Circassia Share Discussion Threads

[turvart] 01/5/2019 20:32

The abbot, I’ve been researching again this evening and the more I research the more I like this, when funds permit I’m adding, IMO this will be very promising and just think when they start paying dividends, this stock has got pension written all in it!

Gersemi, you would think sensible traders would close shorts now, that’s why I’ve been racking my brains if something else is behind this, to keep it cheap for a takeover bid.

[turvart] 01/5/2019 19:29

Takeover obviously very possible, I'm still thinking hard for the reason of this massive short, I know we know who is doing it, but I'm thinking who is behind it all, call me paranoid but I keep going toward AZN.
Why would any sensible trader want to be short at this level?
I would like to hear other views to why they think they are shorting it? I'm just trying to think outside the box here.

[gersemi] 01/5/2019 19:08

'would not have gone unnoticed amongst the sector heavyweights.'

What's the suggestion here? A takeover?

[gersemi] 01/5/2019 19:02

This stocks reminds me of Skyepharma and look what happened there. The potential is embedded. The foundations are in place.

[turvart] 01/5/2019 18:50

I honestly think this stock is one not to put money into that you need back in a few months, I think it’s one that should have a 5+ year term or longer. I will add to this and keep building my holdings, but I’m only using money I don’t need back short term and hopefully who knows in 10+ years time?
I’m getting goose bumps thinking of what share price this could be, with regards the shorter, look at it this way, it gives you more time to find funds. I certainly wouldn’t feel comfortable short at this level.

[gersemi] 01/5/2019 18:42

6 hours ago

Circassia slashes net cash outflow

By Mark Robinson

Drug developers require a steady stream of positive clinical updates to underpin market valuations. Circassia Pharmaceuticals (CIE) provided shareholders with precisely that a month ahead of these full-year figures when it revealed that US regulators had given the green light for two of its chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) treatments.

It is too early to say whether the news has arrested the share price decline of the previous 12-months, but given that very few UK-sponsored drugs have been approved in the US in the past few years, so the news - particularly in relation to the Duaklir drug - would not have gone unnoticed amongst the sector heavyweights. The drugs are complementary in that patients using its existing COPD treatment Tudorza (which got the go-ahead for the inclusion of new clinical data on its label) can move on to Duaklir if their condition deteriorates without needing to change their inhaler device.

Bloomberg consensus gives revenues of £64.5m for the December 2019 year-end, with an accompanying adjusted earnings loss of 7.6p a share, before £84.8m and a 5.2p loss in the following year.

CIRCASSIA PHARMACEUTICALS (CIR)
ORD PRICE: 32p MARKET VALUE: £ 120m
TOUCH: 31.2-32p 12-MONTH HIGH: 98p LOW: 25p
DIVIDEND YIELD: NIL PE RATIO: NA
NET ASSET VALUE: 34p* NET CASH: £40.7m
Year to 31 Dec Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2014 nil -44.0 -21 nil
2015 10.8 -62.8 -20 nil
2016 23.1 -38.8 -48 nil
2017 (restated) 46.3 -74.2 -19 nil
2018 48.3 -55.8 -14 nil
% change +4 - - -
Ex-div: -
Payment: -
*Includes intangible assets of £231m, or 61.5p a share.

IC View

Duaklir was initially approved in the European Union five years ago, but the US launch in the second half of 2019 is highly significant given the potential up-scale. With a new revenue stream in prospect, 2018 may come to be seen as a watershed for the company. Though the net cash-outflow fell by two-thirds to £18.8m, the continued backing by AstraZeneca (AZN), which boosted its holding to 19.9 per cent midway through last year, has been crucial. However, given the lowly free-float, shareholders may struggle to buy into the US growth story. Hold.

Last IC view: Hold, 34p, 01 Apr 2019

end

[mirabeau] 01/5/2019 12:30

I agree. When the seller(s) departed this should rally hard . Of course the $64m question is when will the seller depart?

[neilyb675] 01/5/2019 10:00

50K trades still coming

[neilyb675] 01/5/2019 09:58

spread has tightened

[rathean] 01/5/2019 09:29

Peel Hunt out with a buy recommendation. So for me these results draw a line under the reorganisation, still some pain to absorb with new direct sales teams in new territories but they've taken a big step towards becoming the self-funding clinical pharma. Happy to hold at this level and will add on weakness... otherwise bodes well. Finally one Woodford has called right imo dyor ofc.

[neilyb675] 01/5/2019 09:20

good post the abbot

[rathean] 01/5/2019 08:57

Most likely a short position being reduced, not sure I'd want to be hoping for a substantial drop in share price from this level... prudent to bank some profit and reduce your short position imo dyor ofc.

[mirabeau] 01/5/2019 08:47

There's nothing suspicious. It's a seller on the book. He's not desperate. It's very orderly selling to minimise impact

1 v 1 (5k v 32k)

He needs to be cleared before decent progress. if you're going to buy into CIR then now is the time to do it while there's a seller affording you the opportunity to do so

Isn't Woodford a seller here?

[neilyb675] 01/5/2019 08:42

4 x 50k trades, to me someone wants as much as they can at 32p....it wont hold forever at this price