Coffeeheaven Share Discussion Threads

[carwhite] 31/1/2010 20:11

No we have even dragged the child out to plaY hello JonC

[jonc] 31/1/2010 10:10

lol.

Pleasant as ever.

Another bottle of read for carwhite please.

[mryesyes] 30/1/2010 14:45

Competition growing fast is only because it is becoming profitable

[coffee911] 29/1/2010 23:08

Hee, hee. Carwhite sold out at 10p and is feeling a bit sad. The poor dear:-

[carwhite] 29/1/2010 22:00

cool runnings - 29 Jan'10 - 19:30 - 46 of 47

No wonder you have a large holding you probably believed your own ramping last year.

I think around 24p is all that's on the table and I would not even pay that for a company that's not even making a profit and in a zone where the competition is growing fast.

[mryesyes] 29/1/2010 20:21

sounds as if they are already talking about a possible extension beyond feb 9, what is the 1a sectio they mention, is that the one saying that 75% but under 90% allows them to delist COH?
I imagine even a 1p increase would win a lot over, just a token gesture to the no lobby
No talk of final offer, WTB are getting this
Current year may be showing a profit, last year was only a tiny loss compared to turnover

[cool runnings] 29/1/2010 19:30

We will get more than 24p, watch this space! I have a very significant holding and have refused to accept!

[4screws] 29/1/2010 18:47

so any ideas, will it saty or will it go...or will whitbread have to raise the offer if by the 9th of Feb they do have have enough acceptances...

I f I have msread this, or misunderstpood, then someone put me right as I did not support the motion and want to continue to hold as I think whitbread at current levels would be getting this at a steal.

[mryesyes] 28/1/2010 14:10

I submit that COH is integral to WTB's strategy and the fact that Starbucks etc are not competing for it has made them offer too low a price but they aint walking, its their plan that its theirs full stop IMHO

[mryesyes] 28/1/2010 14:07

But all the evidence (inc offer not unconditional yet with 1 day to go) points to WTB not getting enough acceptancies at 24p
So most holders are sitting on their hands, some are selling in the market, but if you look at the 8.3 disclosures from the institutions while they sell at 23.5 or 24.25 they simultaneously take huge long positions, on 2% or 3.65% of the entire company.
The buy price today is up to 24.25

[carwhite] 28/1/2010 12:32

I THINK YOUR ALL TALKING AROUND IN CIRCLES, YOU AINT GONNA GET MUCH MORE THAN AROUND 24P OR LESS IF YOU DITHER.

[coffee911] 28/1/2010 09:04

mryesyes, I guess the main point it that there is no guarantees!
But, I don't think WTB can walk before the offer expires. If everyone accepted the offer they would have to cough up. My guess is: A 30p offer by late next week.

[mryesyes] 27/1/2010 23:37

Just think for a minute.
If it is announced "WTB only received 40% acceptance of their offer for COH, sources say WTB are considering their position"
IMHO result will be rise in COH price. 40% of the stock is stuck at the registrars and another chunk is with the MM's.
Say the price rose to 31p. Then WTB could not assume the consent of those who had responded to their offer, since that was at a 20% premium to the then share price of 19p, but now unless they offer 37p they are no longer offering the same premium.
Interesting............

[mryesyes] 27/1/2010 23:07

If I needed the cash pronto then I should sell in the open market. Are you sure, with genuine knowledge, that if you accept their offer you "still get any increased offer that comes along" (from them)
My experience, over umpteen such scenarios, is that this offer terms are specific, allowing only for an extension of the period of the offer.
They can return your cert, they can extend the period @ 24p, or the shares can go into a period, like Cadburys did, where not enough holders accept an offer and the market awaits a higher offer.
IMHO if WTB wanted to walk they would have done so by now. My guess is they either extend the offer or put out soundings that they will come back with a better price and the whole thing starts over again.
If WTB were walking away there is no way the share price could be held at 24p by the MM's, they must know IMHO that 24p aint going to get COH now but WTB will up the ante and they can unload all the shares they are holding from recent sales
for no less than 24p or the share price would be slashed
If another party was interested, they would probably have emerged already

[carwhite] 27/1/2010 21:29

coffee911 - 27 Jan'10 - 17:26 - 37 of 37

Have you not ramped this share enough in the past?

[coffee911] 27/1/2010 17:26

myesyes, Apologies, the only way of protecting yourself from a withdrawn offer is to sell before Monday. You can accept their offer, but they can still withdraw theirs. Sounds unfair! Sell before Monday and you lose the chance of an increased offer. If you accept the 24p offer, you still get any increased offer that comes along... I'm not sure if this applies to a higher bid by another party.

I don't see any logic in accepting their offer, unless you need the cash pronto.

[carwhite] 27/1/2010 17:20

Somehow I think you may be scratching for worms. As I understand it the deal will go through,. much to the relief of the COH board, as its a life line.

However assuming it does not, ask yourselves where does this leave COH? Well that's easy back to square one and undercapitalised.

THIS MEANS YET AGAIN BACK TO THE SHAREHOLDERS FOR MORE CASH AND DOWN THE share price GOES.

[mryesyes] 27/1/2010 17:11

very intersting, thank you and i'm taking your advice
i saw under the 8.3 regs on advfn long positions, and a sell at 24.5 by deutsch bank
all the evidence points to it, on the balance of probailities, to it being a bad move to accept and send off a share cert.....
rather than them withdrawing the offer(they return your shares to you), i suspect the only risk comes in them gaining control (above 75% via this offer but under 90% where it is mandatory for remaing shareholders to accept and be paid, in this particular situation) whereupon in theory they could delist COH and merge its assets in with Whitbread, however I'll take that risk
In order to offer more they would have to start from scratch, returning the certs for now, and in that circumstance in the interim the open market price might IMHO shoot up aswell as plummet (if Whitbread announced it had decided to abandon)

[coffee911] 27/1/2010 16:21

mryesyes, apologies, but it did sound very unusual for the registrar to indicate the level of acceptances, but I do accept you had this conversation. There is no logical reason to accept the offer, unless you think Whitbread will withdraw the offer. A 20% increase in price is very small beer, so I very much doubt they with withdraw and not make a higher offer.

When/if the bid goes unconditional, you stil have 14 days to accept the offer, so it doesn't make any sense to accept, unless you want to protect the downside of a withdrawn offer. At this point they have guarantees on 19% and possibly another 10% coming on Friday. I'm not expecting the institutions to accept, especially Blackrock, UBS, etc, etc, who have recently topped up at under 24p.

[carwhite] 27/1/2010 16:13

Coffee911 petty as ever ok 9 years. Hubby bought them, still does not alter the fact.

We sold 350000 shares!

You don't belittle anyone only yourself coffee911.

[mryesyes] 27/1/2010 14:53

So what is the consensus, send in your cert or keep hold of it? Bearing in mind that if they do not get enough acceptancies the registrars send the cert back to you after months, denying you the right to sell it on the open market in the meantime.
The guy at the registrars I spoke to should not have behaved as he did,being so informal with a private shareholder but you could tell from what he said about the 30% level and the offer being extended possibility or the walking away possibility.
I got the distinct impression that if I sent mine in it would be more work for him having to hold onto it and send it back possibly, not the sort of attitude of someone who was issuing cheques "so get it in by Friday or you are too late"!!
You are saying WTB have no shares so if you are right the poor old MM's are lumbered with a month of 99% selling at over 23.5(buy price 24.25 no takers)
and the price is going to plummet, surely the MM's would have lowered the selling price to protect themselves.
Bemused. Then there are the long Rule 8.3 positions. And this chap who is a major holder but it is only a small bit of his portfolio, is he selling to Whitbread or holding out?