Cmr Fuel Cells Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 22/2/2008 17:24

Cash burn:

31/12/07 30/06/07 31/12/06 30/06/06 31/12/05
Cash(£m) 8.437 9.545 10.587 11.533 12.640
Burn 1.108 1.042 0.946 1.107

Quite encouraging, really, a decent-sized straw.

[jonwig] 22/2/2008 10:37

Some new information in the results, also some questions raised.
Will try to make the AGM, if it's at Harston.

[jonwig] 12/2/2008 19:47

More about the Tokyo demo:

[jonwig] 05/2/2008 08:27

Demonstrator Development of PDA and Laptop computer fuel cell demonstration systems:



It's 27 - 29 Feb, Tokyo. We seem to be the only listed UK company there:

[jonwig] 18/1/2008 16:35

Will be worth looking out for, t0pg - he had no options outstanding, though.
The 852,273 shares is still correct, I think.

[t0pgrader] 18/1/2008 16:26

Wonder whether G Crawford will be holding on to his shares

[jonwig] 18/1/2008 15:43

Actually, one AIM -listed fuel cell company is in volume production: IdaTech [IDA]. Trading statement today.
In a better market, I'd have bought some.

[elgordo] 18/1/2008 13:09

Interview with CEO, John Halfpenny, published this Wednesday -



Rather more of a puff for him rather than the company.

2010 date given for potential volume production of fuel cells (by anyone, not necessarily CMF). Since CMF is projecting cash to be sufficient through end-2009, suggests the need for upfront payments from OEMs, or additional fundraising, in the next 18 months or so...

[jonwig] 18/1/2008 09:33

Thanks for those, ElG ... I haven't looked at their website for a long time.

It seems as though some of their JVs are having decent inputs into the products (eg. screen printing: Xaar), and I suspect (only a quick look today) that their biggest obstacle is in the area of suitable catalysts.

It's also difficult to tell the difference between what they've actually achieved, and what their milestones/targets are.

I missed the AGM last year, but will make a big effort to get to this year's.

[elgordo] 17/1/2008 20:36

In view of the radio silence since the half yearly report, and with the finals due in a few weeks, I thought I'd have a look on the web for any evidence of on-going activity. At least to prove their continued existence, I found a couple of presentations -

MEA Manufacturing Symposium, Ohio, August 21-23 2007



Fuel Cell Seminar and Exposition, Texas, October 15-19 2007



As a non-scientist or engineer, I have no clue whether there is any good, bad, or indifferent information to be gleaned from these, but would be delighted if anyone else is able to provide any informed comment.

[elgordo] 20/12/2007 21:51

With thanks to biobuyer on iii, video and slides from John Halfpenny's presentation at HEAT07 on 4 December at:



Not that he says anything about CMF itself. But they were reported elsewhere (paragraph 4 in the link below) to be "planning to have something ready to manufacture by 2010".

[jonwig] 19/11/2007 11:11

Dead cat bounce??
The significan thing is that somebody has paid nearly £20,000 for a slice of CMF.
And the price is up today, too.
Whether the two recorded trades are really sells, I wouldn't know.

[cher price] 18/11/2007 17:21

Or is it a dead cat bounce? Hope not!

[jonwig] 16/11/2007 14:55

A 50,000 buy @ 39p (quote: 37-39) today is a turn up for us ... Santa lives?

[jonwig] 12/11/2007 18:48

Cher - the share price was ~100p end-June. 47p was cash per share in the accounts.

There seems to have been some two-way trade after the fall, unless the reporting is adrift. Still no wiser as to why it got savaged at 10am.

[cher price] 12/11/2007 18:32

jonwig: "47p/sh at end-June"

Wasn't it over 100p at end of June?

I agree this drop - 50% drop in 3 months - warrants a statement from the company.

[jonwig] 12/11/2007 12:41

ElG,

the cash at end-Dec was £10.3m, £9.545m at end-June.
So that's £2.08m/yr, or 4.6 years left.

47p/sh at end-June, so expect 37p/sh at end-Dec.
Burn is probably increasing if things are going to plan, but the JV partners should be joining in, so maybe not a net increase.

We might find a delayed-reported sell later on, a statement from the company, even. (25% fall warrants one!)
I feel strangely resigned about this, since what's left is hardly worth selling now!

[elgordo] 12/11/2007 10:32

Ouch. Anyone know why?

(Now well below estimated 48p per share cash holdings {see post 201 for calcs}.)

[elgordo] 02/11/2007 19:50

Jon - Pleased to say I also got into CWR, at 99p. Less pleased that buying CMF at 219p, and variously down to 101p. On reflection I agree that, barring a blockbuster of an announcement, there's still plenty of time to take advantage of any new progress here. As a first step, it would be nice to think it may finally be reaching a floor (not that I haven't had other holdings drop below cash value before, so I'm not discounting more falls).

Let's hope there's some development / partnership news before Finals in February. Director purchases would also be a nice vote of confidence following Priestnall's departure.

[jonwig] 02/11/2007 19:26

ElG, there's only CWR enjoying any sort of popularity at the moment among UK fuel cell companies (I'm pleased about that!!).

As for CMF's cash burn, I'd hope the JVs are pitching in their share of costs. It's just a pity they are announced, with nothing more to say afterwards.

My own view is that there will be time to buy more if/when the right sort of news is announced (a commercial contract, no less) as the market is unlikely to react sharply in the current mood.

[elgordo] 02/11/2007 16:23

Talking about valuing CMF at 0p, we're getting close to the market at least valuing their technology at that.

Cash balances at end June were £10.3m, with cash burn of around £1.8m per annum. So at end-October cash might be around £9.7m, which equates to 48p per share.

Much as I don't want to throw even more money into this black hole, I'd like to think that there must be some speculative interest due to show up near these levels...

[jonwig] 31/10/2007 19:14

Yup, ElG, I have indeed - a Halloween chart pattern!
(I re-calculated the SGA NAV in a post the other day, you may remember, on the basis of CMF = 0p.)

[elgordo] 31/10/2007 19:09

Jon - a sad coincidence, but have you tried comparing the CMF chart with that of SGA? Scarily similar.

[jonwig] 31/10/2007 19:04

Hi, PUG.

Their masterstroke was to IPO when they did, raising enough money to last them a good while.
As for management, they've been quite good at conserving cash, have entered the JVs they expected to (some high profile names here), and seem to have met the technical milestones set out in the prospectus. (I'll need to check that - it's a while since I've looked.)
They lost one of their two founders, of course.

The technology (flow-through fuel cells) could be sold under licence to other developers, provided it turns out to work properly, as it means size can be reduced significantly ... ideal for mobile devices.

Lack of recent news is probably the main reason for drip-selling - it doesn't take much to move the price.

[pugugly] 31/10/2007 18:10

jonwig:> Nice thread - however have great difficulty in evaluating both the technology, management, and the likelihood of them actually producing a cost effective, robust commercial product. Have to continue working but at teh moment the market appears to be valuing the IP at about £3M.