Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 05/2/2009 11:40

The Baltic Dry Index had it's biggest jump in over a decade last night - that's why.

Shippers are going to fly imo, oil is bottoming (look at the CRUD chart) and shipping indicies are soaring.

CR

[hawks11] 05/2/2009 08:35

Why shares have to soar beats me.

[valter] 26/1/2009 22:12

from "clown brown" to "crash gordon"!

[sambessey] 26/1/2009 20:03

Yep Brown is gonna inflate all the bank debt away....

[valter] 26/1/2009 16:30

why the little numbers in trades?

[cockneyrebel] 17/1/2009 12:18

I saw that kibes - Capesize has started to rise tho, first signs of recovery it is said tho obviously that rise doesn't mean a long term uptrend. I've bought in quite small as the yield is good and the balance sheet but I wouldn't be overconfident in anything yet. All this banking malarky has a way to do and it's that that screws confidence imo.

Seems like they are just quoing bigger and bigger numbers for these bail outs - dunno how we ever pay all this lot back to each other without another huge boom of some sort - which only looks achievable from some other bubble. At least oil isn't going to run out as fast now :-)

CR

[kibes] 17/1/2009 10:22

These will go up but should they be going up yet? Shipping rates for dry goods have just hit zero apparently. Why wouldn't it retest the lows seen in earlier recessions eg the 136p seen in September 2002?

[edmundshaw] 14/1/2009 11:03

Like CR, I've made good money on these in the past; mainly from buying before & after the current shipping cycle started at around 200p.

On the face of it, super cheap. But no position yet, though watching closely now. Still concerned about the tonnage due to come on stream, and the lack of demand in the shorter term from China. Trading the oil contango effect is a bit too risky for my taste. And while these are cheap for the medium/long term, so is a lot else.

Looks a safe bet for the longer term, and a nice dividend for this year I'd guess. Also CKN is more diversified risk-wise now. Good luck all...

[cockneyrebel] 14/1/2009 07:55

good statement = should these really be down here? I don't think so.

Big rally likely at some point imo.

CR

[qs9] 14/1/2009 07:31

Decent update although not much guidance for next year.

[cockneyrebel] 12/1/2009 10:15

heading for one horny breakout today :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 12/1/2009 07:31

Oil traders demand ships to store crude before prices rebound.


Thanks for the link corbeta.

CR

[corbeta] 11/1/2009 17:44

Baltic Dry Index, has it bottomed and is it turning up?
If you look here:
- better info' and graph than Bloomberg IMO.
Cape Index graph has put in a higher low this week and Panamax and Supramax
have both recorded gains over several days for the first time
in a long time.

Just noticed the link has recently been posted on the BMS thread!

[schlemiel] 10/1/2009 19:58

'I think oil is going lower (and maybe much lower -- can you say $1-a-gallon gas?) in the near term. As I have written about before, oil is now in the steepest contango on record. That means oil is cheap today and more expensive in a few months. That is not normal. Oil is bidding for storage. You can make 20-25% on your money in a few months if you can buy oil and find somewhere to store it. At least 25 supertankers have been leased to store oil, and sources say another ten are being bid for. It remains to be seen if OPEC can really cut enough to make a difference in the near term'.

from mauldin

[cockneyrebel] 10/1/2009 15:02

Investment Banks Seek Supertankers for Contango Trade (Update1)
Email | Print | A A A

By Alaric Nightingale

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Investment banks want to hire supertankers to store crude oil at sea, seeking to profit as futures contracts get more expensive later in the year, according to Frontline Ltd., the largest owner of the ships.

A few banks are asking about Frontline's vessels, Jens Martin Jensen, the Singapore-based interim chief executive officer of its management unit, said by phone today.

The banks, which tend not to hire ocean-going tankers, are seeking to profit from a market situation called contango where futures prices are higher than the cost of immediate supplies. A purchaser could buy oil now, keep it for months at sea and fetch better prices by selling oil futures that are higher than the spot price.

"There's a window of opportunity right now and it could last some time," said Sverre Bjorn Svenning, a director at Fearnleys A/S, an Oslo-based shipbroker and consultant. Shipping costs could triple as a result and eventually bring an end to the trade, he said.

The companies exclude Citigroup Inc., Jensen said, declining to identify them. Its Phibro LLC commodities trading unit has the 1 million-barrel Ice Transporter stationed off northern Scotland, according to people familiar with the matter. Hedge funds aren't trying to conclude such deals, Jensen said.

'Significant Returns'

Morgan Stanley owns half of Heidmar Inc., a company that operates oil tankers on behalf of groups of owners. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trades commodities through J. Aron & Co. Barclays Capital noted the potential for profit as early as November, saying in a report that traders could make "significant returns" by storing oil and copper.

Heidmar hasn't had demand for its tankers to store oil, probably because the vessels aren't the largest supertankers that presently make the trade attractive, Tim Brennan, the company's chief executive, based in Norwalk, Connecticut, said by phone yesterday.

The pricing structure has been caused by excess near-term oil supply as demand slows, and speculation that output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce the glut later this year.

The cost of storing on supertankers works out at about 80 to 90 cents a barrel each month, Denis Petropoulos, head of tankers at Braemar Shipping Services Plc, the world's second-largest publicly traded shipbroker, said Jan. 7.

Hoarding at Sea

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March delivery are trading at $45.98 a barrel, about $4.78 more than the February contract.

Frontline's Jensen said Jan. 7 that oil traders wanted as many as 10 very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, to hoard oil for between three and nine months. That would take the amount being kept at sea to the equivalent of almost five days of European Union demand.

Iran, OPEC's second-largest member after Saudi Arabia, idled as many as 15 of its biggest ships in May to store crude. That contributed to three consecutive months of higher rental rates for ships.

Commodities prices fell the most in five decades last year, with crude dropping more than $100 from the peak of $147.27 a barrel in July, as simultaneous recessions hit the U.S., Europe and Japan. Oil demand in 2008 fell for the first time since 1983, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

[cockneyrebel] 09/1/2009 19:48

You too QS9

CR

[qs9] 09/1/2009 19:45

well up from a low of 650ish anyway 3800! Thanks for the link much appreciated as can watch and judge future purchases linked to this as well.

As CR states however the fundamentals on both CKN/BMS IMO are strong and any sign however small of economic contraction slowing and an improvement in sentiment and these IMO will move sharply. Lets see....relative strength is obviously good judging from chart.

Have good weekends

[cockneyrebel] 09/1/2009 17:19

Baltic Capesize is rising - usually a lead indicator to dray bulk pick up.

Also what about all these tankers being hired in the middle east just to store oil? That must be adding business to CKN and BMS imo.

Chart says you've missed the bottom here but not missed the bulk of the forthcoming rise - which should be pretty steep when it goes through 440p

CR

[sambessey] 09/1/2009 17:03

This is only rising with market sentiment. Reckon there is a fallback coming.

[3800] 09/1/2009 16:57

QS9
the BDI can be found here
as for it going up, you wish
3800

[qs9] 09/1/2009 12:46

What is the shipping index doing, heading North as well? BMS/CKN seem to move inline with that as well....

[bolador] 08/1/2009 15:07

Looks to be a nice bowl forming in the CKN share price chart but the potential
cup and handle nearly completed by BMS is a delight to see, especially if and
when the share price reaches 300. "Cup and handle" finest chart bull signal of all,
but the completion of chart patterns are best not anticipated by jumping the gun !

[bolador] 07/1/2009 09:21

CR
Thanks for the info.

[cockneyrebel] 06/1/2009 17:21

At the interims CKN said they had settled a dispite with a Russian Shipping co for £21m.

"Settlement of claims with Novoship and Sovcomflot leading to a previously
announced exceptional cost of GBP21.0m"

I presume that will come off the cash balance that the co had at the interims. They had net funds of £32m at the inteims so that leaves £11m net cash.

They paid 16p divi at H1, 44p is the tear's divi forecast so that means aboyt 28-29p final divi. Final divi goes xd in May.

So over 17 months you get around 70p in yield.

132p earnings expected - even if that fell to 100p this year the divi is well covered. So a PE of 4 even if earnings fell to £1 and around 18% yield over 15 months.

That's a lot of earnings per share and total return if you believe 6 months to a year out economies will have improved.


BMS looks even cheaper imo and I struggle to remember when BMS was cheaper than CKN so might be worth splitting the investment across the two - directors have been strong buyers at BMS.

CR