Centrica Share Discussion Threads

[hiddendepths] 23/2/2018 08:41

I added yesterday when the rise all but vanished. Watching the weather forecasts avidly now. Looks like next week will be the coldest for five years at least. Easy to forget that Centrica income is still weather-sensitive. Heating demand versus temperature is not linear. When it gets really cold, demand for gas flies.

[andyj] 23/2/2018 00:45

Not my best decision to reduce my holding during the surge yesterday, but now means I can put them in the forget pile. I think Conn deserves credit for recognising our frustration in his opening speech. 170 here we come, now why did we not all buy more at 125?

[mastey] 22/2/2018 22:05

Gents , pleased to see a nice kick up for you today. Must admit I was not brave enough to take that punt when in the 1.26 range .

Good luck to you all and I hope the rise back up continues.

Sincerely Mastey

[careful] 22/2/2018 21:01

I saw Conn talk on Sky.
He seemed capable.

He said there was lots of competition and because of new technology they did not need as many people.
He handled this sensitive topic very well.
When talking about the price cap he was very careful not to say anti government provocative points, but did say it reduced competition and was a factor in the redundancies.
He even suggested that the government expected them to reduce overheads to achieve the cap.
HMG have a point. One of the benefits of privatisation, although hard on employees, is that private companies must shed unwanted staff.
I thought he performed very well.
It would be stupid to fall out with the government at this stage, it would be no way to get a deal.

[jpjohn1] 22/2/2018 20:44

Seeing Conn speak today he warned of government interference on price capping then said there would be 4,000 redundancies, because of there interference. Hopefully they heard what he said and take note, but I would not hold my breath too much

[careful] 22/2/2018 19:55

If we are a little optimistic and assuming a sensible price cap,
CNA, after declaring it will have discipline and cut overheads,
could justify a £2.0+ price target.

RMG price surge after good results has proven that Corbyn and his nationalisation plans are not taken seriously. Not yet,at least.

There are years before the next election and even after that, in the unlikely event of a Corbyn win, then rail nationalisation will be his first priority and headache.
Legal challenges from overseas investors, collapsing stirling, a crashing stock market. He will have enough to think about.
He would probably never get around to CNA.
Another thing is that he would almost certainly stay in the EU customs union.
That means he would not be allowed to nationalise.

The political risk therefore comes from the Tories and aggressive regulation.
My guess is that these will end up being reasonably fair.

[aleman] 22/2/2018 19:27

yump - pull up any individual station records from anywhere in the world and you will see it was warm in the 30s and 40s, cooled in the 60s and 70s, warmed in the 90s and early noughties and then some show cooling again. The overall trend is usually pretty flat since the 30s for anywhere. Then the NOAA, NASA, University of East Anglia, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, drop out extreme readings (mostly warm ones in old data), adjust the rest for a host of reasons (some legitimate, some contested). They take this heavily altered data and feed it into models that also seem to alter the trend from that shown in the adjusted raw data. What's more, records of the raw data captured by meteorolgists online show old temperatures have not just been adjusted down the once, but the datasets have been adjusted mutliple times - each time with old data adjusted down. Many people that have investigated the adjustments and model algorithms find that global warming is all in the manipulations of the data and not in the raw data.

This is an example of strange changes to historic data that appear again and again to remove the warm period in the 30s and 40s. Time and again, raw data for individual stations suggest no significant difference between the 30s and noughties. All the warming is in the adjustments.



One of the most stupid adjustments is for growing urban heat island effects. As cities grow, the centres get warmer compared to the rural areas around them. What do modelers do to remove urban heat effects to get underlying trends? Instead of adjusting out all urban warming to match rural trends not affected by mankind, they tend to adjust urban readings half way to rural ones and they then also warm recent rural ones half way to urban ones to met in the middle, giving rural stations false warming trends. Should you trust models and their creators that make such stupid adjustments?



Apologies for off-topic. I'm happy to let it drop now. I could go on for pages but I think I've made my point. Do research to see if what you are told is true, just like you would for an investment. I find it often is not.

[nortic 007] 22/2/2018 18:51

These analysts will be rushing to be the first to get a note out tomorrow morning and then the rest follow like sheep.

[spacedust] 22/2/2018 18:48

167p broker note read in today's papers which is set to rise

[jpjohn1] 22/2/2018 18:42

Yes capeview, this is what we are waiting for now, the last time there was an upgrade it went up nearly 9p. If we can get that again we can be into the 1.50s

[justiceforthemany] 22/2/2018 18:29

Hope to see some broker upgrades tomorrow. Fundamentally undervalued still at anything below 200p.

[jpjohn1] 22/2/2018 17:20

Yes there are a lot of rich people out there ( not me) . They now say there are 800,000 people who on paper ( there homes ) who are millionaires. There are a lot of streets in London where all the houses are worth over a million. In Oxford where I come from there are over 5,000 houses that are worth over 1 million

[gaffer73] 22/2/2018 16:49

Great day, needs to break £1.48 next.

[sux_2bu] 22/2/2018 16:45

Nice rise for you guys.

[capeview] 22/2/2018 16:43

I did quite nicely with Lloyds when I worked there. Share schemes were really good and from the start I was pumping money in when I didn't even know what they were and wasn't earning much.

Took a long time to get there, but had quite a nice sum by mid 20's and the Dividends were fantastic. Trouble is, being young with money and not much knowledge is a bad combination.

[jpjohn1] 22/2/2018 16:38

A bit of a drop on count up - .8p

[capeview] 22/2/2018 16:38

Well, it was doing it's best to keep above 1.43 before close but couldn't quite keep the momentum. Lets just hope we have a good day tomorrow.

[jpjohn1] 22/2/2018 16:36

I was very lucky, at the crash I never lost anything, some people lost a lot of money, and having a family is expensive.

[capeview] 22/2/2018 16:33

Still recovering from the 2008 crash. Wasn't concentrating on the markets but doing a house renovation before we had kids, so lost quite a bit, probably more on stupid rash decisions than anything the market did.

Then moved into our new house and renovations started all over again and had another child.

Now after all the expense, just trying to build the pot up again gradually, which is why our renovation has got to a point and is on hold.

[jpjohn1] 22/2/2018 16:32

I'm not rich capeview, just inherited money and put the money into shares, my brothers bought other houses

[nortic 007] 22/2/2018 16:30

£27k for the year but I'd rather see a bit of a recovery price wise . I'm more of a CGT type of fella. Still got another 60k to go :(

[capeview] 22/2/2018 16:28

I may not have anywhere near as much as you guys, but I feel a lot better too. lol

[capeview] 22/2/2018 16:26

Quite a nice Dividend there Nortic. ;) Keeps dreaming, one day, one day. lol

[nortic 007] 22/2/2018 16:24

I'm a glass half empty guy so I'm very cautious but given time we could see these back up and let's be honest they've had a monumental fall over 3 years .