China Nonferrous Gold Share Discussion Threads

[wanobi] 26/5/2021 11:14

I took 100K at 7.15p earlier today Mj, so I'm going with you again on this one :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 26/5/2021 11:10

fair enough Hari .. I know its not to everyone's tastes but, CNMIM will not wish to tie up their capital here ad infinitum.
They've been really patient and supportive of the mine and I'm sure will remain so until Phase II is completed and delivering to plan.
By & large the company has stuck to the development plan … avalanches & pandemics permitting & there is one thing you can normally assume about the Chinese is that their command/control mechanisms will continue to stick to that plan until they achieve the targets set.

As/when Phase II is completed and the plant is processing the nameplate tonnage, we will then get a first glimpse as to how the economies of scale will translate into cash.

Whilst the original timeline has clearly been thrown way off course and resulting debt higher than forecast, they will be going live on the next Phase with Gold prices circa 50% Higher than forecast/expected & the price of Gold is by far the biggest lever on the business model.
If gold was under the target $1,250/oz then there really would be reasons for genuine concern but, with gold averaging over $1,800+/oz and Operating costs circa $500-$600/oz, there is obviously a very large differential to generate solid cash.

At some point this year, I expect the sentiment here will begin to turn.

Yes, longer than I had anticipated but, I remain persuaded by the potential and look forward to hearing Phase II is achieved and that the company is able to re-start exploration - they have plenty more to go at on their doorstep & a very significant mine plant to feed for many years to come.

[hari] 26/5/2021 10:46

I say this respectfully

“ Yes, whilst it might appear continually weak, it has actually been gradually strengthening.”;
Have you looked at the one year chart, been in a downward trend .
Your running commentary on trades from 13p have been woefully wrong . The share has been falling for months .
I may also add you have called this wrong from 13p as well , and really misunderestimsted the huge debt burden .
But I am sure you will call it right eventually but it will be 2 years later than you expected

I am not expecting any fireworks yet, the progress on phase II is unknown .
The Co is one of the worst in releasing news updates, the quarterly updates never happened either

[mattjos] 26/5/2021 10:30

Yes, whilst it might appear continually weak, it has actually been gradually strengthening.
The last time the price shot up was when they confirmed they had achieved steady state Phase I production.
Combination of a resurgent Gold price and confirmation that Phase II has been implemented should see renewed strength in the share price this year …. if Gold goes back over $2,000 this year then, that combination will result in some very persuasive cashflow from the mine and then folk should quickly appreciate that the debt can/will be paid down quicker than most believe possible.

Just £27m Mkt Cap at present

[kingyon1] 26/5/2021 10:20

I assume there is a buyer lurking as can sell a shed load this morning.

[mattjos] 26/5/2021 08:24

June would be a great time to confirm Phase II is completed

[mattjos] 18/5/2021 12:23

that's a reasonable chunk just bought (136k)

[danmart2] 23/4/2021 00:10

As stated, I wish you all well and hope I am incorrect.
There is no need nor value in spreading animosity on this forum.

[mattjos] 21/4/2021 14:20

that's a very 'Correct' RNS re. LittleJohn. Not sure I've seen such strict adherence to rules before.

[novicetrade68] 21/4/2021 11:05

Agreeing with that, it was only a month ago the company renegotiated loan extensions, with the annual interest rate being reduced too + the gold sector always moves in ups and downs.

CNG of course had the horrible experience of seeing their initial cost piling up because of the 2019 avelanche and probably added a few years to their repayment schedule, but at least the mine is now operational as it should be in their second year and hopefully their AISC is now on track of going down/being stable instead of going up.

[danmart2] 20/4/2021 23:03

Not looking good, time to sell up and move on.
Another Chinese company on AIM about to implode, can only assume the Chinese loan has been called it in now that phase 2 is completed.

Lack of 2020 update the final straw.

All the best to existing share holders, I wish you well

[danmart2] 17/4/2021 07:28

2020 production update now overdue

[mattjos] 17/4/2021 02:28

Mkt Cap now just £27m ($37m)

[danmart2] 16/4/2021 11:37

Chinese debt is a significant risk

[elpirata] 16/4/2021 10:51

looking interesting for a punt at this level, the problem being weighed down by (connected party) chinese debt

I make enterprise value circa £270m, is that right?

[hari] 13/4/2021 18:01

Also need to be informed of CNG’s AISC costs.

[hari] 13/4/2021 17:52

Just seen MTL’s Q1 update
Market not impressed though.
Market cap approx $30m now .
Approx has $120m debt.
For the full year ending 2021, Co are forecasting gold production of between 64,000 and 69,000 ounces with an AISC of approximately US$1,275 per ounce

Now compare this to CNG’s figures ,I cannot see why CNG’s it’s market cap should be any higher than MTL’s which is approx the same .

[mattjos] 13/4/2021 13:59

someone still seems determined to sell into the slightest sign of any strength in the price.

[shaf200] 12/4/2021 18:09

Priced to go bust now...

[danmart2] 12/4/2021 16:19

Share price plummeting

[mattjos] 10/4/2021 01:42

volume is rising as the spread is finally becoming reasonable at 0.1p .. as it was back in June 2019.
no idea just how cheap this will go but, at these levels i can't help being a buyer on days when the spread is as it was today.
At £29m mkt cap, just how cheap do buyers want it to get to?

[danmart2] 09/4/2021 18:22

Lack of RNS updates is frustrating especially as the news regarding phase 2 is likely to be positive

[novicetrade68] 09/4/2021 16:24

More volume as of late, at least another positive..

[mattjos] 09/4/2021 15:19

me too … fgsake, how cheap does it need to be ??