Cluff Natural Resources Share Discussion Threads

[master rsi] 22/6/2017 16:08

clickon

2.37 TCF

"As a result of this work, the Company increased its total combined P50 Prospective Resources from 845 BCF of gas to 2.37 TCF (approximately 410 million barrels of oil equivalent)."

"The Company continues to hold an option over 25% of Licences P2156 and P1944 in the Moray Firth containing the Fynn & Penny prospects, which the operator estimates could contain approximately 220 million barrels (55 million net) of potentially recoverable oil."

[master rsi] 22/6/2017 15:49

The buys still pouring in and the level 2 has gone to 2 v 1 on a narrow spread 2.85 v 2.90p

[clickon] 22/6/2017 15:47

5 million cubic metres of gas underground at Rough equals 176,573,334 million cubic feet. We have the potential of a lot more than that! Two and bit TCF

[master rsi] 22/6/2017 15:30

That's the one......

Anthony Hilton: At long last, Algy is getting the returns he deserves
Algy Cluff, one of the pioneers of the original oil discoveries in the North Sea a generation ago, received an OBE last weekend in the Queen’s Birthday honours list for his contributions to business, of course, but also to his substantial but unsung charity work.

Then, yesterday, he received a further present in the shape of a broker’s report singing the praises of his venture, AIM-listed Cluff Natural Resources, which is at present trading at around 2.5p having been as high as 5.8p and as low as 1.07p in the past 12 months.

Remarkably, however, the broker Allenby Capital reckons that the shares could be worth 12.5p, five times as much as they are now, albeit the caveats which surround any mining and exploration venture.

This column does not tip shares for the good reason that it normally gets it wrong but Cluff deserves a break.

At an age when most people would long since have retired from the scene he has had the energy and nerve to assemble a small bundle of properties in the southern North Sea, at a time when with the collapse in energy prices scared off most of the competition.

In late April the petroleum engineering company Xodus released a report which said that if gas stayed within the price range predicted for it in the next few years then the Cluff properties had the potential to make significant money. It has been established that there is certainly gas there, but the question is whether Cluff can persuade someone else to come and drill it for him, in return for a slice of the profits, because he does not have the money to do it himself.

Obviously landing this kind of deal is harder than it might be because of the squeeze on energy prices has reduced the appetite in the industry for drilling yet more holes, even when the prospects are good. But Allenby is excited because BP is drilling nearby at the moment in similar geology, and if they get good results then clearly that will kickstart interest in Cluff’s assets.

Nothing is ever certain but the brokers clearly think he has a good chance of finding a partner and, if he does, on the basis of what they think is down there, the shares could take off. And one has to say that if they do, it is no more than Cluff deserves..

[master rsi] 22/6/2017 15:21

ree - share price action

maybe just a bit

[kristini2] 22/6/2017 15:16

this comment cannot be the reason for the share price action though ?

[master rsi] 22/6/2017 15:13

thanks vivgav
Anthony Hilton: The perils of ignoring North Sea oil are very real

In a month when the oil-price benchmark has plunged from $54 to $48, it takes courage to say it will hit $85 before the end of the year.

But that is what happened a few days ago at one of those conferences in London where analysts from leading independent research boutiques sell their expertise and best ideas to professional fund managers.

It is a minority view but that is what makes it interesting — to echo the words of the legendary John Templeton, one of the early hedge-fund pioneers, who noted that no one ever made serious money by following the crowd.

Before fracking techniques were perfected earlier this decade, it was impossible quickly to step up the output of oil. A little extra might be squeezed from existing finds but it took years to locate new fields, develop them and bring them onstream. That rigidity of supply in the face of fluctuating demand meant prices were volatile.

But fracking now makes it possible to turn oil production on and off like a tap, which means supply can adjust quickly to demand — and that should mean the end of volatility. Conventional wisdom has it that oil prices will never again rise much above $55 because fracking in the US becomes economic at or around that price, and will kick in.

But Matthieu Raimbault of Palissy Advisors told his audience this view was too simplistic. Breakeven calculations for the shale producers were “lazy”, he said, and too often based on the cost of an additional barrel from an existing well. However, it cost a lot more than this to start again from scratch, so you needed a much higher price to get things going.

The consensus also underestimated the difficulty of reassembling crews of skilled workers after so many had been laid off; it failed to take into account shortages in essential raw materials like fine sand; and it underestimated the increased cost of hiring drilling rigs when everyone wanted them at once.

That was why he reckoned a continuation of the Opec-induced supply squeeze could push oil to $85 before fracking production kicked in in sufficient volume.

Meanwhile, on this side of the Atlantic, one of the most astonishing omissions in the Government’s industrial strategy document, published earlier this year, was that there was no mention of the North Sea.

This is despite the fact it is this country’s major industrial asset and still has huge potential even with production declining. The mere thought the oil price might spike has significant implications for this country, because it could give a further lease of life to our oil and gas industry.

There are, for example, hundreds of small pockets of oil — some owned by the oil majors, some by the Government via the Oil and Gas Authority, some capped and some abandoned.

These cannot support a full production platform and pipelines but, just as fracking has revolutionised shale production, so it is now possible to mount a drill on a tanker, position the ship above the pocket and milk it.

This is not happening, however, because the industry is at an unfortunate inflexion point with prices so low.

The big companies are pulling out because they only understand big projects, but small firms — with the possible exception of Cairn — are financially too weak to take advantage of the opportunity.

The bigger prize still is the prospect of increased gas production.

The Government likes gas but seems determined to back the wrong horse by giving encouragement for fracking for gas on land — an odd idea for two reasons. First, there is far more unrecovered gas in the North Sea than on land.

So it would make more sense to exploit that initially, given the huge amount of expertise we have, the relative ease of extraction and the massively reduced environmental impact.

Second, even the Americans seem to understand how unpopular fracking will be if it is attempted in a small country like Britain, the more so when it takes place in areas of outstanding natural beauty.

Indeed, they appear to think that the combined opposition from Greens and the wider middle class to a process that fractures rock underground by pumping in a high-pressure mixture of water, chemicals and sand is politically as well as environmentally toxic.

Thus, while all the expertise in this technology is American, no Americans applied for drilling rights in the latest round. That seems to be saying that it will be years before the opposition is overcome.

However, a growing number of small independents are assembling North Sea assets. Industry veteran Algy Cluff, for example, has put together an interesting portfolio through Aim-listed Cluff Natural Resources, and is looking for partners to help finance drilling.

In terms of value for money and helping meet Britain’s immediate energy needs, he is convinced that what he wants to do makes far more sense than potentially offering a $5 billion (£4 billion) subsidy to help build a wind farm on Dogger Bank or taking an even bigger gamble on building a tidal barrage in Swansea Bay.

He is surely right in this, and a country with a sensible energy policy would give him and the other remaining North Sea operators as much support and encouragement as possible in their efforts to extend the life of the assets. Unfortunately, the fact the North Sea failed to get a mention in the key industrial policy document suggests that such common sense is in short supply in Government circles.

[vivgav] 22/6/2017 15:10

See Evening Standard & Vox

[cielos] 22/6/2017 15:09

Did I buy at bottom then 2.35p?
nice to see a good rise with plenty of trades

[kristini2] 22/6/2017 15:03

for how long and how far ?

Would be nice to get a result here, been in since just after the IPO ! Will my patience be rewarded ?

[master rsi] 22/6/2017 15:01

And the share price on the rise

Some had missed the chance to buy at today's lows or last week lows

[kristini2] 22/6/2017 13:30

just a thought- but if the resource potential with clnr is so great- would a deal not have been agreed by now ? Maybe not and no news is good news, algy with his wealth probably cares less than i do with my 2.4 m holding !

[cielos] 22/6/2017 12:45

what?

" I will try and buy 50000 "
" my buy price "

there is more than 1 with - Diarrhoea -

[clickon] 22/6/2017 12:04

Limited access, there is a glut of gas at the moment, though the LNG is not as readily available as NG, especially at times of demand. The gov does not seem too bothered by the pending closure of the Rough North Sea gas storage facility. Decommissioning will take years and Centrica are looking to pump out as much gas from it as they can, approximately 5 million cubic metres.

[anley] 22/6/2017 11:25

and the offer is 2.40 so I have declined as this has not hit my buy price.

[anley] 22/6/2017 11:19

OK so I will try and buy 50000 and see what happens........

[master rsi] 22/6/2017 11:01

spread 2.35 v 2.40p

There is pressure on Cantors ( CFEP ) on the offer alone, to move up on the Level 2 as the bid side got very strong after the last few buys

Level 2
3 v 1
--------

earlier 1 MM bought 50K from Cantors to move up the 2.35p offer

10:19:25
2.35p
50,000

[master rsi] 22/6/2017 10:31

re - adding

It seems a sensible reason, much as I had wished the share price would find a floor recently, the market, the time of the year and events on the country had the market on a turmoil at the moment and more patience will be necessary

[cielos] 22/6/2017 10:23

Why adding?

Prospect 2248, among my reasons for investing but I assume you have studied these and know there is plenty in the reports to give cheer to those already on board and motivate others who are considering a buy.

A busy data room means that there are potential partners out there who are sizing up for themselves the likely worth of a joint venture.

News of a farm in will prove the real catalyst and probably double straight off the value of shares bought at today's price.

[cielos] 22/6/2017 10:06

Here are my 50K buy for the day
Less talk and more action on the press bottom
adding at this lows

[limited access] 22/6/2017 10:03

I agree entirely with regards our gas reserves. But personally I wouldn't see decommissioning of storage facilities as a positive sign in the long run, although I realise this may not tie in directly with the delivery of our gas....if proven, extracted and supplied by us or any partner/buyer....

[soulsauce] 22/6/2017 09:53

Solar and wind are great, as are cheap imports but none are definite and safe and just offshore.
It would be a mistake for the govt to rely on any of those.

[limited access] 22/6/2017 09:44

Our gas is safely stored under the North Sea . The question is, in the current climate of surging solar/wind input into our grid ( near 50% some days) and cheap tanker loads of liquid gas from the US/ Middle East, are the economics of sea bed extraction etc just not stacking up anymore?