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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Colt Telecom LSE:COLT London Ordinary Share LU0253815640 EUR0.50
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 189.75p 0 05:00:01
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
0.00p 0.00p - - -
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Fixed Line Telecommunications 1,161.37 -17.94 -2.33 1,701.9

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Date Time Title Posts
11/9/201509:55COLT, better times ahead.6,326
11/6/201421:19Colt Telecom Post 3 for 1 share split....1,038
15/6/201114:59Colt Telecom Post 3 for 1 share split....75
15/9/200910:37Is Colt a buy?23

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Colt Telecom (COLT) Top Chat Posts

dickbush: Agreed. The share price was moving up very nicely recently and I'm sure-if the 2nd qtr were to show the result I expected-there was the real possibility that the share price would be at a new high immediately afterwards.
dickbush: From Telecompaper Fidelity makes buy-out offer for Colt Friday 19 June 2015 | 09:04 CET | News Colt's largest shareholder Fidelity Investments has made an offer to take the European carrier private. However, Colt's independent shareholders said the bid of 190 pence per share undervalues the group, and a sale to a third party could achieve a higher price. Colt said the directors' assessment was based on its new business plan, which has been provisionally approved by the board and further details of which will be announced soon. While the independent directors, having been so advised by Barclays, consider the financial terms of the offer not fair to the shareholders of Colt, they also recognised that some shareholders may be interested in accepting the bid. Accordingly the board has made no recommendation to shareholders whether or not to accept the offer. Furthermore Fidelity has stated that it will not sell its shares in Colt before the end of 2016, so the immediate offer to cash-out may appeal to some shareholders. As a result Colt's board said it would convene a meeting of shareholders to consider the offer. Fidelity, which has supported Colt since its creation, said its offer also takes into account Colt's business plans and offer shareholders a premium of 35 percent on the average share price in the past year. In total its offer values Colt at GBP 1.72 billion. It already has the support of holders of 7.8 percent of Colt's shares, in addition to its own shares in the operator.
robwt: Thanks DB & Mirko, really positive bit of news. Highly illiquid stock it is and that alone explains why it trades at peanuts. The manipulators of the stock will be taking a risk playing around with Colt shares if there is truth in the report. The share price has been depressed to a current level that values the company at £1.4 billion. The share price is super cheap, but Colt could not be bought for such a price in this current market. There is a tiny float available and the spread is not high so the shares are not really illiquid, they are not available. However, illiquid stocks can rise up in price extremely quickly if there is any sustained buying pressure. Remember Porsche/Volkswagen That stock rocketed to unbelievable won't happen with Colt, but the share price could rise significantly, double or more because the company is valued so lowly.
robwt: DB..A disaster that goes only one way. Just look at how badly Colt have performed since the 1 for 3 split at 177p. The company is a dog. The Colt share price is good advert for not investing in anything owned by Fidelity. Bhasin should have been fired years ago along with 80% of Colt's board. The Fidelty management are no better. The whole lot of them are all but useless. If the report on May 1st is negative, I think it will be time to get out of these.
robwt: Small float, tiny parcels of shares traded while the euro is going back to it's realistic value are enough to trounce the share price. It shouldn't be a worry because the share price will react the other way as soon as Fidelity indicate they are about to do something remotely positive with Colt. As FIDELITY continue to sit on their hands it is a job to figure out if they ever plan to inject some life into running Colt. A management sort out as a last resort might work. Sorry dealy, but it looks like we all continue to feel the pain.
azizboy: April 22, 2014 5:23 pm Colt profits warning renews sale speculation By Daniel Thomas, Telecoms Correspondent Colt has warned profits this year will be hit by lower prices and customer losses, renewing speculation that the British telecommunications service provider could be for sale. More than a 10th was wiped off the value of shares in the group, which is majority owned by US fund management company Fidelity, following the warning that earnings would be 5-10 per cent lower than most analysts had expected in 2014. There would be an additional restructuring charge in the second half of the year of about €30m, Colt added, following a business-wide restructuring programme that would move the company away from carrier voice trading. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation was €74.1m in the first quarter, from €80.5m in the previous year, which was blamed on lower margins caused by continued customer churn and pricing pressures in its bandwidth products. It said that pressure on margins would continue through the year. The company is close to completing a strategic review of performance and a reorganisation of the business into four areas: network services, IT services, data centre services and voice services. Rakesh Bhasin, chief executive, said: "I believe this structure will provide the focus we need to address challenges in the marketplace. It will also allow us to prioritise investments that are of greatest strategic and commercial value to our group." As part of this process, Colt will withdraw about 85 per cent of its carrier voice trading business over the next few months to pursue more profitable enterprise voice business. This would result in the loss of about €175m of annualised revenue, Colt said, with about half in 2014. But it hoped the move would improve "profit margins over the next few years". Simon Weeden, analyst at Citi, said: "We see the potential for a positive to emerge from the emphasis in the company's statement on its strategic review. This in our view may suggest that controlling shareholder Fidelity's patience is running out and so offers for the company may now be considered." Colt trades at 3.7 times estimated earnings in 2014, according to JPMorgan, or on a 27 times price to earnings ratio but with negative cash flow. JPMorgan added: "We recognise . . . the progress made to reposition Colt towards areas where it can differentiate more on service than price. However, such changes take time and investment. Given that Colt's record of cash generation is poor, we believe further execution will have to be shown before the potential of Colt's plans is reflected in share price performance." Shares in Colt closed 10.2 per cent lower at 130p in London on Tuesday.
robwt: It is not good to keep checking the share price of Colt, in thin trading the share price can be volatile. The small amount floating shares available for sale allow this to cloud the issue, it is man made. The market is a sea of red this morning and the tech sector and many recent IPO's have fallen much further than Colt. Don't forget Colt are at 145p which is not bad considering the market. Look at this way, they may not be a star performer on share price and they are off the radar, but we know that won't change until Fidelity or a big player sell off a chunk of the company. The recent surge showed some pretty big volume trades at up to 156p. In my opinion, that makes Colt look a buy to those looking for value. The company is worth far more than the share price indicates, it will come good...but you pay your money and take your choice.
robwt: Thanks DB...Interesting reading, it is odds on that Fidelity and other big holders of the stock have had approaches about selling, but I have a feeling that they see Colt as something that could be a big future earner. For years they have treated Colt as not for sale, unless the price was going to get them some of the billions they have invested in it. Although it has a good footing in Europe, it is in my opinion much undervalued. Many brokers are of the same opinion, but with such a small float of shares available, it is impossible for any big player to get hold of it. I may be totally wrong, but the only reason I have stuck with this investment is I strongly believed that it would grow and then be bought out for billions. Maybe, we will get a positive upbeat report from this present board that gives this company a re-rating by the market. I can tell you in a heartbeat, that with the 177p three for one split followed by dillution orchestrated by Fidelity. The Colt share price this morning stands at about 38p not counting any losses for inflation or other things. If we counted those the price would be around 30p. Doesn't that seem a bit strange to all, that the share price is less in real terms that it was 10 years ago when Colt was deluged by all sorts of major problems including a winding up order, or are we all living in cloud cuckoo land.
robwt: Anyone have any ideas why the market in Colt shares seems to be well and truly controlled by something or someone who keeps the share price depressed. Telecom investors steer clear of Colt as the volumes are so thin as it may appear that Colt market makers buy and sell daily using their own inventories of stock. The Colt share price is deliberately being kept down for a purpose, keeping the value of the company low. Not only does it cause more small dejected shareholders to sell their shares at low prices but what they are doing is against LSE rules. In my opinion Colt market makers are manipulating the share price ..and share price manipulation is illegal. In general, knowledgeable traders contribute to market efficiency, assuring that share prices properly reflect a company's value and inspiring confidence in the markets holding prices up. There is no market efficiency where Colt is involved. For the reasons above, I got out of part of my Colt holding and bought BT at a lesser share price, this move proved to be a very good decision as BT have outperformed the constantly disappointing Colt. The last time I sold Colt, I watched the trades and for some reason the deal was split up into small parcels. Why does this happen with Colt, it doesn't happen with other shares I have sold. Fidelity should be investigating the strange dealings in Colt shares, in my opinion something appears to be very wrong.
palace andy: 17 June 2010 Colt Downgrade to Underweight (from OW). Recent share price strength despite currency going the wrong way Carl Murdock-Smith (44-20) 7155 6225 (AC) Paul Howard (44-20) 7155 6129 Colt (Underweight) Company Data Price (p) 137 Date Of Price 15 Jun 10 Price Target (p) 112 Price Target End Date 31 Dec 10 52-week Range (p) 144 - 98 Mkt Cap (Str bn) 1.22 Shares O/S (mn) 892 COLT Telecom Group S.A. (COLT.L;COLT LN) 2009A 2010E (New) 2010E (Old) 2011E (New) 2011E (Old) Adj. EPS FY (EUR) 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.14 Revenue FY (EUR mn) 1,623 1,632 1,621 1,646 1,631 Adj EBITDA FY (EUR mn) 319 324 329 332 346 OpFCF FY (EUR mn) 102 63 70 61 77 EV/Revenue FY 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 EV/EBITDA FY 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 EV/OpFCF FY 9.2 14.8 13.3 14.4 11.0 Adj P/E FY 18.0 14.7 13.7 13.5 11.5 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Adj. EPS removes tax credit and exceptionals. * Cutting forecasts on forex moves. We are reducing our 2010E EBITDA and OpFCF forecasts by 2% and 9%, respectively (now 2% and 30% below consensus, source: company) due to recent currency movements. Colt is a geared play on the euro against sterling, with profitable euro operations and considerable sterling central costs. Around 20% of revenue is generated in the UK, but this is among Colt's lowest margin operations. As such, recent sterling strength increases reported revenue (in EUR), but reduces EBITDA, EPS and OpFCF. A key element of the investment case for business-focused telecoms operators is the growth of cash flow, which we believe will suffer as a result when Colt reports its H1 results in July. * Recent outperformance. Colt's share price has increased 13% over the last month versus a 1% decrease in the FTSE 250, 3% increase in the European telecoms sector (in sterling), and 9% increase at peer CandW Worldwide. With 2010E net cash of EUR302m (28p p/s), Colt's share price should prove more stable than the market. Supportive of our strategist's view, we believe that there are more attractive investments in the sector, offering higher beta exposure. * Valuation. Colt now trades at 2010E multiples of 2.9x EV/EBITDA (3.6x before tax assets) and 14.7x P/E (altnet European sector on 4.9x and 11.6x). However, due to its high capex (16% of sales), Colt is not very cash generative and as such trades on EV/OpFCF of 14.8x (sector on 9.0x). Colt's closest peer is CandW Worldwide, trading on 3.4x EV/EBITDA, 11.3x P/E and 8.1x EV/OpFCF (again adj. EV for tax assets). However, CandW Worldwide has a much more attractive strategic position (with greater geographical focus giving it better economies of scale) and better cash flow trajectory (OpFCF 2010-13E CAGR +22% vs +10% at Colt). * We also today introduce a Dec-10 SoTP price target of 112p based on DCF analysis, 18% below Colt's current share price. * Downgrade to Underweight. Given our concerns regarding cash flow momentum due to currency headwinds, in addition to the ongoing trend of voice decline offsetting managed services and data growth, we downgrade the stock to Underweight. Currency headwinds Colt remains a geared play on the euro against sterling, with mostly euro operations and considerable sterling central costs. As such, the euro weakening 3% against sterling over the last month and 9% over the last three months to 1.20 EUR/Str today is a headwind to Colt's valuation and share price in sterling terms. Colt has previously disclosed to what extent currency movement has impacted revenue, EBITDA, and FCF. Using these prior disclosures and assuming broadly constant currency exposure over time, we derive the below assumptions. Table 1: Currency impact on Colt's financials 1H08 2H08 1H09 2H09 1H10E (new) 1H10E (old) EUR/Str exchange rate 1.29 1.23 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.12 YoY currency change -13% -15% -13% -8% 3% 0% Revenue YoY impact (EURm) (20.5) (24.7) (20.1) (11.7) 4.5 0.3 EBITDA YoY impact (EURm) 4.9 6.3 3.7 2.9 (1.0) (0.1) FCF YoY impact (EURm) 7.2 9.9 8.8 3.7 (1.7) (0.1) (cont'd) 2H10E (new) 2H10E (old) FY10E (new) FY10E (old) 1.20 1.10 1.18 1.11 7% -2% 5% -1% 10.3 (3.3) 14.7 (3.0) (2.4) 0.8 (3.4) 0.7 (3.8) 1.2 (5.5) 1.1 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note "old" forecasts relate to 3 March 2010, being the last date we changed estimates. As can be seen above, since we last updated our forecasts, currency movement will have boosted our FY10E revenue forecast by EUR17.7m (EUR14.7m + EUR3.0m) or 1%, due to UK-based sterling revenues. However, due to the low margins on these revenues, in addition to considerable sterling central costs, currency movement will have created a EUR4.1m or 1% headwind to EBITDA and EUR6.6m or 9% to FCF. Data centre acquisition really quasi-capex We also update our forecasts today for Colt's EUR57m acquisition in May of the freehold on its existing 33MW data centre just outside London. The acquisition gives Colt full ownership of both its existing data centre and adjoining building space, increasing space at the site from 4,500 sq.m. to in excess of 10,500 sq.m. This extra capacity will support further growth in Colt's data centre revenues, particularly in managed services. As the acquisition is of property, rather than of a business, we would be inclined to view it as quasi-capex rather than as an acquisition, data centre capex historically having been lumpy in nature. However, we understand that the expense will be reported separate from capex. Valuation and share price performance Colt's share price has increased 13% over the last month and 1% over the last three months. This compares to the FTSE 250 which has declined -1% and -0% respectively and the European telecoms sector that has increased 3% over the last month (in sterling terms) but declined -12% over the last three months. Colt's net cash position should make its share price more stable, thus outperforming in a downward market. However, we are concerned that recent share price strength has not reflected currency movements acting as a headwind to Colt. For 2010E, Colt now trades on 2.9x EV/EBITDA (or 3.6x before tax assets), looking attractive versus the altnet European telecoms sector on 4.9x. However, given its capex levels, Colt struggles to generate meaningful cash flow. As such Colt's EV/OpFCF is 14.8x (18.3x not adj. EV for tax assets) versus the sector on 9.0x. If we were also to include Colt's data centre freehold acquisition within capex, Colt's OpFCF this year becomes nominal, making any EV/OpFCF multiple meaningless. We also today introduce a Dec-10 SoTP price target of 112p (18% downside to current share price). This price target is derived from a DCF-based analysis, shown below. Given Colt's currently weak cash flow characteristics and considerable tax assets. we believe this to be the most appropriate valuation methodology. Aware of the flaws of DCF-based price targets, we also include a sensitivity analysis with regard to our WACC (11%, high due to sub-optimal gearing due to cash pile) and terminal growth (0%) assumptions. Risks to our Underweight view would include: Colt successfully reducing capex intensity without impairing profitability, thus boosting cash flows; Colt moving to a more efficient capital structure over time, maybe including some debt; Colt's sunk capex in data centre investments and managed services supporting greater growth than we currently forecast; business telecoms proving more cyclical than we currently believe and Colt benefiting from a late cyclical increase in profitable contracts; sterling weakening versus the euro. Table 2: Sum-of-the-parts valuation of Colt EURm per share (p) DCF valuation of fully-taxed operations (EURm) 687 64 Tax asset (EURm) 219 20 Pension deficit (EURm) (6) (1) EV (EURm) 900 84 Net cash Dec-10 (EURm) 302 28 Market Cap (EURm) 1,202 112 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Model of tax asset valuation available on request. Table 3: DCF of Colt's operations (on a fully taxed basis) y/e Dec (EURm) FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E TV Revenue 1,632 1,646 1,669 1,684 1,697 1,711 EBITDA 324 332 345 355 363 371 EBITDA margin % 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 22% Capex (261) (272) (275) (269) (263) (257) Operating FCF 63 61 70 86 100 115 1,157 Tax (16) (16) (18) (22) (26) (30) (300) Taxed FCF 47 45 52 64 74 85 857 Discount Factor 0.901 0.812 0.731 0.659 0.593 0.535 Discounted Cashflow 41 42 47 49 50 458 EV 687 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. WACC 11%, terminal growth 0%, tax rate 26%. Table 4: Valuation sensitivity analysis - Price target at differing assumptions (p) WACC 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% Terminal growth -1.0% 115 108 103 0.0% 120 112 106 1.0% 126 117 110 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Estimate changes Mostly reflecting our updated currency assumptions going forward, we increase our revenue forecast by 1% in both 2010E and 2011E. We continue to forecast the underlying trend of increasing managed services (+16% 2010E, +13% 2011E) and data (+5%, +3%), offset by voice decline (-8%, -5%). However, due to the negative margin of Colt's sterling denominated activities given its central costs, we decrease EBITDA by -2% in 2010E and -4% in 2011E. We therefore decrease our reported EPS estimates by -4% in 2010E and -10% in 2011E. Due to recent capex projects and data centre investments being more UK focused than the mix of existing operations, OpFCF is reduced by -9% in 2010E and -21% in 2011E, although the extent of these movements in part reflects Colt's small cash flow margins in the first place. Following these changes, our 2010E forecasts are now 1% above consensus (source: company) at revenue, but 2% below at EBITDA and 30% below at OpFCF. Table 5: New financial forecasts EUR million [Table removed, please see pdf for all tables and charts] Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. ^ Adjusted EPS removes exceptionals and tax asset recognition. * Debatable whether the EUR57m plus transaction costs (JPMe EUR60m total) data centre freehold acquisition should be treated within capex or not. We show both for clarity. [Image Removed] Valuation Methodology and Risks Colt (Underweight; Price Target 112p) Valuation Methodology We introduce a Dec-10 SoTP price target of 112p (18% downside to current share price). This price target is derived from a DCF-based analysis,. Aware of the flaws of DCF-based price targets, we also include a sensitivity analysis with regard to our WACC (11%, high due to sub-optimal gearing due to cash pile) and terminal growth (0%) assumptions. Risks to Our View Risks to our Underweight view would include: Colt successfully reducing capex intensity without impairing profitability, thus boosting cash flows; Colt moving to a more efficient capital structure over time, maybe including some debt; Colt's sunk capex in data centre investments and managed services supporting greater growth than we currently forecast; business telecoms proving more cyclical than we currently believe and Colt benefiting from a late cyclical increase in profitable contracts; sterling weakening versus the euro. [Table removed, please see pdf for all tables and charts]
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