Colliers Intl Share Discussion Threads

[loverat] 22/1/2012 06:42

I said some time ago that I read on another reputable forum (O.K it was LSE) that there was a massive short on this company (Dec 2011). Not sure about that or how to check but I remember reading there was alot of shorting of DTZ and from the comments on that thread it looks like Simon Cawkwell was a participant. I wonder if this was being shorted, whether he might have been involved. When much of that DTZ stuff was going on I reckon shorting this was a pretty sure way of making money.

71 trades in total last week which is probably around 4/5 times the usual and some big trades. Simply speculation but I wonder if some of those trades were shorters closing. Who knows.

[loverat] 20/1/2012 18:29

This is all highly fascinating.

I honestly think these are a very good gamble at these levels. Won't be the first company that has been trashed to hell and emerged from the ashes.

Look at HMV today. They have had numerous warnings already. This one has just not grown in the last few years and in the last few months has been affected by the chaos around it.

If anything negative happens here (stitch up of shareholders which I think is the biggest risk) these folks will never recover their reputations. I am sure they will be trashed completely on the internet and the press.

[kfp] 20/1/2012 16:24

scburbs
That might be the reason for share price ,could still be good news or bad !

[scburbs] 20/1/2012 16:11

Interesting to see that there is a meeting between Colliers and First Service on Monday.

"Colliers' current chief executive, ex-Jones Lang LaSalle director Tony Horrell, has been on the offensive, trying to boost the company's headcount by hiring a raft of big names from across the industry over recent months.

On Monday he is due to meet with Douglas Frye, president and chief executive of FirstService, who is set to reveal plans for the business."

[kfp] 20/1/2012 16:04

Trading update 13th January 2011,might be one on Monday ?

[kfp] 20/1/2012 15:44

Could be the company with 29% about to bid a couple of pence for the 71% they dont hold.With 29% they would have to bid for the whole company.
Might just be undervalued, John Ritblat a shrewd cookie he would be buying if there was something afoot.

[mathisvale] 20/1/2012 13:23

I am also intrigued by the number of relatively high volume trades recently. There have been between 2m and 8m trades for every day for the last 6 trading days. This is for a company that regularly had zero trades day after day.

As the price has risen slightly there is a keen buyer on the scene. It looks ike Aviva is the seller, but who is the buyer. With c. £60m of turnover COL could appear attractive at a market cap at less than £2m

[loverat] 17/1/2012 15:44

Some pretty hefty trades here today and yesterday. Not seen volume in such size for yonks.

[loverat] 17/1/2012 06:19

Well, lets just see how things pan out. I don't rule out that you are right regarding H2 - just that an announcement should have been made and therefore a major management credibility issue if you are correct.

The 'no reason for the fall' remark still stands. Some companies may have released such a statement in these circumstances - particularly during the period you mention. But as far as I know there is no obligation and these announcements are usually made during periods of very heavy falls over very short periods (i.e daily or over a few days)rather than longer periods.

Anyway - good luck. As you say, several scenarios could play out here - not all of them negative and a reasonable gamble at these levels.

[scburbs] 16/1/2012 22:31

Loverat,

Are you being serious? I am talking about the fall from 5+p following the DTZ announcement when it "gradually" lost over 60% in a month! My post was largely tongue in cheek in response to your odd comments about "relatively" gradual falls so I am glad you found it laughable!

Either way it shouldn't be too long to wait. My money (from a betting perspective - unfortunately not from an investment perspective) is on an H2 loss, but I have no inside track on their performance it is just the most likely outcome given market conditions and the recruitment costs. I will continue to hold out hopes of First Service taking this out at a reasonable level before it is run into the ground or First Service agreeing to provide long term funding on generous terms to give it breathing space to work on the London expansion plans.

Please don't bandy around silly comments about deliberately misleading.

[loverat] 16/1/2012 22:09

LOL

Don't duck the question.

Please say when during the past year the company should have come out with 'we know no reason for the fall'

January, April, August, October or December. Please tell us.

Your post is laughable.

[scburbs] 16/1/2012 22:05

LOL! Can you have a gradual 90+% fall over 1 year? I am going to have to disagree with you on the gradual fall piece, even if I was too generously interpret your use of the word "relatively"! The fall after the DTZ "no value" sale has been pretty cliff like, although to be fair it has been relatively stable since it hit 1p!

[loverat] 16/1/2012 18:39

Scburbs

By the way - there was no obligation to issue a news release on the fall in share price as it was relatively gradual. I think you are aware of that.

Companies usually only issue statements where there are huge sudden falls. This has not happened here. There was one day back in November
where this fell but perhaps was not considered relatively unusual for AIM.

A risky share but I hope you are not trying to deliberately mislead people here.

[loverat] 16/1/2012 18:13

These guys would have issued an RNS if trading was worse etc.

It is inconceivable to come to any other conclusion than trading was in line. Their reputations are on the line here. If they have done badly in H2 then an RNS would have been issued before.

Simple as that.

[scburbs] 16/1/2012 17:57

Last three Jan trading statements were 16/21/13 Jan so we should be finally due some news soon.

It is difficult to predict as if trading is much worse than expected then they should have released a statement sooner and if it isn't then they should have issued a no reason for the share price falling statement!

My money is on a loss making H2, but will be interested to here what they have to say on stemming and funding those losses. If I had a hat then I might consider a nibble if they have made a bottom line profit in H2 (EBIDTA positive does not count).

[mathisvale] 16/1/2012 17:53

6% of COL's shares traded today.

Someone thinks that they are worth buying at this 'Armageddon' price. If COL were ever to recover then you are looking at a 20-fold increase in the sp, ie a typical death or glory case. Definitely worth a small punt

[loverat] 12/1/2012 18:46

Well, on the train back from the smoke today I started wondering about this.

Sometime back I read a post where it was cynically suggested the new CEO is driving this company in to admin so First Service could pick off the bits it wants and discard the unwanted bits.

How cynical AIM investors have become on here. The mere thought is unthinkable.

The share price is in the gutter but I have supreme faith in the CEO to deliver.

[loverat] 11/1/2012 05:52

BTW - this was the previous Hardman and Co note a month before the DTZ affect took hold. October 2011 when the shares were about 7p. Stating that without exceptional costs in 2010 financial performance should be much improved going forward.



Not for widows and orphans but certainly priced as a wipe out stock. So short term I would suggest several scenarios going through the minds of shareholders/observers:

1) The company soon announces trading in line up to Dec 2011 and in negotiation with bankers for further headroom to support its activities. Any forward looking statement would be interesting. Investors seeing this as a sign that all is not so bad, pile in and we see a reversal of sorts with the share price

2) The company announces - "oh dear - we seem to have hired too many staff and paid them too well and we are seeking clarification of our financial status".
Little unlikely IMO - as I say you normally get some indication of problems and in any event the bankers are likely to be supportive.

3) Some sort of corporate activity in the coming weeks/months. The fact First Service holds 29% is interesting. I think a DTZ stitch up is unlikely and there is credibility at stake. Still, we must always be open to the possibility of small shareholders being stitched up in one way or another as we have seen regularly recently. However, if that happens the directors here will go down in history as contenders for destroying so much shareholder value in one of the shortest periods of time.

Interesting times ahead.

[loverat] 10/1/2012 15:09

I suppose the other thing to remember is that note was put out just 2 months ago when the shares were being offered at three times today's price.

A company valued at just over a million quid when it takes 60 million per year.

Might be worth a gamble here.

[loverat] 10/1/2012 14:59

Cheers scburbs

Certainly an interesting one at these levels. I was comparing the charts of DTZ and COL when the big fall took place over there. Very similar falls so the DTZ affect seems to have spooked folks here.

The note also perhaps goes some way to explaining the recruitment and expansion programme here and the role and possible motives of First Service. As you say, a risky one. However, I have seldom seen companies go down the pan without the customary three profit warnings or prior announcements of funding problems. Corporate governance and stitching up shareholders in another way is another consideration but on the face of it, the potential rewards may outweigh the risks as you say.

[scburbs] 10/1/2012 14:22

Thanks Loverat,

Superficially its a reasonable note. However, if Hardman's had spotted the typo in DTZ's results RNS then they would have realised that net assets were £43.8m not minus £43.8m (before goodwill adjustment).

It is still true that COL's balance sheet is stronger than DTZ, but the gap is less than implied. The much better current asset/liability mix is a key advantage for COL.

The note is rather unbalanced on geographic spread. DTZ has the disadvantage of Eurozone exposure, but the advantage of Asian exposure. These probably balance each other out and in general the wide geographic spread would be viewed as advantageous compared to COL's UK centric focus (although Colliers is helped by the international network linkage).

At less than 1p there is definitely more percentage upside than downside, but the risk of 100% downside is not insignificant.

[loverat] 10/1/2012 13:48

Don't recall seeing this broker note posted here.

From November 2011. Quite interesting as it highlights similarities but supposedly key differences between this and DTZ.

Worth a read.

Some people are cynical about the strategy of COL and the motives of First Service. Be interested in any views.

[loverat] 10/1/2012 12:46

While the share price declines further here are a few recent bits of news from their website.


Colliers International latest property news

Colliers recruits new Licensed & Leisure Director

09.01.2012

Colliers International is pleased to announce the appointment of Sean Ludden as a new Director in its Licensed & Leisure team.

Sean joins Colliers from a major competitor after working for most of 2010 in hotel valuation where he undertook valuations of high value single assets and large hotel portfolios across the UK and in Spain, France, Sweden and Holland.

He began his valuation career in 2002 in central London working for a national firm of licensed and leisure agents and valuers between 2002 and 2010, primarily undertaking valuations for secured lending across much of the licensed and leisure sector including that of hotels, pubs, restaurants and residential/specialist care homes.

Gareth Jones, Chief Operating Officer at Colliers International commented: "We are delighted to welcome Sean to our Licensed & Leisure team.

"He brings a wealth of valuation experience across the licensed and leisure sector with particular expertise in the valuation of public houses and restaurants."

Sean added: "I am excited to be joining Colliers International at what is a busy time for the sector. 2012 will be a very interesting for the leisure industry, and I look forward to working with the Colliers team."

Sean's recruitment continues Colliers' long-term strategy of senior-level appointments and follows the appointment of James Shorthouse as Head of the Licensed & Leisure team.

Colliers International latest property news



Retailers remain resilient. But can it be sustained?

06.01.2012

Latest statistics from Colliers International show the company achieved a 99% collection rate within seven days this quarter, across their entire management portfolio.

Mark Jarrett, Head of Professional Services at Colliers International commented:

"Despite a challenging climate, retailers have begun to publish some encouraging trading figures, and the outcome for rent collections has also been very good, with nearly all payments received within seven working days. The question now is whether this will be sustained throughout the year.

"There is no doubt that this has been one of the toughest quarters in the last three years and there has been a noticeable delay in tenants paying rent on the due date, an increase in requests for payment concessions; and an increase in insolvencies."

[menthol] 10/1/2012 12:30

Wakeland,
Thanks, I mis-read that in the results. Down again I see by 9% to 1p on the offer. Amazing.

[wakeland] 09/1/2012 13:17

The bank loan runs to Sept 2012 and not March, debt at last half yearly report of £13M, if they can break even for H2 I'd have thought they could come to an agreement with the banks for an extension. The big worry is the way the price has collapsed with not so much as a blink from the Co. ,can these directors be trusted? that's the question.