Chrysalis Share Discussion Threads

[dassera] 19/5/2003 03:38

I own this stock and am a big fan of LBC and Heart. However, the shares appear on the face of it to be highly rated by the market. Does anyone have a handle on how they should be valued? Assuming the peripheral businesses are sold off, I guess they will be in a position to participate in consolidation within the industry, although the rules seem to need clarification given the market's reaction to the GWR news on Friday.

Any thoughts?

Regards
Dassera

[l2e] 07/5/2003 06:27

chrysalis show improving radio revenues.
Media set to rebound in 2004.
Looking good or not?

[greystone] 25/4/2003 10:03

Looks like it hatched! Nice 7.7% rise this morning.

[rjmahan] 10/2/2003 08:25

Yeah but look at the PE ratio - compare it to the sector.
Also look at the level of debt.
good short.

[cockneyrebel] 13/1/2003 11:37

This stock seems to have little following on here but of late it has gone through a dramatic turnaround from a loss of 10p last year to a 3.4p eps for the year just gone - a near 14p turnaround.

Of the 12 brokers that cover them none have a sell rating.

1 Strong buy, 4 Buy, 1 add, 2 MKt Perf, 4 Hold.

I have some dealings with these in my business side and the people I talk too out of Reading sound very upbeat.

All divisions are doing well according to the last results:

----------------------

Current year outlook

Despite the continuing uncertainty surrounding the wider economy, we have
enjoyed another good start to the current financial year. Chrysalis Radio has
experienced a buoyant first quarter with revenues up 17%, again strongly
outperforming the industry. Recent audience figures and increased revenue yield,
gives us great confidence that this outperformance will continue for the
foreseeable future.

We have also made very good progress with integrating the recent purchase of LBC
Radio, with a number of key appointments made ahead of the planned relaunch of
the stations in January 2003. Our progress to date has convinced us even more
of the considerable potential to deliver significant added value from this
acquisition in future years.

Our Television division has started the year well, with further series of our
two key dramas, Midsomer Murders and Ultimate Force, commissioned by ITV.
Earnings visibility in this business has improved with over 70% of the current
full year forecast now booked.

Within Music, the new Feeder album has got off to a very encouraging start, as
has the new album from David Gray, one of our key songwriters, which went
straight in at No. 1 in the album charts on release. Both albums should
contribute towards further profit growth from the Music division in 2003.

The Book Publishing companies received a positive reaction at the recent
Frankfurt Book Fair and with some high profile current releases due out this
Autumn (such as Cheryl Barrymore's autobiography) and further margin growth to
be extracted across the division, we expect 2003 to be a year of further
progress for Chrysalis Books.

The Group's current performance puts us in the strongest possible position going
into 2003, with all the changes that may come about as a result of the
forthcoming Communications Act. This new legislation will no doubt alter the UK
media landscape and we welcome the opportunities that are likely to result from
the increased liberalisation proposed therein.

-----------------------

After such a big turnaround in the compny the 4.35 eps estimate consensus for this year looks very much on the light side with plenty of room to beat.

Price has ticked up this morning, I'm wondering if we are in for a very healthy AGM statement on FEB 5 and this is the reason for the move up today. A big 65K buy also gone through. A director increased his holding in Dec by 15% which adds a positive note.

The PE doesn't look cheap on an initial look but if they are growing as fast as it seems that concensus may be quite an under estimate considering the 14p a share turnaround this year.

Might be a speculative punt prior to the AGM perhaps.

imo dyor.

CR

[harrykewill] 18/9/2002 09:31

bullish comment from charles stanley's croesus:

Chrysalis

Today's pre-close statement exceeds our expectations, and yesterday's nervous price fall in front of the announcement has been more than reversed.  In radio, there is ample confirmation that it is ripping market share off it rivals in an industry that is itself taking a growing share of the advertising cake: like for like radio revenues will be up 10% in an industry where revenues are likely to show a fall of 5%.  This makes the division easily the fastest growing radio business in the UK, driven by both audience growth and excellent audience to revenue conversion.  And with its big rival in London, Capital, likely to lose it breakfast show host Chris Tarrant when his contract ends at the end of this year, there is a golden opportunity to grab the number one position in the London market.  The recent performance of Heart 106.2FM, which has been growing total listening hours in the high double digits already this year, suggests this is a real possibility.  These are the main reasons why the business is an attractive potential target for overseas bidders looking for an entry into the UK radio market, the prospect of which has been greatly heightened by the proposals contained in the Draft Communications Bill which is currently going through Parliament.  The classy management team under CEO Richard Huntingfordhas built the radio division from scratch in seven years both organically and through a series of astute acquisitions - our understanding is that if the right offer came along they would be conducive to harvesting their investment.  With the rest of the business - TV, Books and Music - performing well, we expect the group to at least meet market expectations of almost tripling EPS from 3p in the year to August 2002 to 8p in the year to August 2004.  Including a takeout premium for radio, we think the sum of parts is 355p, so with the stock trading at less than half that today we are reiterating our Strong Buy rating. 

[fastbuck] 28/8/2002 19:35

Indalo it's quite telling that when Capital was flying, CHS hardly performed. Medium term I'd expect further weakness in the media stocks as the market gets bored waiting for the long awaited recovery in advertising as the premium rating given to these stocks starts to look un-warranted.

Company wise this is a mixed bag of businesses, none of which are performing that great i.e. less than £1m profit for a £300m business. IMO there is very little chance of anyone wanting this lot.

[fastbuck] 28/8/2002 12:17

More selling today, not large volumes but real selling ....

[fastbuck] 21/8/2002 11:56

This share has always been more hot air than substance. Now sitting at almost £300m in value I'm looking for the value gap to start closing.

This is the sort of thing that happens at the time of recessions, people start examining their portfolios a bit closer than before and ask themselves, 'why do I own this company?' I'm doing exactly the same from the other direction along with a number of respected investors & shorters 'is this share set for a fall?'

Looking at the last set of interim results if you see beyond the self congratulations they made a lousy £1m profit before tax, exceptional items & minority interests or if you like 0.58p EPS.

IMO there is also no reason to be bullish for the future, advertising is in a slump to 2004 according to WPP; music profits are on the slid with CD sales slipping; TV profits are no less reliable which leaves us with books. A P/E of I don't know what for books, radio stations whilst in ad revenue is in recession and a bit player in music & TV ... and books!!!

IMO either the profit needs to rise to £25m pa before tax or this share will be much nearer to 100p than it is today.

[indalo] 18/8/2002 23:49

NO?.....ok then....Short I will be........The dark side is strong in this one..

Feel the falls,

100p is your destiny!!

[mr ashley james] 18/8/2002 14:02

Moonblue,

LOL

Cheers

Ash

[mr ashley james] 18/8/2002 13:37

Bob,

"There should be a law against that kind of PE ratio."

LOL

Cheers

Ash

[indalo] 16/8/2002 15:10

I still can't fathom why this is valued at £300m!

Can some of the bulls please try and talk me out of shorting this to 100p..

[lurgy] 16/7/2002 14:43

Finally in the black!
That was one of the more worrying investments I have made. Came very close to losing my shirt at times, but held on with grim determination.
I still feel CHS is somewhat over-valued, would anyone agree?
I don't feel like closing my position entirely.

[mad4it] 25/6/2002 19:45

Brilliant....a genuine LOL !

[blackbear] 25/6/2002 19:24

ROTFLMOAO THATS THE FUNNNIEST THING ON HERE EVER ,WHAT HAPPENED TO THIS THREAD A REVISIT REQUIRED I THINK.

UNCLE BOB WHERE ARE YOU U FUNNY DUDE.

[lurgy] 17/12/2001 22:06

A great short at 190p, and an even better one now?
Scroeder just reduced a little I see.
My position is the same as it ever was.

[uncle-bob] 21/11/2001 11:19

Took profits - I've got no bottle!

[colombo] 21/11/2001 10:57

Bob i missed out again i closed my short some times back.i didnt take a new one.its pitty it fell just like that ,i didnt expect it.good luck.i am keeping out of it for time being.

[uncle-bob] 21/11/2001 10:43

There are obviously people listening. Shorts just started appearing and the price fell quickly. I've opened a couple of shorts today and yesterday - simply could not resist and tomorrow could be very ugly for CHS. But I'm not going to go on about it this time, got enough egg on my face!

PS Bloody hell, I only shorted them twenty minutes ago and they were green - now down 10%!

[uncle-bob] 21/11/2001 09:54

The trades in CHS are so weird. Lots of really big trades at peculiar prices. I suspect there's something good coming out of the results and plenty of people know about it. But they've risen a lot and the results will have to be fantastic to justify a further rise.

Keep an eye on them tomorrow!

Rob

[colombo] 20/11/2001 19:41

Rob this one caught me as well.I think rather than shorting go long on weakness.thats what i am doing now.but i dont know wether that applies to this co.