Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[wilmot] 27/6/2008 06:56

Its not a very clear RNS. How much is the settlement?

[hawks11] 25/6/2008 09:15

I just looked in as I used to be a holder on and off for a long time and it should have been on my watch list but clearly I didn't check. Could go anywhere from here.

[bluenose851] 23/5/2008 11:36

this share is quite remarkable......50% up since everyone slated it!!

[spob] 12/5/2008 15:42

The little and large of soaring shipping costs

It seems to be the fate of bulk shipping markets to be constantly misunderstood. In January, a precipitous plunge in rates for the largest dry bulk carriers led to a panic that this was finally the leading indicator of the end of the commodity boom. That was even though those involved in the market insisted the main problem was a short-term drying-up of supply of iron ore and coal and a consequent short-term over-supply of ships. Now that the market is again back near record levels - as you can see at DryShips, one of the largest bulk operators - some analysts are again linking rates to a wider economic trend, the spike in worldwide food prices.

The link is definitely there this time - but more weakly than most people realise. Rates for the biggest bulk ships - the Capesizes, so-called because they have to go round Cape Horn and the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Panama and Suez Canals - have risen far more sharply than those for the smaller sizes of ships. Capesizes are used exclusively for shifting the goods that move in the largest quantities, coal and iron ore. Their high rates consequently cannot be a direct result of strong demand for wheat, soyabeans or any of the other agricultural products that go in bulk carriers.

Instead, respected market observers like Martin Stopford at Clarkson, the London shipbroker, and Howard Bright at Braemar Seascope believe prices are being driven mainly by resurgent demand from steelmakers after the near-closure of the iron ore market earlier this year. "The demand is always there," Mr Bright says of the iron ore market. "China is hoovering the stuff up. If the supply is available, they'll take it."

Agricultural demand probably plays a part. Instead of using a Capesize of 180,000 deadweight tonnes to shift iron ore, a charterer unhappy with Capesize rates can substitute two vessels of 90,000 dwt. Since those ships could be carrying wheat, rises in larger ship sizes affect rates for smaller ship sizes, while increases in rates for the smaller ships can push up rates for bigger vessels. The southern hemisphere grain and soyabean harvest is consequently probably helping to push up rates.

But the evidence is still overwhelmingly that other factors are more important. Capesize rates have still spiked more in recent weeks than those for Panamaxes, ships that can use the Panama Canal and carry a wide range of products. That suggests demand for coal and iron ore - the products shipped in Capesizes - is driving demand. Since iron ore exporters won a 65 per cent price increase from customers as of April 1, it would be surprising if their enthusiasm for shifting ore had not recently increased.

Even more importantly, the supply of ships is pretty much static in the face of rising demand. Martin Stopford says the world dry bulk fleet was 132.5m dwt on April 1, against 131.4m on December 31. There are many, many vessels on order out there but, for the moment, very few being delivered.

The truth of the situation is that the market for dry bulk ships - and rates for their sisters, tankers - look set to remain highly volatile for the foreseeable future. There certainly remains strong demand for the products they carry and lack of ships in key areas will sometimes create spikes of the kind currently under way or that just before Christmas in the crude oil tanker market. But shipowners' fears - that they could find themselves with unemployed ships in brief market lulls - also occasionally send markets plunging. It is precisely the kind of situation of which analysts are paid to make some kind of sense. But, with swings so extreme and the market so prone to short-term over-reaction, it pays to treat most rational explanations with some care.

Related links
What happened to the Baltic Dry's 15 minutes of fame? - FT Alphaville, January 2008

Robert Wright is the FT's transport correspondent

[davidosh] 09/5/2008 16:03

Anyone get the scoop from the AGM ?

[valter] 09/5/2008 15:59

?????????????????????????

[davidosh] 01/5/2008 12:17

Not a nice company for shareholders this one.

* Bonuses increase by 10 times more than the shareholder returns

* Court case clouds overhead

* Provisions now but bonuses already paid out

* CEO departs without any explanation

* The CEO has a significant shareholding so there must be something extremely negative to come out of this action IMO


Thankfully the AGM is only seven days away and I suggest all shareholders looking to retain any interest in this company need to attend and question all the above and a few other issues.

[qs9] 30/4/2008 19:58

Blimey: this is not good and IMO this could tank further tomorrow after that RNS. Holders watch out and agree with the sentiments above. However, a big move downwards could be a buying opportunity but it may be like catching a knife....lets see

[clompie] 30/4/2008 18:12

What is it that CKN can have done to ask for such cash damages.

Never sure about any one with two names, they always seem to shaft me and end up rose odoured.

mb

[minuteman] 30/4/2008 18:01

This is not good at all

[paxton208] 30/4/2008 17:11

keep it brief

[sambapati] 30/4/2008 17:08

More likely the Russians have demanded his head as part of a settlement - the RNS is very strangely worded - normally a CEO would be able to be seen to do the noble thing but in this case it is made obvious he has been kicked out. Keep a lookout for more announcements detailing what the settlement will be - suspect it will be a lot of dough. Who is this Case character, whats his background ?

[nickcduk] 30/4/2008 16:28

Rather fishy the 2 statements weren't released at the same time. I think it still follows that 2+2=4 and that Mr Fulford-Smith walking the plank has something to do with the legal claim. I think there is a real possibility that CKN will be liable for the damages being sought. Watch this space.

[charlie] 30/4/2008 16:22

Have lost touch with this stock, but wow.

29/4/08: The Board has reviewed with its advisers the litigation concerning previously announced claims totalling $67m from Sovcomflot and Novoship, the Russian state-owned shipping companies. As a result of the discovery of new evidence and ongoing discussions with the Claimants the Board has decided, without any admission of liability, to make a further provision against the claims of £8m.


30:/4/08: Clarkson PLC announces that Richard Fulford-Smith has today been asked to and has stepped down from the Board and as Chief Executive. His future role within the group is a matter for further discussion.

Are they by any chance related? (cr. Private Eye)

[cambium] 28/4/2008 15:13

It also didnt have the fall :o(

BDI up nicelay again

[davebowler] 28/4/2008 14:52

Guys, have a look at BMS it hasn't yet had the surge in price that Clarkson has.

[graham101] 28/4/2008 13:04

I read in either Evening Standard Friday or Times that the movement in share price was due to large increase in Dry Bulk rate for shipments to China - due to oil price increase (hope that make sense as I was doing this from memory).

[spob] 28/4/2008 12:12

is the chart working here ?

[qs9] 25/4/2008 19:54

has the Baltic shipping index moved significantly? if not then I agree this could be stake building? OR, has anyone got the latest broker notes as the eps figure seems to have gone through the roofwith 130p forecast for year after next??

Thanks
and looking forward to breaking the £10 barrier Monday

[byjove] 25/4/2008 19:05

OK, so if it's not a settlement with the Russians, and not an agreed bid, could it be a hostile bid? In the past the board has been able to fend off the approaches Fulford-Smith has alluded to. Could some of the major shareholders feel it's time to throw in the towel given the litigation is unlikely to come to court 'til late 2009?

[bluenose851] 25/4/2008 16:28

50% movement after they broke 10 quid in three days...something has happened

[cambium] 25/4/2008 12:01

looks like whatever rumours ahve been denied though for the moment

[spob] 25/4/2008 11:54

Bdi is moving ahead strongly but i suspect there is more to the recent activity here