Chelford Share Discussion Threads

[aspex] 22/12/2006 07:31

Trading - "Below market expectations and below the level for 2005."
They would have done a miracle to beat the market after the shortfall of the first half.

No doubt the MMs will attempt to screw it down further before releasing the pressure.

[pc4900074200] 14/12/2006 11:08

4 minutes later and up it goes 2p.

LOL

pc

Edit: Morning MM's are you watch these posts?

LOL

[pc4900074200] 14/12/2006 11:05

Are they backtracking now?

The 6.6% drop this morning did not
encourage any sellers but did the reverse.

How long will the offer stay @ 01:88p?

pc

[pc4900074200] 14/12/2006 10:19

Just about to post that there must be a late trade
coming up and there there it is.

10 x NMS.

Two hours+ late and not marked as L.

They look to be very short on shares to trade.

pc

[pc4900074200] 14/12/2006 09:51

Mm's really pushing this, looks like the
01:80p low will be gone by close.

pc

[tole] 14/12/2006 08:50

Maybe got wind of another so-called profit warning. Trading statement due mid Jan I believe. Be interesting to see if we make a new low or hold the 180p

[largeman] 14/12/2006 08:47

MM Games again - no trades - yet down 9p. This is starting to smell!

[glasshalfull] 13/12/2006 20:14

t.i.m - Thanks for that.

Any particular reason how you came to this conclusion?
I'd be extremely interested to know.


Kind regards,
GHF

[welsheagle] 13/12/2006 19:54

TSE does not look overvalued considering PE, cash flow and cash in bank.

[this_is_me] 13/12/2006 10:25

I think KBT is a growing, undervalued company (like CHR), while TSE and MXM are overvalued.

[aspex] 13/12/2006 07:58

About time - nearly 3 months since the last new business!

Wrights Pies orders SSI TROPOS end-to-end supply chain solution
New £234K system to provide full stock visibility for expanding company

SSI, a Chelford Group company and provider of specialist ERP and supply chain management solutions for regulated industries, has announced a £234K order for its TROPOS ERP solution from Wrights Pies Ltd, a leading UK manufacturer of pies, savouries and confectionery. The solution, which includes modules designed specifically for the food industry, will enable managers, for the first time, to instantly and precisely monitor every aspect of the production process, and provide the company with complete stock visibility.

"We anticipate that the TROPOS implementation will impact on everything - we will be able to keep tabs on each part of our production line, we will have complete control of stock and ingredient levels and the firm's running costs will be substantially reduced."

( Neville Caruthers, Operations manager, Wrights Pies)

Wrights Pies will also integrate the TROPOS Business Intelligence and Reporting solution across its extensive UK supply chain which includes two separate manufacturing plants and thirteen retail branches. Staff at any point of the supply chain will have easy access to detailed analysis of purchasing, stock, and customer information to support decision-making all the way through the company.

The company has also implemented the TROPOS financial module based on CODA, to create accurate financial forecasts of ingredient supply and future sales, and to allow the company to produce regular business models to sustain business growth. Wrights Pies has recently invested £3million in modern pie and freezing lines at its Crewe-based factory and plans to open 50 new retail outlets across the West Midlands over the next five years.

"The main reason for implementing the TROPOS solution is control - over our production cycle, stock levels and financial planning," commented Neville Caruthers, Operations Manager at Wrights Pies. "With our old system, the process of regularly reviewing factory performance and product quality was complex and time consuming. TROPOS will give us this information instantly, all through a single interface that can be accessed at any stage of the supply chain - from the factories right through to the satellite depots and retail branches. Unlike other ERP solutions, SSI allowed us to choose exactly the right system modules for our business, which are tailored for the food industry.

"Wrights Pies is going through a major phase of expansion, so we needed a powerful ERP solution that would give us complete stock visibility and control throughout the enterprise, and also provide us with the relevant knowledge to plan the future of the business. In the end, we anticipate that the TROPOS implementation will impact on everything - we will be able to keep tabs on each part of our production line, we will have complete control of stock and ingredient levels and the firm's running costs will be substantially reduced," Neville Caruthers continued.

TROPOS will provide Wrights Pies with the unique combination of software, technology, experience, services and future-proofing that will help ensure a seamless transition to greater and enhanced automation of purchasing and supply chain management. The platform gives each user easy access to the organisation's information in a controlled manner - reports can be rapidly produced, trends can be analysed, and comprehensive information can be obtained to support decision making at all points in the supply chain.

The TROPOS ERP system is specifically tailored for companies in the food industry and includes sector-specific features which address issues around traceability, food hygiene and perishable goods. SSI's client base in the sector includes Fox's confectionery, George Adams and Cauldron Foods.

"Companies with extensive product ranges, such as Wrights Pies, are constantly realising the benefits of upgrading to an integrated, end-to-end supply chain solution," added Neville Merritt, Group Marketing Director, Chelford Group. "TROPOS provides comprehensive visibility of the supply chain, which means stock control and business analysis become straightforward processes - removing the delay and potential errors involved with paper-based decision-making. This results in substantial business benefits for the company, and establishes a secure base for future growth."

[glasshalfull] 12/12/2006 18:51

bookbroker - sensible thoughts welcome.

A few thoughts regarding Chelford and their peers KB3, Touchstone and Maxima, all of which are all trading on low valuations (jotted this down quickly so unable to evidence at the present time).
Computer Software (CSW) also worthy of research but not compared here.

TSE and MXM are (still) the stand out IMO
- Disclosure, I have substantial holdings in both.

TSE will possibly produce EPS of 18p-20p this year placing them on a current year PER of 9 or 10.
Net cash of £2m after providing for earnouts.
Positive interims and outlook statement made recently.

MXM appear to be making very good strategic acquisitions at low earnings enhancing prices. Upgraded EPS of 23p pencilled in for this year, again on a PER of 10, despite their recent rise.

This brings me back to Chelford and KB3.
Think both are approaching decent buying opportunities.
Chelford has the edge for me although I've been impressed by the significant director buying over at KBT during the recent placing. KBT is in the midst of a takeover for Sirvis (don't know too much about them).
KBT doesn't look such great value due to incresed tax charge this year, so another sitting on a low valuation of 11 for this year falling to single digit the following.

Something doesn't sit quite right for me with KB3. Large exposure to retail - lumpy contracts - and not entirely convinced by manufacturing side. Also had quite a few placings and it doesn't appear that they are producing such strong cashflow which is clearly evident in the other three.

Chelford has the dubious distinction of being the only only one to issue a profit warning, albeit a one off, now rectified business practice.
Nice strong outlook statement but the market won't - IMHO - re rate until they produce results given the slip this year.
Also with SAP providing a cautious outlook then this also suggests caution regarding CHR as an investment given their significant exposure.

When I compare CHR with MXM & TSE (discounted KBT at the current price), I don't find the outstanding value with CHR that I thought I might.
Yes, exceptional growth forecast next year (possibly the lowest forward PER out of the four mentioned here), cash positive, strong cashflow but the same is true of TSE, who continually perform - with the strongest partner presence for Microsoft in the UK.
Microsoft seem to be the fastest expanding in the respective markets covered by all 4 mentioned here and therefore both TSE and KBT would be the major beneficiaries IMO.
Same applies in comparing CHR with MXM.
MXM are having their EPS forecasts updated continuously - so even after their impressive rise recently, they are still trading on a forecast PER of 8.5 for next year also with excellent cash generation.

These are my thoughts (a lot from memory due to time constraints) so please DYOR.

Apologies for any inaccuracies.


Regards,
GHF

[bookbroker] 12/12/2006 17:07

Time this stock ticked up , not down, it's getting tedious. Sensible thoughts welcomed.

[welsheagle] 03/12/2006 17:28

From November's 'Company Refs', when price was 215p:-
a/ Prospective PE ratio of 9.51 (based on one broker forecast recommending 'overweight').
b/ Forecast growth in eps of 28.8%.
c/ Positive cash flow per share of 26.2p.
d/ Net cash per share of 12.2p.
e/ Negative gearing of 8.03%.
f/ Price to sales ratio of 1.01.
g/ Turnover up from £7.81m to £14.5m in last five years.

[pc4900074200] 01/12/2006 17:15

They play this share as though it's on a set of scales.

As several sell so the shares or most of them are snapped up.

Today you could look at the trades and if it was not for being
marked as an 'O' and the time, you could think that the drop
was to encourage sells to fill that 5K buy.

Just one good RNS and four or five buy trades without any selling
and this would fly.

I tend to think that the MM's are trading the same few shares
'round and round'.

pc

[this_is_me] 29/11/2006 19:23

disappointing slide in the price on little volume.

[aspex] 29/11/2006 19:16

Needs some more business gains.
I would be curious to know how the recent bolt-ons are really performing.

[pc4900074200] 29/11/2006 16:00

That would be a large 'cup and handle' in the chart world?

pc

[money4me] 29/11/2006 15:42

right enough, hoping this recent rise/fall is the start of another significant (but not straight line) move up

[pc4900074200] 29/11/2006 11:29

Looking at the chart I think you placed the point in the wrong place 4me?

More like pound swings over a few months.

pc

[money4me] 21/11/2006 15:37

not unusual for this to move in 10p+ swings with no specific reason/news

[bookbroker] 21/11/2006 15:15

It takes time for moving averages to catch up with a share price move such as Chelfords, so it is logical for there to be an adjustment. The fundamentals for this co. look good, they are in the business of improving logistics handling via their software applications, the co. has hopefully corrected the problem of fixed price contracts and and continue to be optomistic on revenue visibility. Its prospects still look good, it is a thinly traded stock.

[largeman] 21/11/2006 14:15

Er - no it isn't!

Down Friday and again today! OK admittedly not to previous lows (yet). I'm away on my hols at the mo so not able to spend the time analysing the moves so any other input would be appreciated. BTW I do hold and would really like to see this one do well but I can't work out what the MMs are up to except lining their own pockets.

[this_is_me] 09/11/2006 16:03

Yes, recovery continuing.

[this_is_me] 09/11/2006 16:03

Yes, recovery continuing.