China Medical Share Discussion Threads

[andysburns] 31/3/2010 22:16

man the chart looks bearish.

[azalea] 30/3/2010 17:14

A 3500 buy @ 470, late in the day should produce a mark up tomorrow.

[azalea] 29/3/2010 16:06

Hmmn!
MM(if my memory serves me right, only 1 online)could be getting nervous -marking the share price up 10p after the last trade(1k). A few more of those and we could see it start to motor.

[azalea] 29/3/2010 10:04

Following this morning's buy of 5k and associated 5p rise, we now have clearer picture on the share price and spread in the run up to FY results - 15/4.

[azalea] 25/3/2010 16:48

A weird day in terms of the trades, the prices and the 'indicated' spread. The two buys at 15:21 and 15.41hrs takes the share price back up to where I came in, despite a supposed rise of just 5p. Content so far with the move back up.

[azalea] 25/3/2010 07:44

Let's wait and see what the results tell us next month.

[radarlove] 24/3/2010 20:38

andy,

Yep, the chart looking a little sick, at present. As you say, an excellent buying opportunity ahead if the share price falls further towards 400p.

The worst case scenario would be a 50% retracement (occurred to EROS recently) from April '09 low (120p) to February high (590p) = 470 divided by 2 = 235 - 590 = taking it back down to around 355p/360p; but if azalea reads this, I don't believe that will happen. :o)

[andysburns] 24/3/2010 13:20

now knocking on the door of resistance at 435 - a break through could lead to some short term weakness in the the share price but also provide an excellent buying opportunity for the long termers

[radarlove] 18/3/2010 14:06

azalea,

'IC' gave WCC a sell because it is delisting from AIM in May and moving to the HK Exchange. A number of intrepid PIs are now setting up foreign accounts in anticipation of this move as the general consensus is, the share price could easily double from here, based on the present PE of 5/6; whereas on the HK, the average PE for a fast growing cement company is 12-15.

Re: CMSH, looking at the figures, it is a better buy than HCM, although I suspect the latter has institutional backing and is more respected in the city.

[radarlove] 18/3/2010 11:35

azalea,

Thanks for that results date.

It does seem a little strange when HCM is roaring ahead that CMSH is falling; when, as you say, the update was so positive.

I sold around 400p back in November and then foolishly didn't have the money to get back in. So, I am kicking myself for that and why I'm back given the recent falls. I bought a few yesterday and will be closely monitoring now.

My only concern is that due to the steep share price rise from 125p to the highs of 590p in less than a year, the MMs could well drop the price further; with the present company's growth already factored in.

I accept that 30%+ annual growth is no mean achievement but others like WCC, CHNS and ACHL are all growing much faster and their PEs are far less. On the other hand, a proposed HK listing and successful R&D, could offer further upside.

Let us see if the 450p level holds.

[azalea] 18/3/2010 08:59

radarlove
I also do not have a P/E for CMSH. However, as you rightly suggest there can be no comparison between CMSH and companies like WCC and ACHL. Equity Research last reported (26/1/10), positive trading supports strong rerating, R&D spun off, leaving sales/marketing/distribution focus. Possible H.Kong listing has valuation implications"

For no apparent reason, the share price is now circa 140p off its high(597p) despite the strong update just 2 months ago. With FY results confirmed for the 13/4, I would be very surprised to see them fall any lower and FWIW I have added this morning.

[radarlove] 17/3/2010 20:54

I am not clear what the forward PE is, at present. But when compared with WCC (around 5-6) and ACHL (around 8-10), it seems a lot higher. Although, one expects pharmaceuticals to be so.

Perhaps, you could kindly enlighten me? :o)

[azalea] 17/3/2010 17:18

radarlove
I am not aware of any further news regarding the earlier mention of a possible HK listing; to that end I suspect we will need to wait for the FY results to see if anything more is said. The fall back this week has been disappointing. What PE are you attributing to CMSH?

[radarlove] 17/3/2010 16:50

azalea,

Has anymore information come out since January about the company's HK listing? CMSH present PE is far higher than the other Chinese AIM companies already listed. Do you think the move will have much effect on the share price?

[azalea] 13/3/2010 13:04

There are some interesting similarities between CMSH and HCM that might be worth highlighting. Both, are Aim listed China based companies in the pharmaceutical sector, HCM(51.3m shares)is focused on traditional Chinese medicines, whilst CMSH(47.4m)is focused on modern medicines. Both have very large percentage of shares held by a small number of investors.Both have seen their share price double in the last 6 months.

HCM full year figures were announced on the 4/3, which despite showing a number of very significant improvements across the board, still resulted in a ptx loss of $5.01m. Nevertheless, the share price has since risen 25% ( 200 to 250p) with the IC(12/3) giving a buy recc.

CMSH(2009 Interims -T/O, Ptx and Eps, well up on 2008) reports FY results in April with a consensus forecast of an increase 50% over 2008 and in 2010 a circa 30% on 2009. CMSH is a Forbes 100 top 100 Enterprise company with most potential in 2009. With 700 full time staff, covering 5,400 hospitals in 280 cities, it is aiming to become the largest pharmaceutical sales and marketing service provider in China and has begun to recruit 300 graduate trainees.

Against this background and assuming a fair comparison with HCM, CMSH should see its share price increase conservatively by 25% on/after FY results. DYOR.

[azalea] 10/3/2010 10:20

A small but steady tick up every day this week, with 1.3bn potential customers, a trading update forecasting a y-o-y growth of circa 32% and the possibility of a H.K listing being reaffirmed in the FY results next month, CMSH share price could at least regain its previous heights going forward. DYOR

[dasv] 08/3/2010 17:51

yep - could well see that. well played.

[azalea] 08/3/2010 17:26

dasv
Unless the MM were doing different 'bids'by phone to that online, then all the trades were 'buys', at no time did my dummy 'sells' online achieve more than 475p.Interestingly, there was a late posting of a trade for 2500 @ 500p. I expect a further tick up tomorrow.

[dasv] 08/3/2010 13:02

Chart looks good to me for more upside at some point azalea. Good luck with your purchase. I am sticking with my holding (have not added yet).

[azalea] 08/3/2010 08:32

After a positive update with FY results circa 6 weeks away and the sight of WCC share price continuing to roar away on the back of excellent results and a near term H.Kong listing, I have added 2k here in the hope that CMSH can repeat WCC listing. My buy is shown as a sell, however the share price is very sensitive either way and is now up 17.5p on my purchase.

[azalea] 01/3/2010 14:44

Diving again, anything close to 400p and I will buy.

[dasv] 25/2/2010 12:22

incidentally WCC showed up on a technical screen I did this week. break out of double top on log Point and figure:-

[azalea] 25/2/2010 12:10

Yes, that is the consensus of PI opinions on the WCC thread- where I have recently posted my thought for FY 2010. The increase in the value of the RMB and the increasing weakening of the £, should also be positive for China based but UK listed shares.

[dasv] 25/2/2010 10:55

azalea thanks - so WCC benefitting from anticipation of listing perhaps.