China Nonferrous Gold Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 17/11/2021 15:01

the longer this remains overlooked with Gold at these prices, the bigger the resulting move is going to be on next Results.

[mattjos] 16/11/2021 09:14

Gold continuing its ascent towards $1,900

[wanobi] 11/11/2021 09:19

yes, gold looking very strong,,, at long last!!! grrr LOL LOL :-) :-),,, GLA holders, cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 11/11/2021 08:52

Might have to increase the average gold price I have assumed for H2 ($1,785)

[mattjos] 10/11/2021 21:55

Thought as much. May not have been the best timing given the price reaction in Gold today but, will all depend on where else you deploy the cash.

[wanobi] 09/11/2021 23:32

hi Mj, yes, I took some off the table today for activities elsewhere,, all done for now though, not intending to lighten up any further.. and may well be back adding again soon... Cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 09/11/2021 22:19

looks like someone threw the towel in here today and dumped 500k in 5 x 100k tranches over 9 minutes. none of them AT trades so, I assume it was a PI.
Wanobi, was that you?

at 8.6p the Mkt Cap ($44.7m) is just 63% of my forecast 2021 FY Revs ($70.7m).

I doubt the seller was interested in 'value' … more a case of just getting out in a hurry

[hari] 09/11/2021 15:54

Still one eye on this
Buy under 9.5p right now
So we discount that theory today
Think you are looking too hard to find a bull case for shares to rise
Lack of market and buying interest is too evident . Just the same few PIs here buying all the time
The Co reporting and coverage let’s it down
You can look at all the other metrics but the enormous debt is holding it back ..

Step change in sentiment will only happen when production targets increase substantially.
Still in the dark about timelines of phase 2. It is ridiculous now for how long this has been discussed

Any news due positive or negative I wonder because when a sudden drop happens it could be either

[eke] 06/11/2021 22:52

From my favorite news source...Have to translate from Russian into English.
May be a few snippets of interest here..


Gold production in Tajikistan for the first nine months of this year compared to the same period in 2020 increased by 8.2%, according to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the country.

The volume of extraction, production and reserves of metal "number 1" by weight or by value in Tajikistan has not been disclosed: the relevant ministries and departments classify such information as state secrets.

At the same time, the overwhelming amount of "secret" metal in the republic is mined and processed by foreign companies, mainly Chinese.

More details: hxxps://asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/economic/20211105/vipusk-zolota-v-tadzhikistane-uvelichili-na-82
Earlier, sources close to the Ministry of Industry reported that from 2014 to 2019, gold production in Tajikistan increased more than 4 times: from 2 tons in 2014 to almost 8.1 tons in 2019.

There is no information on gold mining and production in 2020. According to some reports, production slowed last year due to the pandemic, as many Chinese workers returned home during the Chinese New Year holidays and were unable to return to their jobs in Tajikistan due to the outbreak.
The leadership of the Main Department of Geology under the Government of Tajikistan at the beginning of this year announced the search for new gold deposits.

Earlier, the leadership of this department reported that the volume of the approved reserves of gold at the country's deposits is about 500 tons.
Meanwhile, with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic before the end of the first quarter of this year, Tajikistan was forced to sell part of the country's gold reserves due to a decrease in foreign exchange inflows due to remittances from labor migrants.

According to official statistics, in 2020, precious metals were exported in the amount of $ 690 million, and in the first quarter of 2021 - $ 709 million. The export of these products has been suspended since April this year.

[mattjos] 29/10/2021 13:41

less and less stock coming available under 11p and what was offered at 10.5p today has been taken & now the online Bid is 10.5p

[wanobi] 28/10/2021 19:14

nice one Mj, great spot, excellent work, many thanx, cheers Wan :-) :-)

[mattjos] 28/10/2021 19:00

Even the Stockopedia software has finally cottoned on to this company now.

Stockopedia report 31.1.21

Mkt Cap: £33.5m
EV: £297m

Quality: 21
Value: 70
Momentum: 1
Stockrank: 16


Stockopedia report 28.10.21

Mkt Cap: £40.92m
EV: £303.92

Quality: 60
Value: 88
Momentum: 36
Stockrank: 66


That's a significant change in the overall rating but, the Mkt Cap is now noticeably lagging behind where it should be given the rise in Revs, profitability & debt reduction.

I advised back in early 2020 that we'd need to see a further two HY results before the reported figures settle down and investors would see a clearer picture.

Mkt Cap has risen and over same time, the Value metric has also risen, which seems a bit odd at first blush but, this is how it's going to keep moving, imo. The market is not 'looking forward' here in any way whatsoever and so the valuation gap will simply keep getting bigger & bigger & bigger with every passing month.

Folk just cannot see past the headline debt figure & so few are bothered to even try and do the basic maths.

This is cheap. Too damn cheap to ignore if you do the maths &, despite a 22% increase in the Mkt Cap since 31.1.21, it's cheaper now than it was nine months ago.

I calculate we're near 30% below current fair value as at end October & am happy to keep tight hold and simply await the market reach same conclusion .. by which time, we'll no doubt be a further 20-30% below fair value.


(Management are modelling their internal financial forecasts assuming just $1,600/oz Gold price. I doubt we'll see that price any time soon.)

[wanobi] 26/10/2021 14:56

all very detailed and time consuming stuff to get the best possible purchase price,,, fair play to him/her :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 26/10/2021 14:54

artful sod is still buying at up to 11p.
He had 20k just then at 11p and at same time dropped 20 shares on the Bid as a signal to keep it pegged there for now.

Still wants more at 11p or under it seems

[mattjos] 26/10/2021 13:26

Moved up over 1p on small buying

[mattjos] 26/10/2021 13:25

Bid now 10.6

[wanobi] 26/10/2021 13:23

how we looking on L2 today Mj, is there much stock about ?

many thanx.

Cheers
Wan :-)

[wanobi] 25/10/2021 15:26

:-) :-) many thanx for sharing Mj, much appreciated, cheers Wan :-) :-)

[mattjos] 23/10/2021 17:04

Try to show visually how (to date) H2 has been stronger than H1, each year of production since Pakrut was declared operational.
It's obviously significantly influenced by Price of Gold, as any Gold mining operation is.
The other point of note is the cross over this first half where Gross Profit exceeded cost of Sales.

There is so much leverage in this business & that will put off a lot of investors but, if it is now finally truly dawning on people that the combination of inflation and increasingly negative real rates of interest are here for quite a while then, the Gold price should finally start to break upwards from $1,800 & I believe we'll see over $2,000/oz within the next 6 months, particularly if the FED concentrates firstly on it's Taper operation before determining whether or not to actually start raising interest rates - I don't believe it either can or will do both at the same time.

Edit: Have added a further metric "Finance Costs" & had a go at conservatively forecasting H2 2021 on the basis of:
23,300 oz Gold Sold at Ave. of $1,775 / oz to give Revs of $41.4m
Cost of Sales $20m
Gross Profit $21m
Finance Costs falling to $5m
Profit before Tax of $5m
Total Debt Falling by $30m to $329m

[wanobi] 23/10/2021 10:12

many thanx Mj, cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 23/10/2021 00:25

H2 is the stronger half so, I do expect a more obvious upward momentum to resume as we cross into November.
Volume has been steadily dropping this last 4 weeks and despite best efforts by the buyer to 'fudge' the closing auction every day with miniscule MKT orders & try to keep the price pegged back in the 9's, no one's been falling for that stunt for a while now.

At some point, there will be surely be others who decide to take an interest in the stock, particularly if the Gold price continues to show strength and/or we finally hear they have pushed ahead with the planned Phase II expansion.

Such a pity we don't get Q'ly Production & Financial updates from now on, as I am sure we are well passed the sentiment lows for the company.
Achieving stable production and then starting to see that debt load begin to come down is such a notable achievement for any mining company. I draw the analogy to a skier who has slowly endured the long, arduous & sweaty climb to the top of the mountain and has now got their skis on and is gradually starting to pick up speed on the downhill section.
With every passing week & month, our debt is being chipped away .. imperceptibly to begin with but, every $ off the capital sum reduces the interest and every saved $ due on interest can be channelled to more repayment of the capital sum.
What starts slowly, soon accelerates and becomes ever more apparent to others as subsequent updates are issued.
A good H2 this year and it will be so much more obvious when these figures are released next year.
I'm sitting tight & doing my best to keep adding as/when we see a bored seller move on however, The shrivelling volume suggests we may be running out of sellers in this price range so, interested to see how the dynamic may alter in November.

[mattjos] 22/10/2021 23:31

This is the final processing & tailings storage site. Satellite updated the imagery 26th May this year.

(The dark blue buildings, bottom right, are new since the last satellite images in 2020).

Appears to be plenty, plenty of space in this facility for many years ahead:

[mattjos] 22/10/2021 14:26

Gold finally back over $1,800 today

[mattjos] 19/10/2021 09:55

still a bit left at under 11p today