Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[edjge2] 25/1/2018 10:25

CAML resuming its up channel I hope. Thanks MT. Caml like kaz offering a buy chance. Metals opn the up as $ crashes and more to come in both respects. Good oilies worth a bet too $ down IMO.

[mysteronz] 24/1/2018 17:55

MT you are a star, great source of information :) thank you

[ashehzi] 24/1/2018 17:16

Thanks Mount Teide for all the info you put here.

[arf dysg] 24/1/2018 10:20

topazfrenzy (1292) "this is just the start of a downtrend."


The small-company index, mid-sized company index and FTSE100 index are all below their highs of about two weeks ago. Ergo, CAML is doing what everything else is doing.

topazfrenzy, I suggest you take out a really massive short on CAML. Go on, you know you want to.

[mount teide] 23/1/2018 19:28

The nine cent Copper price sell off action today is similar to the sharp sell off in Q4 2017 following a strong run up - it was subsequently revealed to be driven by Chinese interests shorting the market to help Chinese buyers load up heavily at reduced prices - as evidenced by the record imports which followed in November 2017 up 42.3% from October and up 23.7% from November 2016.

As buyers of circa 50% of the global copper and zinc production, analysts say it is a tactic they have repeatedly employed to buy in volume cheaper. Frustratingly for the Chinese, as the Copper and Zinc price charts show - over the last two years on each occasion the market has absorbed the contrived 'sell off', bounced back and continued to push higher to such an extent Zinc is now at a 10 year high with decade low LME warehouse inventory.

With global GDP robust and forecast to accelerate over the next two years i suspect the market has not seen the last of their underhand manipulation or Africa their shameless acquisition of natural resources from Dictators for circa 10 cents on the dollar.

"So President Kabila, in return for kindly selling us these State natural resource assets at the agreed price, we agree to pay a 5% life of mine royalty, 3% to the DRC Treasury and 2% direct to your Swiss bank account?." A smiling Kabila nods his head " So nice doing business with you Mr President - its so good to now have international statesmen in the Presidential Offices of African Nations to work with, rather than the hugely corrupt Colonial era tyrants running these countries and letting their appalling multi nationals shamelessly exploit your people's natural resources." Kabila roars with laughter!

[topazfrenzy] 23/1/2018 16:34

I told you to sell last week, this is just the start of a downtrend.

[mount teide] 23/1/2018 10:50

Scotiabank bullish on zinc, copper



'Demand and prices for virtually all industrial materials and commodities – from lumber and copper to oil and agricultural products – made for strong gains in 2017, and “synchronized” global economic growth promises to continue pushing prices up throughout 2018 and 2019, according to Scotiabank Economics.

“Scotiabank Economics is forecasting, for the first time since the global financial crisis, that all major developed and emerging markets are all growing … this year and next, which provides tremendous tailwinds to the industrial commodities space, particularly on the base metals side,” said Scotiabank commodities analyst Rory Johnston.

Unlike the last supercycle, where China’s economy grew at tremendous rates while other major economics, like Europe, had tepid growth, global economic growth is now more “synchronized,” Johnston said.

Manufacturing growth globally is driving up the demand and price for base metals for home appliances and electronics. Meanwhile a “feverish sentiment” for electric vehicles is pushing up prices for nickel, copper and cobalt.

“Of all the metals, copper – or Doctor Copper, as many people like to call it because of its connection with the global industrial cycle – it really has benefitted the most of any of the commodities in terms of the sentiment gains that copper has accrued,” Johnston said.....

.....He thinks speculation has inflated the price somewhat, but over the longer term expects it to have the strongest fundamentals of all the metals over the next five years.

He forecasts copper prices to be in the $3 and $3.25 per-pound range in 2018 and 2019, respectively.......


......As has been predicted for some time now, zinc continues to be the hottest metal of all, reaching 10-year highs. Scotiabank is predicting zinc prices to be in the $1.60 per pound range throughout 2018 and 2019.'


I'm expecting the Baltic Dry Index to be at a conservative circa 3,500 by the end of 2019, that's nearly 250% higher than today but still just 29.6% of the 2008 high of the last shipping cycle.

[mount teide] 21/1/2018 11:54

The market fundamentals now compared to 2007/8 when Zinc and Copper prices were last at or close to decade highs could not be more different. Then Zinc and Copper were in surplus and the LME warehouse stock inventories were at decade and multi year highs respectively, while now they're at decade lows and in deficit - totally different price driver fundamentals which is likely to lead to an acceleration in M&A activity to take advantage of the upward pressure this is likely to continue exerting on metal pricing over the next few years.

Glencore's market size and shut-in production is enabling it to exert control over the Copper and Zinc markets by operating as a swing trader, similar to the role the Saudi's had for decades in the oil market, by using their huge shut-in Zinc and Copper production to not only support but push up prices.

CEO Ivan Glasenberg indirectly made this point in a recent presentation to the City - when he strongly emphasised to analysts that due to the long industrial metals market recession, new Copper and Zinc projects coming on stream over the next few years are now at a lower level than before the Chinese infrastructure boom, yet global supply is currently in deficit and warehouse stocks at decade lows. (ie now you join the dots together as to what this means for pricing and a company with huge shut-in globally material production).

Ivan clearly sees a 2/3 year market window of opportunity to commercial exploit after the brutal 8 year recession in the sector saw Glencore's valuation drop 85%, its dividend suspended and shareholders diluted by a huge cash raise to strengthen the balance sheet. After shutting in a number of mines with globally material production as others went bust, he has played a major role in driving up prices and turning around the fortunes of the survivors - as he said regarding the remarkable recent improvement in Glencore's financial performance, "what a difference a year of rising prices make!"

[mount teide] 21/1/2018 01:09

Monthly chart of the MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) - a basket of major industrial miners broke out of a 10-year downtrend in H2/2017.


The Time Is Right For Industrial Metals Miners

[ntv] 20/1/2018 09:06

looks like the muppett squad have arrived
happy to have sold most of our holding around 324
going to wait and see how things pan out in the first q
glh

[mount teide] 19/1/2018 09:02

Zinc, Lead and Copper pricing - a strong start to Q1/2018, demand is high with a further decline this month in reported LME Zinc, Lead and Copper warehouse stocks.

Zinc
Currently trading at $1.53/lb - 61.1% above 2016 average, 16.0% above 2017 average and 25.4% above H1/2017 average.

Lead
Currently trading at $1.16/lb - 37.1% above 2016 average, 10.4% above 2017 average and 15.3% above H1/2017 average.

Copper
Currently trading at $3.23/lb - 46.8% above 2016 average, 15.0% above 2017 average and 23.7% above H1/2017 average.


Data Source: Kitco

SASA mine acquisition - valuation/price paid was based on the 2016 results.

[curnic1] 19/1/2018 05:34

Get IN before the stampede.

[topazfrenzy] 18/1/2018 17:15

Delusional, get out before the stampede

[bricktycoon] 17/1/2018 23:57

Frenzy u silly little man let's look at the facts. The world is in the most aggressive creation of wealth ever. The stock markets are ripping up smashing records for fun everyday. This has been in a upward trend and is going massively north of here fact.Trump has sent the metals through the roof and will continue to do so with his radical implementation of tax cuts and general industrial mindset. Add the up and coming Electric car boom that will gobble up all spare captivity in rare earth minerals and general non ferrous metals and you have a dream investment here. This is going to either be taken out by the majors I.e glencore or go parabolic upwards of £7 very soon buy buy buy gla no brainier here

[arf dysg] 17/1/2018 17:26

Let us know when you take out that amazing short.

[topazfrenzy] 17/1/2018 17:24

Down to £1.20 in 2019-2020, maybe much less, China is about to reveal its deception soon enough, the growth is phony, copper is done by end of this year but best to take the money off the table now.

[oohrogerpalmer] 17/1/2018 13:53

Portfolio looks like the red sea today.
Only CAM giving me some cheer.

[bricktycoon] 17/1/2018 13:10

Watch this space Ivan is about to send this soaring with a huge bid last post time will tell gla

[from8to800] 17/1/2018 12:41

"Possible £7 glencore bid imminent" [citation needed]

"Glencores hungry this is pocket change to them" - most ridiculous argument for an acquisition I've ever heard.

I would very much like so, but you folks need to a) calm down, b)provide some source and c)stop drawing attention to it.

[arf dysg] 17/1/2018 12:29

Occasionally on the stock market, one gets lucky. The trick is to recognise that one has got lucky, check it out to see if it's real, and then act on it.


More succinctly, in the words of Warren Buffett:

"When it's raining gold, take a bucket not a thimble."

Accordingly, I am buying all I can of these.