Chrysalis Share Discussion Threads

[lurgy] 02/11/2001 08:34

That's a bear point, by the way. Short I am too, since 242. Agree entirely with the jedi sage. Would not be surprised to see 60p in the not-too-distant.

[lurgy] 01/11/2001 09:11

Re directors' buys: note that they also bought at 215,220,280,290,300 and 305.

[uncle-bob] 01/11/2001 00:09

Marting - Interesting. The spread is a problem, I know. I suspect there's a few people short via spread bets now, which means the market price is not necessarily reflective of sentiment.

Look at something like ARM today though - too many shorters complicate the issue. Less volatily = less stress and hopefully easier money.

So far not a single trade in the market - fairly typical! As soon as more short jedis come along, the price should react.

Rob

[uncle-bob] 31/10/2001 16:37

Hi TP - 3p per share charge seems very steep! I had to pay 1p + spread via IG - was yours a real trade or spreadbet?

You can never know the whole story, but looking at the available data it seems vulnerable. This company was founded in the 60's but still can't make money, and it's into a lot of rubbish sectors. It's spread thinly, not focused, fingers in lots of pies, but lacks critical mass. A lot depends on how the radio industry pans out - seems to be a misconception that the advertising slump can't hurt digital radio. Erm..!

Perhaps there's a bull out there who can point out where I'm going wrong.

Regards and may the force be with you!

Rob

[tradingplaces] 31/10/2001 16:21

Uncle-Bob - your persistence has been rewarded. I have joined the short jedis at 193p with a target of 154p (the directors bought recently at 153p). I had to pay 3p per share borrowing charge to short the stock - there is no stock available at the moment - major shareholders are not selling maybe they are better informed ?

[marting1] 31/10/2001 11:40

Uncle Bob,
was going to join you and Goodfella but D4F dropped the price just after your thread came out - they're now going 185/195 against a market price of 190/195 so looks like they think it's only going one way too. 10pts just to beat the spread is a bit excessive! Will take another look later though

[uncle-bob] 31/10/2001 10:36

marting - thanks. I know I'm going on about it, but would like to encourage some debate - have yet to find a bull though.

[uncle-bob] 31/10/2001 10:29

GF-

LOL - yeah, I hope so too.

Flog it to Death I must: more awareness of the stock there must be. At a crucial point in the chart it is and 100p I want.

Regards

Rob

[marting1] 31/10/2001 10:25

excellent Uncle Bob - rofl must be worth a punt for that!
p.s great poem the other day as well.

[goodfella] 31/10/2001 10:21

Unk _BOB

Gawd you are flogging this one to death.

Ive joined you on the SHORT SIDE.

Hope it works out better than PUR

[uncle-bob] 31/10/2001 10:19

Short, I am! Yes, short. To be short like me, you desire? Difficult it is!

Words! Important they are. In the word Chrysalis, meaning there is! Consider it, you must!



After caterpillar, is formed Chrysalis. After Chrysalis, is formed butterfly.

A butterfly..





like a Jedi is!



Before Jedi, training there is. Before Butterfly, Chrysalis there must be! The young pupa, move it will, but wings it cannot have! Butterfly it is not. Only Chrysalis.

Thirty years a Chrysalis? Impossible I say! Profits it should have by then - or die, it must!

A loss next year? Careless, that is!

280 is the current PE? Dead is the Chrysalis! Butterfly it will never be! Stupid is the price!



This you must understand, before Short you become.

The Short Jedi.

[uncle-bob] 30/10/2001 11:00

Price not moving. Critical point in the chart. If it falls further it's heading for £1. Not sure how many more sells are needed to push it down further. 50K?

If anyone has anything nice to say about this stock, then let me know, because right now I can see little upside and the fundamentals stink! There should be a law against that kind of PE ratio.

[uncle-bob] 30/10/2001 08:41

As I said, early risers could have sold for 193p. Haven't seen a single buy trade for days.

I would also like to welcome the new sharks who have smelled blood and continue to nibble at CHS.

[uncle-bob] 30/10/2001 00:19

A FTSE 250 stock, yet not a single trade so far today. This is quite typical for CHS, and I expect it to move very quickly when the trades come in and people get their head round the insane fundamentals.

If anyone has good things to say about CHS, they are keeping very quiet.

[uncle-bob] 29/10/2001 22:19

The heavily traded stocks, shorters' faves, will open down tomorrow. CHS will probably open unchanged, as it tends not to get noticed. It will only start to fall as the trades mount up, but early risers should be able to sell a few for near to 193p.

This is a hidden gem of a short and was only recently

Rob

[uncle-bob] 29/10/2001 15:45

More sharks have nibbled, but the price has bizarrely not fallen further. Yet. Waiting patiently for the next shark attack. I myself have increased my short but am circling for more.

193-198 - that's the smallest spread you're likely to see and a great level to short IMHO.

[uncle-bob] 29/10/2001 15:16

Ok, some shorters have come along. Hello guys! A few trades knocked the price as predicted.

Blood has been drawn!

TIME FOR THE SHARKS!

Rob

[uncle-bob] 29/10/2001 14:11

I think the reason this stock is priced as high as it is, is due to its obscurity. The spread reflects the lack of volume, but I'm quite sure that if it was on the radar of a wider investment community it would have had a much harder time.

Doesn't digital radio technology increase the number of stations available? Like Digital TV? Look what happened to advertising rates on the internet when capacity increased.. indeed look at the suffering digital TV companies.

The thing that really gets me is the 2002 forward PE - 103 - makes no sense whatsoever!

Have a modest short on, will increase when the price starts to crumble. A half decent sized sell would hit the price straight away IMO.

Rob

[trufflehound] 29/10/2001 13:14

I agree this is definately a strange one, on the face of it the fundamentals
are all over the place, the only saving grace I can see is the radio stations.
they seem to be going from strength to strength,looks like it might hit
resistance at 230, then again it might start dropping now.I`ll keep an eye
on it for a couple of days, see what tanspires.
Regards.

[uncle-bob] 29/10/2001 11:25

Year Pretax Profit (£m) PE

1996....... -5.37 ............ -
1997....... -1.95 ............ -
1998....... -1.23 ............ -
1999....... -5.94 ............ -
2000....... 0.96 ............ 284
2001E...... -8.38 ............ -
2002E...... 3.43 ............ 103

CHS are into everything media-related: Music, Radio, TV production,
internet, Book publishing. They were formed in 1968 so should probably
be making a profit by now. But they are spread too thin - and are vulnerable
to the downturn in advertising. Most of their revenues are from the UK,
specifically from radio and TV. In September they announced radio revenues
below expectations and the stock took a beating. They also announced some
writing off of internet investments (hence the big expected loss this year).
It's recovered strongly but I can't see their problems going away - the
advertising downturn has yet to hit the UK like it has hit the USA.

On the plus side, their music publishing copyrights were used to secure a 15
year financing deal worth £60m. They also raised £27m 2 years ago, but that
money was intended specifically for dot com spending (they must have spent
something like that on the net so far).

The stock is very thinly traded and the spread is big. This means that
traders stay away, and the price moves easily.

I think 140 then 100 are on the cards, if it starts to fall now. No one is buying the stock. No one
talks about it on any BB. The PE is ridiculous - forward PE in 2003 of 103?!

DYOR!

Rob