Conviviality Share Discussion Threads

[s1zematters] 28/3/2018 15:21

thumbs up from me Mr Ant. Thank you for all your hard work saving these malingerers and moaners FROM THEMSELVES!

[bullet ant] 27/3/2018 16:30

Me me me always gets thumbs down. I saved hundred of thousands of genuine investors hard cash over the years.

I saved people billions and I would even say many billions. Yes I am going in bad period now, I am being forced into cold Turkey by gran, to sort my many hardcore addition problems (fast women, high escorts, massive boozing, "coke" and shs gabling!!!!!).

Please pray for ant everyone, I want to continue stop the likes of assjammer sucking gullible punters into massive singularities.


BA
Stealing is good

[bullet ant] 26/3/2018 21:57

Oh My Gawd

ROBIZM is here. He was buying ami from 250p till 10p administration.

Is this scam ever coming out of suspension?

I stated before suspension there should be forensic accountant going thru past accounts.

If there's a massive blackhole, that means the company been insolvent for a while, and usually when a company is insolvent, it goes in administration immediately.


Assjammer was telling me to buy 16:29 on the last day of trading.

BA
Stealing is good.

[robizm] 26/3/2018 07:57

sure ashtesd was covenant probs. bought them at 10p sold for a £1. not one of my best decisions

[buywell3] 26/3/2018 07:30

So wait till this is 5p ... is that the message ?

[buoycat] 25/3/2018 23:26

Perhaps best to take a long term view here. I remember back in 2004 being relieved to sell Ashtead group at around 100p before the share price plummeted to 5p due to accounting problems of some sort that I can't recall exactly. Share price today...over 1900p

[buywell3] 24/3/2018 16:35

This is now a punt NOT an investment

I am not a punter

I am IMO an investor ... big difference

Anyone here taking a punt into the unknown outcome now is a punter

If the cap fits ... wear it

[york investor] 24/3/2018 16:10

thanks nanorisk , I agree there is trading risk now for the business, however I dont believe customers will intentionally hold back paying CVR what they owe (that would just be bad for there business in the long run) and likewise large suppliers have given there support to CVR, again not in there long term interest for CVR to fail.
Some smaller suppliers may ask for payment up front but you are only talking relatively small amounts. The main thing is getting the placing and offer through.

[fozzie] 24/3/2018 15:53

Good post nanorisk, i am not a holder but believe that they will get the funding they need to continue and that they will recover from this near catastrophe. It's a gamble but i will take a small position on resumption of trading.

[nanorisk] 24/3/2018 08:09

I believe the main reason the numbers don't add up is Conviviality's cashflow. While £125million seems a lot of money they are a £1.5billion a year turnover company so that's roughly £120million a month going out the door in total (and USUALLY £125million coming in the door giving the £60million or so profit per year...). That's a bit like me or you being completely broke then being handed 1 months salary to sort out all our finances. Unfortunately, they are now in the vicious trap of having to pay suppliers up front while customers are hanging onto payments so cash is almost all going the wrong way. To put it another way £125million a month is about £6million per working day on average.

Hence overall they have to pay a £30million tax bill, a £30million revolving credit bill plus at least 10 working days paying suppliers up front so another £30million (half of all outgoings to be conservative) say. So that's roughly £90million accounted for already. There seems no way out for them as many suppliers will refuse to revert to normal credit terms for many weeks/months.

Afraid cashflow is likely to kill them in weeks even if they manage to raise the money. Afraid I think the fund managers will see through this and Tuesday will be the end. I've been wrong many times before though.....

PS, PwC were charging Carillion £0.5million per day all by themselves.

[buywell3] 23/3/2018 18:09

Some folks seem easily pleased

profit warnings tend to come in 3's


W1NDJAMMER10 Mar '18 - 08:46 - 415 of 1014
0 0 0
well thats it, have given it 1.5 hours this morning, and i am happy with my
buys circa 105p think the share price is good for 200p will buy more if share price falls further.

WJ.

[york investor] 23/3/2018 17:52

hope it is saved, apparently meeting today at Investec offices with 12 largest II`s .

To me the figures still don`t add up even if tax bill was totally un acccounted for and trading is EBITDA , 20mill should be substantially below revised £100 mill net debt .
If Placing happens dont think I could afford to risk any more, so expecting to lose 90% of my investmnet (approx 20K).

All I can think is that there has been some sort of Fraud, needs investigating by FCA anyone know if it is possible to get them involved?

[electrick] 23/3/2018 12:19

I was in hengrove (by the Matthew C office) earlier this morning. Mood upbeat. Working hard. Tough for staff at the moment but like everyone waiting progress. Some stops in place... many suppliers supporting. Still going!! Love the daft ness on the board. Keep it up

[bullet ant] 23/3/2018 11:57

NO

Your MA is doing that for you, sick PERV.

BA
Stealing is good

[hibberts] 23/3/2018 09:55

Word of mouth, a driver went to collect a load this morning and was told to go away as MC has gone under.

[samdb] 23/3/2018 09:11

Your source was probably talking about CVR

[r ball] 23/3/2018 08:54

Do share link. Thanks

[hibberts] 23/3/2018 08:45

I have just heard that Matthew Clark has gone bust.

[sudnal] 23/3/2018 00:25

hxxp://www.the-buyer.net/insight/conviviality-faces-going-bust-if-recovery-funding-plan-does-not-work/

Thought this article provided a balanced view of the current position of the company. As stated in the article, this is a genuine profit making business facing short term cash flow challenges. It's fate however is now firmly in the hands of institutional investors, who i think will rescue the company given their large shareholding in the company. Its in no one's interest to bring it down. Also, elevating proven leaders in execution capacity like James Lousada is a wise move. There are many other businesses out there with 10 times or larger debts with weaker business models, that are running with financial institutions supporting them with further financing. I genuinely believe that this will emerge stronger if rescued. Glad to note some honest words coming out from their leadership team and genuinely feel that lessons are being learnt.

I'm sure the guys out there with lots of negative comments genuinely are venting their frustration with sudden unforeseen announcements one after another and i sincerely believe with hand on their hearts they would want the company to pull through this mess. Its a lot at stake for the employees and everyone who are dependant on this company for their livelihood.

[typo56] 22/3/2018 11:02

EdmundJ, I think many of us recognised it for what it was, just we thought there was enough time available to try and be clever and trade it from 100p to, say, 120p. As someone put it so well yesterday, punters who attempted to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller have learnt a harsh lesson! The HMRC story was IMO the final giveaway that reality was well adrift of the numbers, just suspension meant there was no exit at that point.

[edmondj] 22/3/2018 10:49

Yes, agreed, but ultimately it's 'buyer beware' of an acquisition vehicle like this, i.e. if you are going to play the stock then be cynically aware of the risks and alert to any deviation from plan - the trigger here (late last year) being not achieving the margin gains they had promised. Once one has lost out, at least the beast becomes more recognisable in future.