Civitas Social Housing Share Discussion Threads

[peckers56] 28/9/2021 18:45

Since my post (at 16:46), there have been 4 subsequent postings. None responded to my question
. Am I surprised? Not really.

[george stobart] 28/9/2021 18:22

is this one heading to the earths core or what

[williamcooper104] 28/9/2021 18:17

Do we know what the sq ft of their portfolio is That'll give a very rough idea as to how much of a quantum existing use is over alternative use (would need to add conversion costs and it's very rough)

[mushypeas] 28/9/2021 18:11

If the elastic snaps there will be no modulus. As a continuing holder this isn't my believable scenario, but W104 suggested above that a book value based on the residential NAV would be appropriate. This isn't the case, if those residential values are approached the bank covenants blow big time and this becomes a penny share.

[chucko1] 28/9/2021 17:50

Falling knife? Yes, but with the assets backing the value, it's a knife with a piece of elastic attached.

Anyone care to offer an estimate, though, as to what is the Young's Modulus of this elastic?

[peckers56] 28/9/2021 16:46

I attended in-person last week's AGM - I was the only one!!!!. For those unable to attend, I believe there was a facility to raise questions either before (offline) or during the AGM (online). With so many recent negative (board-related) ADVFN comments, I had expected at least "someone" to use this facility. Unless the chair lied, no-one did. Why didn't you??

[williamcooper104] 28/9/2021 14:36

Yep - management buying into a turnaround is no guarantee of success But management not buying in is a big tell

[spectoacc] 28/9/2021 13:35

Still pouring out money on the buybacks - seems a curious use of shareholders money, prior to releasing their explanation of why Shadowfall are allegedly wrong.

Agree with those who say it should be the directors/managers doing the buying.

[pdt] 28/9/2021 13:33

Added a few today. Rent collection 99%, NAV 108p, trading at a 20% discount, Yield 6%, inflation protected leases.

Feels oversold. I can see the business reason for selling off the Opco and as long as Civitas is achieving their business model return on leasing the property I am not too concerned. There is strong demand for this type of accommodation, good asset backing, perhaps leases will be more flexible in future if the Regulator gets involved. Perhaps local authorities will not pay as much but public sector provision seems even more expensive than private provision.

Future growth may be less attractive - happy to sit back and collect dividend and see some capital growth over time to eliminate some of the current discount.

I don't usually "catch a falling knife" but comfortable for a small punt in the circumstances. Time will tell as always!

[george stobart] 28/9/2021 09:33

Soon below 80p

[williamcooper104] 24/9/2021 11:16

No - it's often very difficult to remove external management One of the reasons why externally managed REITs often trade at a discount to internally managed

[wskill] 24/9/2021 10:48

Thats me out now far too much shenanigan's for me to be investing my pension in this very poorly managed company best out of it ,I would have thought that an external manager who cannot run the assets in a honest and proper manner would be easy to remove.

Too many noses in the trough for that to happen.

[williamcooper104] 23/9/2021 13:43

Probably don't have any money after buying assets out of the company

[saltaire111] 23/9/2021 13:35

Would like to see some Director buys coming through. If they’re confident in their position, they should recognise the value in the company at the current share price.

Salty.

[williamcooper104] 23/9/2021 13:18

It's externally managed - so most likely very difficult to impossible to move management

[wskill] 23/9/2021 12:27

I suppose that if westmoreland and pivitol are only the tip of the iceberg management have been asleep at the wheel at best, or too busy on their own personal enrichment schemes what is needed is a removal of all management involved then a new CEO the Chairman must step up to the plate as he has only recently been appointed hopefully he has the mettle for such a task.

[williamcooper104] 23/9/2021 10:53

What management should release is the Vacant Pocesion (VP) value of the properties Eg if there was no lease in place, the RP didn't exist and the properties were then just leased out as ordinary rental properties what would the value be It will be materially less than the current value, but question is just how muchThat VP value is the ultimate baseline/defensive value point Banks usually ask for VP values so the company will have them or if not they can easily get a valuer to produce them (nether long nor short - just interested at moment)

[cwa1] 23/9/2021 10:45

Drifting off now

[wskill] 23/9/2021 10:01

Not a lot you can do in the UK if the directors decide to enrich themselves other than sell out the toothless watchdog will not even reprimand them ,very little wonder that the UK market is at this level while other markets are reaching new highs.

[davebowler] 23/9/2021 09:01

Liberum;
Civitas Social Housing

Response to Shadowfall letter

Mkt Cap £593m | Share price 95.4p | Prem/(disc) -11.9% | Div yield 5.8%

Event

Civitas Social Housing has published a response to yesterday's open letter from Shadowfall Capital. Shadowfall has a 0.8% short position in CSH.

Shadowfall's letter focused on three main areas:

Transparency on transactions with entities where the directors of the investment manager have an interest
The funding framework for rental income
Viability of rental income
The board has stated that it believes the letter is inaccurate and erroneous. A more detailed response will be published following a review of the claims in the lengthy letter. The company has reiterated its confidence in the portfolio and business model and reports robust operational performance.

Liberum view

We would expect a thorough response to the claims in the letter in the near term, particularly in relation to the queries on the funding framework. We note the company has continued to buy back shares, demonstrating confidence in the underlying business model. The questions raised regarding conflicting lease terms should be relatively straight forward for the company to respond to. In relation to the transaction with the entities where the directors have an economic interest, Civitas undertook a number of transactions where it acquired operating care businesses with property assets. The transactions were structured in this way in order to facilitate the acquisition of the properties. CSH cannot hold the care businesses and these were sold on as part of a back-to-back transaction with the Envivo Group (an entity in which the directors of the investment manager each hold a 10% stake in). The transactions were not disclosed publicly at the time as CSH did not want to highlight the transaction structure to competitors. We believe the figures referred to in the Sunday Times article do not give an accurate representation of the acquisition multiple. From Companies House, the TLC Care Home business was acquired for £5.4m (£4.3m to Civitas and £1.1m to pay off some of the liabilities of the acquired entities and other costs). The multiple was approximately 3x on the following year’s operating profit.

The letter from Shadowfall essentially claims that the true underlying occupancy of the properties is lower and rent is being funded through payments from care providers and developers. The company has consistently stated that service level agreements between the care providers and registered providers include provisions to cover voids. It is the care provider and local authority who decide on the fill rate based on clinical decisions and there are several reasons why a planned void may occur. Developers also agree to cover voids for a period of time when a new property is being brought into the sector and occupation will be staged for clinical reasons. In terms of void payments that are being met by the registered providers, the company previously guided to sub-5% and typically within a range of 1-3%.

[george stobbart] 23/9/2021 07:13

Looking at the full Shadowfall report, Civitas is effectively a Ponzi scheme laundering money through Fairhome Group and their Director's Isle of Man entities.

Auckland and Falcon are essentially part of the Civitas group who takes takes all decisions.

44% of the portfolio is leased to Civitas shell companies. The landlord and the tenant is the same person.

This ponzi scam should close <80p this week

[saltaire111] 21/9/2021 08:53

£150k company funded buy-back. Not a bad idea. Would like to see the Directors buying some shares too.

Salty

[typo56] 17/9/2021 20:11

Large uncrossing trade was due to being demoted to the SmallCap index.