Chemring Share Discussion Threads

[bravo1] 01/11/2012 12:10

Buywell - you didnt see this coming at all , thats the easiest thing to say with todays hindsight !
The charts only show what has happened -not what will happen, its like a thermometer, it only tells you whats happening presently, temperature wise.
But if the weather forecast says we are in for a cold snap, -thats because conditions have changed and the resulting drop in the thermometer reading has nothing to do with the thermometer itself.

I dont own a watch , but I know if I tell people its twelve o clock - I know I will be right at least twice a day- and some people may think I have some sort of gift.

If you knew this was coming because your charts told you, then you should be sitting on a fortune today as you would have shorted the share ,Instead you come on here talking fluent Boll*cks .

[daytraders] 01/11/2012 11:48

lol, i keep telling you about your charts, you make the lines go where you want them too, they never make sence, think you need to go on a charting course.

[buywell2] 01/11/2012 11:37

You should use charts more ... this was what you did not like




The chart ... and hence I ..... saw this coming

Just like I think sub 200p is coming here


but

dyor

[bulltradept] 01/11/2012 11:23

buywell2 1 Nov'12 - 11:10 - 768 of 768 (Filtered)

I saw this poster spreading his sh1te over on the CEY board, this is the best way to view him!

As for CHG, I'd have expected it to have fallen to around the current level if the T/O were not to happen which may mean if the T/O now doesn't happen I'm not sure where the price would go..

Good Luck All longs, I may be joining you soon!

[buywell2] 01/11/2012 11:10

One would have thought that Chemring was trying to get the deal done and dusted before the worms started coming out the wood work


How many worms are left in ?



When the Directors off loaded in Jan 2012 was the time to jump ship



Chartwise this could now hit 180p in the coming weeks

[jodi17qad] 01/11/2012 11:03

I am interested to know where you found those figures Varies.

REFS shows normalised EPS for 2012 of 47.2p reduced by 6p following the August profits warning and now reduced again by 13p. Next year the projected EPS was 56.8p, but now reduced I imagine. DYOR

[royaloak] 01/11/2012 10:45

Agree varies. I have just bought these , I am guessing the Bidder will not walk away, but now see this as an ideal opportunity, could be wrong, but for me a risk worth taking.

[varies] 01/11/2012 10:36

Am I right in thinking that EPS for the year just ended had been expected to be about 65p and this is now reduced to 52p ?
If so, the shares look cheap but, of course, the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan must reduce the sales prospects for anti-IED devices considerably.
The next few months look difficult but the second half of 2012/13 could see a recovery and if CHG can make 30p per share for the full year and 60p in 2013/14, 260p will seem very cheap indeed.

[salpara111] 01/11/2012 10:09

Very nearly played this on the t/o expectation but mercifully held off.
The question is where would the share price go if the bidder walks away.
Even if the bid goes ahead I would imagine it will be a number starting with a 3 now.

[buywell2] 01/11/2012 09:49

Note the green lines

when this drops it does so quite a bit

[simon gordon] 01/11/2012 09:47

FT:

The trend for profit warnings from companies exposed to falling government spending and the faltering economy became more established as Chemring Group said its annual profit would miss expectations. The maker of defence equipment said delays with new contracts and problems with existing ones meant it reduced its earnings per share forecast by 26 per cent.

"We are sceptical as to how items such as the delayed receipt of a multiyear contract can really change the operating results by over 20 per cent so close to the end of the year," said Guy Brown, analyst at Oriel Securities

"Today's statement highlights how badly the business has been managed and the operational results as a consequence."

Chemring remains in talks with Carlyle, the US private equity group, about a possible takeover. The profit warning followed news in late October of the departure of David Price as its chief executive. The resignation was seen as a sign that the prospects of the deal could be fading. The Takeover Panel deadline on for a firm offer to be made is November 9.

[jodi17qad] 01/11/2012 09:37

In fact, Bravo1, buyers seem to be streaming in at the moment, taking advantage of our discomforture.

[jodi17qad] 01/11/2012 09:14

I think you may be right Bravo1.

Whilst the take over is now probably dead in the water, the arrival of the new CEO may be a good time to buy, and I would if I was not so heavily loaded and, like you, well under water, having been well in profit.

I think we are now in for the long haul!

[targatarga] 01/11/2012 09:04

Just imagine standing outside your local hostel giving away large bundles of cash. Wouldn't be long before you'd be mugged!

[fangorn2] 01/11/2012 08:58

At least it wasn't suspended Bravo :)
But feel your pain. Hope there's a decent rebound for you.

[bravo1] 01/11/2012 08:46

OUCH !! Now that has made my eyes water, I might as well stand outside my local supermarket giving five pound notes away at this rate :(
I expect the world to end at any minute.

I wonder if carlyle group have delayed their offer in light of the knowledge of this situation- If they didnt know about it - then they will probably walk away - or walk the bid price down accordingly.
I am sticking with this now - too far underwater to sell - may actually be a good time to buy some this morning as it will be oversold on the back of this news.IMHO of course

[fangorn2] 01/11/2012 07:59

Hmm profit warning to start the day....

[daytraders] 01/11/2012 07:46

ouch, dam it.

[bravo1] 29/10/2012 09:23

we are all doomed ... none of this really matters in the long run we are all going to die anyway so why worry ?? :)
Just thought I would cheer everybody up.

[hvs] 29/10/2012 07:44

NO BID like I said so may time.

See it tank.

[aleks_atanasov] 24/10/2012 14:00

ards - aha i see you are an interesting chap.

" I have learned that when you fall in love with a share "

thats why i always call them dogs! so that i dont care for them.

there are still trading opportunities in the market, but way less than before the crisis, no wonder banks are shedding their equity divisions like crazy.

with fewer market inefficiencies that means a trader must trade across many exchanges, the mantra is more shares more opportunities.

[ards] 24/10/2012 13:32

Shares in defence group Chemring dropped after its CEO David Price resigned with immediate effect. He will be replaced by Mark Papworth, a former Wood Group executive.

Speculation in the market is that Price's exit signals that US private equity firm Carlyle's takeover bid could be collapsing. "It would appear odd to appoint a new CEO with the belief the group is going to be taken over within a matter of weeks," said Guy Brown from Oriel Securities.