Close Brothers Share Discussion Threads

[its the oxman] 05/9/2014 00:16

Decent results should send us higher so my fingers are crossed and I will resist the temptation to lock in my profits. Probably live to regret it but hey ho.

[high park] 04/9/2014 20:42

Engulfing black candle is a reversal sign, Master, but that's not how the day finished.


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[woodcutter] 04/9/2014 10:41

closed my trade yesterday on the spike up, just above 1380p potential resistance. will consider buy back on confirmation of uptrend. Possible -ve divergence forming and reversal signal.

i would expect it might form an uptrend channel from here, will wait to see if it turns down to channel support before coming back in.

woody


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[mechanical trader] 03/9/2014 13:16

CBG

Looks very cheap to me, way undervalued......

Close Brothers Group PLC

FORECASTS

2014 2015
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-09-14 HOLD 102.00 48.00 116.00 52.00
Peel Hunt LLP
02-09-14 BUY 199.45 102.44 49.00 232.72 120.88 53.50
Shore Capital
29-08-14 HOLD 197.80 101.60 49.00 225.00 117.10 54.00
Westhouse Securities
28-08-14 BUY
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
24-07-14 BUY 201.00 101.80 50.00 243.30 127.40 57.00
Numis Securities Ltd
24-07-14 HOLD 197.60 105.90 51.60 222.30 119.20 57.60

2014 2015
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 198.64 101.95 49.41 228.95 119.10 55.09
1 Month Change 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.05 0.01 -0.03
3 Month Change 0.01 -1.20 0.05 0.06 0.03 1.35

GROWTH
2013 (A) 2014 (E) 2015 (E)

Norm. EPS 18.82% 27.12% 16.82%
DPS 4.94% 16.27% 11.49%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2013 (A) 2014 (E) 2015 (E)

Dividend Yield 3.10% 3.61% 4.02%
Dividend Cover 1.89x 2.06x 2.16x
PER 17.08x 13.44x 11.50x
PEG 0.91f 0.50f 0.68f
Net Asset Value PS 451.29p 489.70p 549.10p

[woodcutter] 03/9/2014 10:00

Undervalued Close Brothers a buying opportunity


Fears about rising interest rates impacting lending group Close Brothers Group (CBG) are unfounded, according to Berenberg.

Berenberg analyst Pras Jeyanandhan retained a ‘buy’ recommendation and increased the target price of the shares from £16.40 to £16.65. The shares were trading at £13.70 yesterday.

‘Close Brothers shares have underperformed the Stoxx Europe 600 in 2014 by c.7% on concerns around the impact of rising interest rates in the UK,’ he said. ‘We think these fear are unfounded, and see the recent pullback as a good buying opportunity for a high-quality growth business.

‘We see significant scope for a re-rating as the group’s return on equity continues to improve and the rate of growth in tangible book value picks up. Close is our top pick among the specialist lenders.’

woody

[luckymouse] 02/9/2014 21:30

In case you were wondering that's a simple yardstick formula - useful if you want a quick n dirty method of telling if somethings notably over or under (assumes no govt, ccy, foreign risk).

You can be a bit more specific - CGB is in the FT250 & Fin Svcs sector but actually has a wider range of activities:

markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/markets/DataArchiveFetchReport?Category=EQ&Type=FTUK&Date=09/01/2014

Avg Adj PE (latest 12.6, FY1 11.6, FY2 10.1, Avg(Fins Over Sct 19.22 + Fins Svcs Sct 16.48), FTSE250 18.45) = 14

14 * FY1 EPS 117.81 = 1663

Exact same as Berenberg - although they probably used a horribly complicated model ;)

ATB LM

[luckymouse] 02/9/2014 19:29

I concur with Berenberg Bank

Avg PE (latest 12, FY1 11.6, FY2 10.1, Sector 19.3, FTSE Actuaries 19) = 14.4

14.4 * FY1 EPS 117.81 (9 Bkr consensus) = 1696

Even if you assume a £1 discount its well under valued

[mechanical trader] 02/9/2014 16:15

CBG Close Brothers, P/E of 16.9 falls to 11.3 2015, PEG of 0.68. Looks rather cheap.

[mechanical trader] 02/9/2014 16:12

CBG Close Brothers

Broker Recommendationd looking bullish....

Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes
02 Sep Berenberg Buy 1,365.00 1,640.00 1,665.00 Reiterates
24 Jul Canaccord Genuity Buy 1,365.00 1,800.00 1,800.00 Reiterates
24 Jul Numis Hold 1,365.00 1,325.00 1,325.00 Reiterates
05 Jun Liberum Capital Buy 1,365.00 - 1,498.00 Initiates/Starts
27 May JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 1,365.00 1,512.00 1,512.00 Retains

[woodcutter] 02/9/2014 10:02

inverse head and shours neckline now broken. needs to stay above 1345pish to retain uptrend.

aimho woody


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[emeraldzebra] 01/9/2014 08:32

vm agree with Luckymouse...the p/e seems v undemanding.

[woodcutter] 29/8/2014 11:36

looks like we might have a breakout

[luckymouse] 26/8/2014 18:59

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[luckymouse] 26/8/2014 14:30

FTSE250 Feb-Aug Bull flag broke up today (looks bullish)
FTSE350 Fin Svcs is testing resistance today (could go either way)
CGB.L Major rising spt at 1250 tested & respected 3 times - looks solid. TA similar to FT250 - ie a bull flag that broke up at 1291 - taking out minor resistance at 1300 & last trend high at 1319 confirms

Whether it retests 1270 or just runs depends on mkt sentiment & geopoliticals

Within 5% of its 3yr %oversold boundary
Fundamentals look good
Bkr consensus looks a bit under - possibly by as much 50p-100p

DYOR as usual
ATB LM

[luckymouse] 26/8/2014 13:38

This looks undervalued
should be £15-£16

[woodcutter] 22/8/2014 22:27

interesting chart developing trending in a similar fashion to the financial services sector index. There's a possible -ve price divergence developing that would see the share price fall again which would not be surprising as 1300p potential resistance has been tested several times in the recent past.

Nevertheless it looks to be generating tighter highs and lows with a potential floor at around 1250p. However pennants do tend to break in the direction of the trend. It needs to break to 1350p to be a significant move imo.

Todays candle pattern also indicates strength, the gap up was held and closing price was strong

I declare a holding.



aimho woody

[whilstev] 19/8/2014 12:11

I think the share price has bottomed at the 1230p level and now making steady progress upwards with 1450 in its sights. The results should be the catalyst for further progress with 1650 the long term target.

[its the oxman] 19/8/2014 09:44

Looking like we will have to wait till 23rd Sep results to push this higher.

[its the oxman] 07/8/2014 00:03

No respite yet. Summer blues well and truly in charge but our time will come.

[topvest] 06/8/2014 14:01

Well I've finally bought some of these. A quality stock if there ever was one.

[woodcutter] 01/8/2014 09:58

absolute panic!

The good getting dragged down with the bad again and on little volume

a further buying opportunity will soon be upon us.

Woody

[woodcutter] 25/7/2014 09:53

OX i figure it's being held back by all the c*ap flowing into the media regarding libor fixing etc. There's more today:

Bailed-out Lloyds Banking Group appears poised to become the latest financial firm to be penalised for rigging Libor and is said to be facing a fine of between £200m and £300m. The bank, 24% owned by the taxpayer, is expected to pay the fine to the City regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, as well as regulators in the US, which are involved the extensive investigation into the potential rigging of the benchmark interest rate. - The Guardian

Barclays is attempting to have fraud allegations surrounding its so-called 'dark pool' trading platform thrown out of court. The British bank on Thursday filed a motion to have the major lawsuit, from Eric Schneiderman, the New York Attorney General, dismissed. Mr Schneiderman, the leading law official for the state of New York, alleged that the bank had engaged in "a flagrant pattern of fraud, deception and dishonesty with Barclays clients and the investing public".- The Telegraph


We need to see an end to all this. Then, once the gloom is lifted financials will rally imho. Now is the time to be buying the better players like CBG imv.

No advice intended but have a look at LRE, also very undervalued. I've posted a few times on the thread you can pick up my thoughts there.

aimho, dyor etc.

Woody

post note : i think you may have already posted on LRE.

[its the oxman] 25/7/2014 09:05

Broker Cannacord Genuity - 1800p target. That would be nice come the year end.

[its the oxman] 24/7/2014 20:42

Hope your right Woody. TS very positive. A little respite for the financials and this will be 1400p in no time.