the meantime, CSP is selling very cheaply relative to its growth projection, giving investors a considerable margin of safety. The recovery in the share price, will happen at some point and is likely to rapid when it does. Those waiting on the sidelines are likely to lose out. Remember that share prices climb the 'wall of worry'. By the time all factors becomes fully clear, the share price could easily be twice the current level and not at such a great entry point. Bogdan

[king_baller] 25/7/2019 08:35

I’m not sure it will be that well received short term. Quotes include: ‘Laying the foundations for future growth’, and ‘Despite ongoing political uncertainty’. Net debt up, average sale price slightly down, completions slightly down. I agree a long term buy, but with Woodford still needing to eventually sell his large stake I think this will stay at these levels in the short term.

[blueclyde] 25/7/2019 07:52

Nice trading update! That order but well over a billion now! I expect this to break the highs pretty soon!

[blueclyde] 13/6/2019 18:54

I think the news is hugely bullish! I was wondering why the share price has been going down for the last month and in that period Woodford has sold down from 15% to 10%. His lose is going to be someone else's gain here!

[eaglebeagle] 13/6/2019 10:31

I’ll buy them. Great opportunity

[king_baller] 13/6/2019 00:10

Is anyone concerned that Woodford, after he sells off his illiquid assets and reopens his equity income fund, will face a huge wave of redemption requests? I don’t think he’ll close his fund, but I’m concerned that half may want to leave at the earliest opportunity. This would mean around 5 per cent of CSP will be up for immediate sale. Surely dreadful for the SP? What a mess.