Colefax Share Discussion Threads

[chester] 11/1/2007 08:40

Bought into this yesterday. What a chart. Is nearly doubled in the last 12 months and its only correction worth talking about was 10% back in April/May 2006.

Looks great.

[cockneyrebel] 10/1/2007 12:41

Okay, looks like everyone is bored out of their heads here - no posts for 3 months - that's a great sign imo.

The company has said trading is good, as have Walker Greenbank, a similar co - wallpaper's back in fashion.


Expected to do 18p eps this year, earnings growth forecast at around 10% while earnings were up 33% this year. Company has bought back half a million shares since the year end results, enhancing eps further.

Chart looks set for a breakout too.

2% yield nearly. Good cash generation for more buybacks.


Results are on 25th Jan or there abouts and I notice the mm's took 20K on the chin yesterday so either a buyer around or they want the stock ahead of the results imo, or the company is taking all the sells for buy backs as there have been lots of sells taken on the chin recently.

Looks interesting to me - perhaps not as exciting as WGB but still potentially undervalued imo

imo dyor.

CR

[jeff h] 02/8/2006 23:59

Have to confess to having sold out over the last few days.

The Annual Report mentions the hedging ends at the end of October then

'...if there is no recovery or even further deterioration then our gross margins will come under pressure in the second half of the current financial year'

With the £ at £1 = $1.88 then that equates to about £1m off profits in a
full year.

Perhaps I'm too quick selling but I doubled my money in a year....and got 50%
CGT Taper, so will settle for that.

[ntv] 26/7/2006 19:44

thanx jeff

[jeff h] 24/7/2006 18:59

Peel Hunt has upped its forecast a little though this could well be conservative.

Y/E 30/4/07 Pre Tax £4.5m EPS 18.3p Div 4p

...think they've got 4/08 down as £5m pre-tax.

I reckon they should easily make £5m this year assuming:-

- no loss on disposal of fixed assets = £177k in 06 a £12k credit in 05.

- interest (as you say NTV) falling and turning to receivable rather than payable. PH are forecasting y/e net cash of £2m+

- continuing favourable market conditions.

....with IR's here and the US not forecast to increase for the next few months at least then there's no reason to think trading will suddenly worsen.

PH reckons hedging for the current year is in place at $1.74 until October
with no effect on the rest of the year...FD Rob Barker usually writes an excellent informative piece in the Annual Report which will be received shortly so will learn more then.

[ntv] 20/7/2006 09:25

virtually no pension liability either which is good news

[ntv] 20/7/2006 09:07

aacquisitions not so keen on that idea i would prefer buy backs and divi increases
plenty of scope within existing business to increase profits
tax rate may increase next yr?
interest payment should fall further?
cash generation should be strong again?

[jeff h] 20/7/2006 08:11

Yes NTV and they lump in the one off £177k loss on disposal of Fixed Assets as
part of the reported profit of £4.09m....so the 'normalised' profits then
are really close to £4.3m.. and they believe there will be continued growth
in 2006.

The debt has almost been cleared so acquisitions could well be on the cards.

[ntv] 20/7/2006 07:30

wicked trading results

[ntv] 05/7/2006 08:31

have been buying a few lately ,better late than never i hope

[jeff h] 04/7/2006 18:49

Persistent small buying recently and now today someone pays over the
Offer for 10k.

Results due out July 20, forecast of £4m pre tax

[jeff h] 25/4/2006 08:24

One strong quarters sales and forecasts are profit raised by at
least 20%!

[jeff h] 21/7/2005 08:40

cheers NTV

[ntv] 21/7/2005 07:41

good call jeff missed this one but will put it on the monitor

[jeff h] 20/7/2005 19:39

Up 10p today with US dollar benefits yet to come.

As you not replied I'll take it that you accept you got
it wrong ydderf.

[jeff h] 20/7/2005 15:59

.....that's the Interims you're quoting from...not today's Finals

[jeff h] 20/7/2005 15:59

.....that's the Interims you're quoting from...not today's Finals

[ydderf] 20/7/2005 15:39

"I believe that the trading environment in the US, our most important market,
will remain favourable for the remainder of the year. In contrast, trading in
Europe and the UK could become more difficult. The most significant factor
affecting the Group's results is the continuing weakness of the US dollar and
its impact on our ability to make improvements to profitability."

[jeff h] 20/7/2005 15:14

Why do you say the outlook is 'very poor' ydderf?

Sales are rising and once the strengthening $ benefits work
through so will margins.

I'd be interested to hear why you come to a different conclusion

[ydderf] 20/7/2005 12:21

very poor outlook Jeff H......will be cheaper before they are much dearer imho

[jeff h] 20/7/2005 08:34

EPS of 13.1p....benefits of $ appreciation and full year effects of buy
backs still to come.

Could only snaffle a couple of small purchases on opening...very happy
to have bought.

[jeff h] 08/7/2005 10:41

I can't believe nobody is interested in this share.

It's been suffering with the $ translation against the £.....
that seems to have come to an end, but even without the rising $
boost the shares are on a Forecast P/E of less than 8 and pay a
decent dividend.

Cash flow has always been good and there is very little debt.

The Management have a big stake....a two way bet on a trading
recovery or corporate action is the way I see it.

I been buying at 92-93p.....results and more imporatntly outlook
due soon.

[lom2] 21/4/2004 14:21

corporate action shortly