Christian Salvesen Share Discussion Threads

[fastbuck] 23/8/2002 13:20

Another 2m sells today I believe - price up 1/2p - they must have found a buyer for them I guess. Imagine there is more selling to come.

[farmsted] 22/8/2002 00:26

I see that one of the Salvesen family is selling his Scotish farms and emigrating to New Zealand, he could be one of the sellers!

[fastbuck] 21/8/2002 00:47

Agree Bigmolly, one more large sell today, 264k at 74p. Price holding up well at the moment but I've got a feeling there maybe many more sells before we are finished.

[bigmolly] 20/8/2002 12:55

Funny, the market goes up 'a lot' and this is shafted.

I think there are huge problems here, pensions, profits, and staff migration,£8M profit, and divvy costing £18M, how much are the reserves.

Version 10 strategy underway. I sold today took the pain but seriously thinking of going short.

Custos still has circa 30m shares worth with half of cost, will they re bid cause even then it may be too mush. The Salvesen family must be wishing they had took the money.

As for the board, well when's the next profit warning.?

Hays/Exel/Wincanton gets my exposure to this sector going forward.

[royaloak] 16/8/2002 13:53

Fastbuck, excellent research, food for thought, thanks!

[fastbuck] 16/8/2002 13:30

Looks like more selling today

[fastbuck] 16/8/2002 09:06

You might be right royaloak.

Looking at the numbers the consensus is for 8.35p compared to 7.9p last year before exceptionals & goodwill. The consensus has been coming down over past weeks & months so a range of 8p - 8.35p maybe nearer. Either way marginally up on last year. That equates to £29m profit (PY £39m).

After goodwill & amortisation the numbers for last year were 0.8p and a profit after tax of £2m (PY £15m) not so impressive with more exceptional costs due this year. They should change the phrase exceptional to non-reoccuring as it happens every year that they dump more costs in it, not that they are alone in this.

Looking at the businesses:-

UK Food & Consumer - trading stable, pressure on margins (£22m Profit down 7%LY)
Euro Food & Consumer - good trading (£5m Profits)
UK Industrial - no recovery, trying to stem falling profits (£11m LY down 30%)
Euro Industrial - restructuring business on track (£3m Loss LY from profits)

Interest payable up to £7m, due to rise to £8m (net debt £118m)
Insurance due to go up another £1.5m from last years increase
Capex to rise
Tax charge to rise to 30% from 28%
Restructuring costs in Germany to be charged

Based on all of the above, the poor economy in Europe and Germany in particular I would personally be surprised if we see any improvement in the results this year. Dividends may well continue to be paid out of reserves rather than profits and give the share some support. If the dividend is cut the share will come under increasing pressure and head towards 50p quickly. I can't see that happening. I'd look towards a bottom of between 60p - 70p before recovering to 100p in the next two years on a rise in profits in March 2004.

IMO

[wyorke] 14/8/2002 22:26

when big sell, but share price not move lower, today up 1 p,
It is good signs. if big buyer, but price move to lower, it is bad signs.
only for you ref. market is big boys play area!.
I think price well be up. thanks.

[royaloak] 14/8/2002 14:56

fastbuck, i'm looking to accumulate this one, now on a low pe and they have the cash to pay a very healthy dividend, plus a healthy director share purchase since the agm which was optimistic!

I think it could go a touch lower, then I will start accumulating, I would have thought there were much better candidates than this to short, but I am happy to hear any negative points.

[fastbuck] 14/8/2002 14:06

No but another 150,000 shares went today. Will be researching this one as it has come on my radar that it could be a reasonable short.

[farmsted] 13/8/2002 16:19

Anyone know who's dumping ?

[farmsted] 27/5/2002 14:52

No news and yet we have seen some big share sales and the share price down 8% in a week, is it bail out time?

[bigmolly] 09/4/2002 22:39

Take a look at the families stake in the ST rich list and now another profits warning, and no hope of improvement in first half either...oh dear!!!

[warranty] 07/4/2002 09:28

velvetide - It's a while since your post reference TDG but if you take my advice you'll leave that one well alone.

Not saying why but just look elsewhere in the Transport sector, there are much safer plays, including Salvesen.

[bigmolly] 07/4/2002 09:20

CCNP...are you still in this one, I am and was wondering how you viewed the last statement on Germany and Spain and if you thought things had got any better? I have stayed in because of yield however if u accept that they over paid for the Spanish business then at some stage they must right off some goodwill, this with possible other problems in their industrial business could give problems in Q1!!!

Of course they are big in food and retailer based activity which may be proving very resiliant in their numbers.

I wonder what Custos is thinking!!!

[velvetide] 24/3/2002 23:42

tdg in the sector also looks quite interesting having undergone some rationalistion and expansion in europe

technically now off the botton of its trading range - but if one is of the opinion that the share are a turnaround situation then the prospects if it breaks its five year trading range are pretty handsome

underlying eps around 10, roce around 13% and not ex-div yet

imho/dyor but views welcome

[redd] 24/3/2002 22:15

Interesting comment that I cannot reply to as I do not know the sector average. Perhaps as you do know you will post it.

However, in my last copy of Company Refs it states ROCE 20.9% which seems extremely good to me especially as Sainsbury on the opposite page is only 11.9%.
Wincanton (transport company only) has a figure of 46.7% and it owns no assets and has lower margins and negative gearing.

It can be very difficult to compare like for like in the end in most sectors.

DYOR

[ccnp] 24/3/2002 16:41

If you are a believer in ROCE, you will find they underperform by a very significant factor. I cannot rememeber exactly but I have a feeling it is of the order of 10 to the logistics sector

PDYOR

[redd] 22/3/2002 20:12

Agree with the thread title. Something appears afoot. Price rose 1.5p near days end and on checking current trading and fundamentals this appears well undervalued. Bought in yesterday.

[bigmolly] 12/3/2002 21:53

Price rise: see ST rumour, Wincanton also up, but look at T & Bs results today.

[raym] 11/3/2002 18:10

sold half last week after static price so knew that price would rise bought into motionposter as things starting to look good ALL ABOARD!!!!!!!

[sholcroft] 11/3/2002 09:09

Anyone care to guess as to why this has jumped over 6% this morning.

[sholcroft] 06/3/2002 14:20

Spread has been widening over the past few days. Anyone got any ideas why ?

[ccnp] 05/3/2002 10:11

you have to admit Aspden and Rodderick lack bottle.

They are so confident of the value of the company that the best they can do is award themselves options rather than buy shares. How pathetic. The family should be ashamed of themselves for allowing them to continue in their jobs