Connect Share Discussion Threads

[stewart64] 12/7/2017 20:51

Retsius agree with your comments re. similarity to Carillion. I bailed on this one on the 9th June post election result seeking safety in internationals. The debt and tiny operating margin are the common features.
Tbf to Connect it has had an incredibly stable profit and improving balance sheet for a few years

[chickenvindaloo] 12/7/2017 18:53

You can leave the scheme at any time but you only get back what you've saved i.e. no interest AFAIK. None of the documentation mentions interest anyway.
I could stay in the scheme for the final year @ £100/month and get 2800 shares.
Bail now and buy the shares now with what I've saved and get 2550 shares at today's price.
In other words, pay in another £1200 for 250 shares extra. I'm out!
I'm in two minds whether to buy Connect myself or keep the cash sitting.

[fenners66] 12/7/2017 17:26

Shorttracker not showing anything for Connect - I am new to that so not sure if its because Connect is too small and not covered or not.

IF this is not being shorted then what? Nearly 10% yield?

I have bought shares with 10% yields which did actually transpire and the sp's rose considerably.

I have to admit the rights issue and business purchase theory does have legs.
Been there before instis sounded out and jumping ship.

[fenners66] 12/7/2017 17:21

chicken - sorry to say I laughed out loud at your downhill skier analogy !

If the 2015 scheme is underwater you don't have to buy the shares do you? Do they give you interest on the money instead? If so is that better than a bank?

If things continue to go pear-shaped with the share price here and you buy there are no second chances to change your mind.

[chickenvindaloo] 12/7/2017 16:23

@fenners66 - i am in the 2016 scheme and have already signed up to the 2017 scheme although it hasn't started yet I can't change my monthly amount now. The poster in our canteen advertising the 2017 scheme asks the question "What will you save for?" with a picture of a downhill skier. Going downhill fast like the share price.
The next trading update I suspect will be very positive on the parcel division but before the sale of the education division, parcel freight was only ten percent of the group by turnover.
Under £1 now as I type.

[retsius] 12/7/2017 16:01

Not in this stock but used to hold them.
There is a whiff of Carillion about this stock at the moment with nervous investors bailing out,however they recently sold off part of the Group to realise excellent cash. Latest TS was steady as it goes.
I think this has been massively over sold due to nerves and it may require a management statement before the 24/07 to calm the nerves.
Of course it takes a brave investor to buy against the strong downward trend.
R.

[danieldruff2] 12/7/2017 15:12

If it settles at 100p prior to the next update, above theories would look ever more likely!

[lord gnome] 12/7/2017 15:09

The only thing I can think of Aleman is that the seller(s) hold(s) off in the morning to let the share price recover a little and then open up the selling to take it down again. I sold mine in two lots first thing yesterday, achieved 109 and 108.5. Best prices of the day as it turned out.

By the way, cynical me, the CEO confirmed that the education and care division disposal would not affect the progressive dividend policy. In total maybe, but it may just be rebased on a per share basis to take account of the extra shares in circulation. Now where have I seen that before?

[aleman] 12/7/2017 14:53

Unfortunately, that seems to make sense. I've been around a while and seen similar before. It still doesn't quite explain the pattern that has repated in recent days, regardless of the general market direction. recent days are still odd.

[lord gnome] 12/7/2017 14:48

Ok, I've been doing a bit of crystal ball gazing (always dangerous) and here's my take on things. So we sell the education and care division and appoint a joint broker. We announce that we are concentrating on our key area of focus, so I would guess that Wordery might also be on the block. We are now looking for an acquisition to replace lost turnover and profits and to give scale to the delivery / distribution businesses. This could be announced on 24th July along with a placing / rights issue to fund the purchase. Hence, the weakness in the share price with those being lined up to take the new shares forcing down the price and selling their existing shares higher up. I've seen it before.
I may be a million miles from the truth of it, so take my musings with a pinch of salt. I am however, keeping my cash safe in case I get a nice surprise on 24th July and decide to buy back my shares.

[edmundshaw] 12/7/2017 14:41

I have 5 smaller companies that are doing odd things price-wise at the moment. Three down, two up, mostly on no news or nothing special. It's July, odd things sometimes happen. But this is a bit odder than most... down quite so far and with strange trading patterns.

[danieldruff2] 12/7/2017 13:54

Of course it could be nothing. I was watching Gama Aviation decline to 125 for no obvious reason. Didn't buy. It's now 240 (for no obvious reason) - still kicking myself.

Difficult to see what is wrong here, worst case is a gentle decline in core markets.

Pass My Parcel is well short of anticipated scale, maybe only 20% of what they expected at the moment, causing ongoing small losses in that part of the business. Perhaps they are trying to buy rather than build scale in the click and collect market and the price is adjusting to whatever they are planning to do (just guesswork)

[aleman] 12/7/2017 13:46

Why do the shares open up every morning and then fall through mid session before recovering slightly and then flat-lining at the end? It's happened the last 5 sessions. It is not natural. Manipulation/shorting campaign? Very suspicious. Would a computer trading program affect a mid-cap this way?.

[fenners66] 12/7/2017 11:44

chicken - can you close the 2015 sharesave and start a 2017 sharesave instead?
Best of both worlds?

[chickenvindaloo] 12/7/2017 11:25

I'm on the verge of bailing out on the 2015 sharesave. Seems little point waiting until Sept 2018 to get shares at the discounted price of £1.28 (bargain, eh?). I'm gonna take a gamble and use the money to buy now and hope the price is all or mostly down to political/economic uncertainty e.g. Brexit etc.

[gurjit] 12/7/2017 07:27

Last 3 July trading updates have all been in first week or so of July - 7th, 5th & 8th.Does the delay this year to 24th July tell us something??!

[edmundshaw] 11/7/2017 16:14

The dividend appears affordable, but I think the company should consider freezing it until debt is reduced or the new businesses start flowing cash. It is quite good enough where it is even with a recovered share price.

I don't see the fundamental reasons for the low share price. But of course the company is still in the process of reinventing itself in logistics, and companies that reinvent themselves certainly go througha period of risk generally. Not every strand of the new ventures will be successful, so continued sharp management is essential.

Not panicking myself, but also not so bold as to continue adding on a reducing share price. Enough eggs in this basket...

[bartle] 11/7/2017 15:52

The current yield is now over 9%,which takes us into "too good to be true" territory. My guess is therefore that the market believes the dividend will not be maintained, hence the falling share price. As ever it will be difficult to call the bottom until there is news on the future dividend, if any. I'm just guessing, but as a holder I hope the market is being too pessimistic.

[lord gnome] 11/7/2017 13:54

I'm out. Taken a nasty loss, but that chart is telling us something.

[bloke1664] 11/7/2017 09:04

just checked shorttracker, and it doesn't show any short interest

[drectly] 10/7/2017 21:25

just checked Connect Website, apology, should have done first, trading update July 24th. They have enough monthly figures, even if for part of the business, for plenty of people to be aware of how they are doing.

[hawaly] 10/7/2017 21:08

Actually the next news due here on about 16 October.....could be a long hot summer.

[hawaly] 10/7/2017 21:08

AGM 26 Jan 2018 approx.

[drectly] 10/7/2017 19:56

there is a trading update on the 26th, but the ongoing downward trend indicates those already in the know are taking advantage. Lets hope it is not too bad, no obvious reason to sell or increase now, just wait and see.

[fangorn2] 10/7/2017 19:27

Someone seemingly "knows" something...

Same as over at Carillion....sellers galore for a while - and then,today's profit warning.

Possibly a leaky ship

Who knows these days