Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 02/1/2009 10:42

Probably one of my best ever investments - owned these several times since 2000 - multi-bagged them lots of times - been a real star.

Chart starting to turn imo - will be going very long here as they bounce, great well run co and prone to getting very oversold in markets like this - I think we'll have a positive trading statement soon and you just won't be able to buy for the dust.

11% yield, PE under 4, net cash of £32m at the interims - even if a big chunk of that goes in settling with the Ruskies which is now settled they still have £10m+ net cash.

Looks a screaming buy to me.

CR

[rogerbridge] 02/1/2009 10:09

Sold these 12 months ago and now back in tripled my investment last time hoping for the same again.

[cockneyrebel] 02/1/2009 08:20

Chart turning, BMS chart already turned - net cash of a large amount here, screaming low PE and great yield - gonna fly north at some point soon imo.

Capesize index on the up too.

And the strong $ helps a lot too.

CR

[owenski] 16/12/2008 15:34

Took a wedge of these today, managed to get inside the silly spread, not calling a bottom or anything rash like that, just seemed the right thing to do.
Regards all, good luck, happy xmas or similar.

[qs9] 15/12/2008 16:43

Agree, in at the bottom....

[future financier] 15/12/2008 09:39

FT today - "One of the world's key shipping markets has begun to recover from a slump, with a revival in Chinese demand for iron ore and coal pushing some average charter prices up almost threefold in the past week.

The revival in prices, after a disastrous six months for the industry in which charter rates fell nearly 99 per cent for the largest vessels, could encourage shipowners to bring mothballed vessels back into service."

This is a class act - I rode it from £2.50 to £10 and think its time to get back in now

[qs9] 10/12/2008 17:30

bouncing nicely

[qs9] 29/11/2008 22:46

oversold IMO, one to tuck away.....

[qs9] 14/11/2008 18:30

Looking like a good solid yield come what may iMO on this.

[qs9] 12/11/2008 07:45

mmm be interesting to see which way the market swings on this, hitting 2008 figures but 2009 likely to be more challenging.....downgrades likely me thinks, but CKN IMO must already be more than pricing this in? Opinions?

[spob] 11/11/2008 04:50

From Coxe's Q&A: "Ted spread down through 150"
============

The iron ore companies are renegotiating with China in particular what the prices will be and once they've got a new pricing structure although China's steel prices are down, China is continuing with its infrastructure development. The Chinese economy is not collapsing and they still have got to carry forward their 30 year plan of having 200 cities of more than a million population to permit the migration which will be the greatest migration in history of people from small farming units of one and two hectares into the city because one and two hectare farms do not produce the extra food that's needed to support urban populations.

So the Chinese will not abandon that strategy. They've reduced their interest rates and reserve requirements three times in a short space of time. This is the fastest response from China on record.

Therefore at some point what you're going to be able to do is see cargos flowing again. The other thing is that because of the banking crisis you couldn't get bankers willing to put up the money for the trade credits needed that you could ship it and you'd know you'd get paid in a bank draft at the other end. The
banking system had just basically shut its doors.

So the reliquification of the global banking system which will be virtually complete once we've got the Ted spread down through 150. My prediction is that once the Ted spread is down there you're going to see a sharp leap in the Baltic Dry Index. The prospect that you were going to load up a ship and send it out and you weren't going to be paid at the other end was enough that you weren't going to bother chartering a ship to do anything.

/more:

[sandbank] 10/11/2008 15:34

Chinese are double-announcing stuff already announced. Wonder where they learned that?

[qs9] 10/11/2008 13:33

If Chinese stimulus is so large, will they not need to continue importing raw materials to achieve this spend AND therefore will the BDI not have to rise to cope with the demand? Thoughts please as BMS and CKN would therefore rise sharply if that is the case......fact that miners have all rebounded 10%++ today suggests market thinks they will continue to sell lots to China, so why not BDI moving??

[minuteman] 06/11/2008 16:53

Cannot see BDI getting any lower, so a potential bottom found here

[robcoo] 31/10/2008 09:44

It would be encouraging to see some buying by directors

[dom001] 31/10/2008 08:56

@clompie
Maybe not....

[clompie] 30/10/2008 11:43

Looks like we have all missed the bottom - for now

[robcoo] 29/10/2008 17:05

I don't believe that debt is a problem. Cash of £84m (up from £64m) at the half year after paying the litigation settlement figure was almost sufficient to pay all current liabilities, and the business is clearly highly cash generative. Net funds, after deduction of borrowings, amounted to £32.3m (2007:
£10.7m). Whatever the problem, it isn't apparent to me from the half year figures

[pugugly] 29/10/2008 16:16

C&R Agreed share price movement looks very odd. Noted that they moved into financial services - could be problems here as timing could not have been worse (in a general sense) Also do not know how they traded futures - If they got this wrong could have created a very big hole.

not that I know anything just speculating on why the share price has fallen so fast.

They also have relatively high level of borrowings at £50.8 million - Not sure when it has to be renegotiated. Will have to do more digging.

[robcoo] 29/10/2008 15:24

Cosimodo

You're quite right up til yesterday- but look what's happened now! I have in mind moving back in to CKN since it is now priced as if it were threatened with insolvency, yet its half yearly results were excellent. But I have a lingering worry that some one knows more than I do about the company since the share price movement over the last two days appears totally illogical. If the price continues to drop I hope that the company will make an announcement in order to remove the uncertainty.

[cosimodo] 28/10/2008 20:23

If it had not been for the Russian business I think CKN would be at least 10% higher. Roboco, I think the BMS and CKN Sps correlate incredibly. The CKN Sp has been very close to 2X BMS's since the end of June. If you look at a ADVN graph with both on it the lines keep crossing. Clarkson's Sp seems to do odd swings of 120p and BMS about 40p. as there has been a lot of volatility but recently, the prices have not diverged by more than 10%, for periods, longer than a week. That spread could be due to just a couple of medium sized trades in opposite directions
However the combined trend does seems to be levelling out. Both firms are beginning to look good medium/long term investment prospects but many buyers probably await improving news on the LOC front.

[robcoo] 28/10/2008 11:12

I don't understand the lack of correlation between this and BMS. BMS produces good half year results, makes a reasonably confident statement and the price goes up. CKN, in essentially the same market, goes down over 8%. Can anyone explain this?