Columbus Energy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[toploadermike] 10/1/2019 14:34

Agreed John and spread staying fairly reasonable.

ATB
TL

[offerman] 10/1/2019 14:24

Good sign,And still the massive sales role in but this time with the difference the share price seems to be stronger and rising. Indicative of buying interest in the background since the quarterly update. Something appears to be going on .....

[dafrog] 10/1/2019 10:49

Sold quite a few, mostly bought as LGO. Loss of £12,500. The 3 monthly news updates have been very bad for this share. What else won't we be told about before April?

[toploadermike] 10/1/2019 10:45

Hope the spread stays like this on it's way up...

[nexus7] 09/1/2019 18:12

Oil Surges Above $52 on Saudi Assurances, China Trade Optimism

► U.S. gasoline, distillate stockpiles swell in EIA data
► Saudi oil minister doesn’t rule out further action on supply

Oil shrugged off bearish U.S. oil inventory data and kept on rallying, as Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its commitment to balancing the market and amid signs of progress in America’s trade talks with China.

Futures in New York climbed as much as 5.6 percent, extending their longest run of daily gains in a year and a half. Crude joined a rise in equities after officials said China had agreed to buy more energy and agricultural products from the U.S. after three days of talks in Beijing. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, offered fresh assurances that crude supplies will be kept in check...

[eggchaser] 09/1/2019 17:30

The boys and I have just got in from training and after a chat we are happy.For us it's not about the next game - we are in for the results at the end of our season.

[arrynillson] 09/1/2019 16:59

Offerman - those wells are charging faster than the bulls at Pamplona!

[toploadermike] 09/1/2019 16:40

Ccr,

I'm happy to say again, I think they are going to fly (just a matter of when), that's why I stuck a load more cash in yesterday and today.

More than happy to be aboard and BigMJ may well have been right all along....

good luck

ATB
TL

[ccr1958] 09/1/2019 16:35

Oil flying,this tanking ... RNS fluffy imo. CERP doing ok but way behind where I thought they would be ...

[toploadermike] 09/1/2019 16:18

Well spotted Jcg and what a great interview, he's chomping at the bit, I'm sure he has something he want's to say but can't!!

Glad I topped up a few hundred thou again today!!

ATB
TL

[jcgswims] 09/1/2019 15:22

Leo on Stocktube



or

[edgein] 09/1/2019 14:16

Offer,

Yes I'd imagine that the infrastructure in place at Bonasse should be capable of 1,000-2,000bopd and probably easily upgraded to 2-5000bopd. So should be easily capable of handling a discovery just below Bonasse and a phased development. Those larger prospects would be a different ball game and require multiple wells and infrastructure significantly larger than that at Bonasse or Icacos. That's where LK is likely to go knocking at the big fellas door for $40-50m development jv, but that's really counting chickens, we know that Vene is prolific and we're also in the East Vene basin and the shallow areas are prolific in T&T. But hopefully we know by mid year just how good the Herrera is too.

Regards,
Ed.

[offerman] 09/1/2019 14:11

The wells are charging Kazz so it's going really well so far .

[kazz] 09/1/2019 13:30

Would have been interesting for LK to have said how the water injection process was going?
regards....Kazz

[offerman] 09/1/2019 13:25

Thanks Ed. As always, a nice post. If they are on par with Venu then great. Of course if they drill very shallow ( lower CPD I assume) and can make a sizeable discovery ( by CERP standards 20-40) then if that is common through that layer then a quick route to additional infrastructure to tie in too as you mentioned .Of course if they can do debt for equity for additional mature fields and have conditions in place for P.S then that could work well over X amount of years. They have the experience for this then maybe a SOU - N.S type setup . If WF and continuation of work-overs across our six licenses continue improving that will also bolster capital . Gawd only knows how they will find 100m M&A if that still goes ahead .

[offerman] 09/1/2019 13:15

Another part of the RNS that I like is the 200 000 BOW as I had estimated just over 100k was injectedAt last investor presentation it was around 79000 bow is taking the average to that point and continuing the averages over the months until now they have done extremely well to increase that. More in more out reservoir charging not leaking so more goes in the more acreage then oil out. Open to correction but how it appears to me .

[jcgswims] 09/1/2019 12:43

Malcy's blog



Columbus Energy Resources
A full update from CERP this morning including the achievement of the year end production target of 1,000 b/d in December. The average was 670 b/d which given the atrocious weather conditions was quite an achievement under the circumstances. The Steeldrum assets and personnel integration and the Icacos deal were completed in the quarter and are adding to the broader attraction of the company. Indeed the company are still looking for ‘value accretive’ acquisitions in both Trinidad and more broadly in South America.

Despite the dreadful on site conditions the company maintained its cash flow positive position and also completed a £2.5m raise in the period. This leaves them with cash of $2.6m and $0.48m restricted. With an exciting drilling campaign in the South West Peninsula scheduled plus the integration of wells acquired and a number of workovers and appraisals to assess the outlook is very positive. With six fields operating plus exploration upside the company is heading towards the transformation that many feel that management is more than capable of.

[edgein] 09/1/2019 11:40

Offer,

Depends on how much you're expecting from each well for the Herrera. I'm expecting similar to Vene, somewhere between the 700-1700bopd per well for SWP, only much more sustainable than C-sands/goudron sands etc. Maybe 300-500bopd if its a really shallow one, 3000-5000ft rather than 11,000ft+. A free carry on the first prospect would likely be 60-40 or worse. That would be a much lower impact in terms of production/reserves and cash flow than 100%. It wouldn't do much to help fund acquisitions, it would help to pay off acquisitions rather than pay for them. It would make debt/equity a little easier to secure. Even Lind would be a better alternative imo than farm-out. Farm-out would only be best served to CERP if they drill one of the 200-400mmbbls targets and get a good well, then get one of the big fellas to come in for 50-50 carried development to 20-50,000bopd gross.

If they go for the low hanging, lower cost, fruit first the prospect that just dips down below Bonasse. Chances are any discovery there could be tied into Bonasse infrastructure at low cost. Then use that cash flow and SA cash flow to drill maybe two more developmental wells before y/e. A small discovery in the 20-40mmbbls range would still be high impact to the current 2P. If they had 100% wi in a small development such as this it would certainly help fund an acquisition from debt cash flow only and debt without equity. That would likely fund something in the range of $20-50m. How he intends to fund $100m deal is anyone's guess right now, but that would bring transformational reserves and production part debt part equity possibly at a premium to the current share price. CERP would then be one of the largest SA producers on AIM as a result. Also some of these proposals may be an agreed spend rather than upfront cash. Say phased development in Suriname for $50m over 5 years buys XX% of their assets.

Regards,
Ed.

[offerman] 09/1/2019 10:52

Morning JCGThanks for that.Let's not forget too that this share price forecast is based on a one year target according to FT.

[jcgswims] 09/1/2019 10:14

From VSA



Columbus Energy Resources (LON:CERP)
Columbus Energy Resources (CERP LN) reported Q4 2018 production averaging 670bopd resulting in full year average production of 615bopd in 2018 which was up 67% YoY and ahead of our full year estimate of 600bopd despite the impact of severe weather and record rainfall in Q4 2018. Quarterly production was 9% lower QoQ as moving workover rigs and routine operations were prevented by flooding which made roads impassable in Trinidad. Gross revenues of US$3.23m were down 16% QoQ owing to lower production and lower oil prices which averaged 5% lower QoQ at US$57.58/bbl.

That said, CERP achieved its year end target of 1,000bopd with peak production of 1,021bopd in the quarter. This included the initial production from the Snowcap 1 & 2 wells which achieved 70bopd after three years of shut in status. CERP had guided to an expected 100bfpd with part of the appraisal intended to assess the volumes of water production. After a successful appraisal we now expect pumped production to commence at Cory Moruga. We expect CERP production to bounce back from the impact of severe weather in Q1 2019 and workovers are continuing to progress across the operating fields, indeed the second pilot injection well at Goudron is ready for conversion to water injection in Q1 2019. CERP has guided that average production is likely to remain within the recent peak level in the near term which is line with our current expectations.

This unseasonably severe weather does in fact demonstrate clearly the importance of CERP’s acquisitions through 2018, at attractive valuations, which have diversified the operating base to six operating fields. With a reduced reliance on Goudron the company is better placed to withstand one-off shocks such as this while the investment made in operating infrastructure such as backup generators has meant that production was able to continue despite a temporary loss of grid power. Indeed, despite the reduction in output CERP continued to generate positive operational cashflow from its Trinidad operations of US$0.37m (US$0.54m in Q3 2018) which is a strong positive, in our view, and a clear demonstration of the company’s capital discipline and more robust asset base.

Cash at year end 2018 of US$2.6m (£1.7m) was broadly in line with our estimate of £1.5m while gross debt was further reduced to US$0.4m. This includes the net impact of the £2.5m fundraise in Q4 and repayment of the US$1.25m loan associated with the Steeldrum acquisition. This leaves CERP well placed to continue the optimisation of the six operating fields as well as make preparations for the major catalyst for the shares in 2019; exploration of the SWP. Based on our forecasts, CERP is fully funded for planned operations and drilling at SWP represents a potentially transformational event for the company given the estimated prospective resources of 1.3Bboe.

In addition, CERP is the operator of the Innis Trinity field and the current work programme is funded by Predator Oil and Gas (PRD LN) through a farm in agreement. Workovers in the quarter continued to make progress although CO2 injection has not yet commenced with the submission of the Certificate of Environmental Compliance completed in Q4 2018.

Recent share price performance has been soft and while we believe a combination of broad-based equity market volatility and a reduction in WTI oil prices have exacerbated the weakness the progress that management has made operationally and financially was not fairly reflected in the share price performance in 2018. A 67% YoY increase in production is an impressive and significant achievement and we expect continued progress in 2019. Although this was lower than originally anticipated at the start of the year and legacy costs associated with Spain have hampered financial performance we continue to forecast a reduction in the net loss from £5m to £3.4m in 2018 and a return to profit in 2019 demonstrating that the operational improvements are having a meaningful and tangible positive impact on the group financials. We believe that at the current share price CERP’s production potential, exploration upside and capital discipline is simply not reflected and continue to see significant upside potential.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation and 21.4p target price.

[offerman] 09/1/2019 09:53

Will be interesting to see what Leo says in the two or three upcoming videos that will take place during today and the next couple of days no doubt. I wonder if he can elaborate more on the expansion plans as occasionally he does say a bit more that is contained in an RNS.

[offerman] 09/1/2019 09:51

Morning EdCompletely see where you're coming from, makes sense, the only thing I'd like to add to that would be rather than us raise the funds for the smaller deal to start with in Suriname or Columbia why don't we use farmout funds for the first SWP drill and use those funds for the expansion into Suriname or Columbia.