Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[bricktycoon] 17/1/2018 12:14

Glencores hungry this is pocket change to them 100 percent increase in share price nailed on buy buy buy

[arf dysg] 17/1/2018 12:07

possible £700000000000000000000000000000000000 pound bid by Glencore.

[samdb] 17/1/2018 12:06

Please don't ramp, CAML will climb nicely without it

[bricktycoon] 17/1/2018 12:02

Possible £7 glencore bid imminent get in while u can buy buy buy

[mount teide] 17/1/2018 11:43

L2 - The buyers went through the group of MM's sitting on the offer at 330p like a hot knife through butter - all have moved to 340p or higher!

[arf dysg] 17/1/2018 11:29

topazfrenzy,

Please let us know when you open your massive short on CAML.

[topazfrenzy] 17/1/2018 08:48

Just be aware that the phantom recovery in China is just that, and could collapse at any point, together with everything around it, as you know with commodities things move fast so first sign of trouble I will be shorting.

[martinthebrave] 17/1/2018 07:37

Happy to hold these & I have quite a few. A long way to go IMO.

[davr0s] 17/1/2018 06:52

Lol - I've never seen anyone quoting zh as a reason to short. Been calling the top on markets for an eternity

[curnic1] 17/1/2018 06:07

Zero hedge = Zero research.

[masurenguy] 17/1/2018 01:00

So why don't you go ahead then !

[topazfrenzy] 17/1/2018 00:42

time to short this stock, it's going down

[cgequityinvest] 15/1/2018 16:58

Thanks for this MT.

Looking back at the Quoted Data broker note from Nov 17 I note that their forecasts suggested a dividend of 18p for 2018 rising to 23p for 2019. These were based on a long term copper price of $3 per lb. Current price is circa $3.20. So supportive of Peel Hunts view for better than 6% dividend yield.

[mount teide] 15/1/2018 12:39

Peel Hunt's view:

'Both sites appear to be working well at present. Given the solid metals pricing environment at present, this should underpin strong cash flows and healthy dividends.

The closing cash balance of US$46m was in line with our estimate suggesting our closing net debt of US$138m is about right. The strong cash flows at present underpin a better than 6% dividend yield on our current estimates.'

6%+ - That's the rarified atmosphere of the very best FTSE 100 heavyweights like Shell - although not altogether surprising as the share price performed considerably better than Shell's during the 5 year commodity sector recession.

Edit - circa 10% of the current share-price in potential dividend payments over the next 15 months.

[mount teide] 15/1/2018 10:27

cge - indeed - numbers are very much in line with my own forecast and should push the share price comfortably through 400p during the year, if Copper, Lead and Zinc prices stay remotely close to, never mind continue to strengthen, from the current level at 10% to 15% above the 2017 averages.

[cgequityinvest] 15/1/2018 10:15

MT - agree with your overall sentiment although forecasts for y/e Dec 2018 are hardly boring:

- 105% increase in eps to US 55c
- forecast (Dec 2018) p/e ratio of 7.9
- forecast dividend yield 6%

(figs taken from Stockopedia).

[mount teide] 15/1/2018 09:35

As with dull, boring but high performing Clarksons CKN (average 1 post a week over the last decade while the share price has gone from £0.90 in 2000 to £30.50 today) it is surprising to see the low level of PI interest in CAML at this stage of the commodities cycle, particularly considering the performance during the brutal 5 year commodity sector recession that took metal prices and FTSE mining heavyweights share-prices down to decade lows.

[bluerunner] 15/1/2018 08:22

Some people selling on the news but this seems a decent medium-long term prospect to me. Good dividend as well.

[samdb] 15/1/2018 08:18

Adding this morning while the market works out the figures

[samdb] 15/1/2018 07:55

Good update, top end of guidance

[aishah] 14/1/2018 13:07

The outlook for miners remains "compelling", analysts at Barclays told clients, pointing to a raft of positive drivers for the sector.

Included among those were the strengthening macroeconomic backdrop, limited capital outlays, volume and mergers and acquisitions responses to higher prices from companies, strong earnings momentum and cash generation.

But according to Barclays the list of supportive factors didn't stop there, with the analysts going on to mention: rising returns on capital, under-leveraged balance sheets, cheap valuation multiples at current commodity prices and light positioning.

In their view, all of the above created "conditions for continued outperformance".

Copper, aluminium and gold were the broker's preferred commodities for 2018

[lord gnome] 13/1/2018 16:44

I shall await the inevitable short squeeze with glee.

[mount teide] 13/1/2018 12:35

Bacanora and Horizonte

With a special mention for Asia Met ('no need to repeat the ARS story as I have now been pushing this for about 5 years but it could just keep going' - Andrew Monk) - I agree and hold. After outstanding operational and value enhancing progress under the new management who have taken their entire fees since 2015 as share options, the share price is already up 10 fold from the 2015/16 mining sector low and IMO has the potential to go up another 10 fold by 2022 such is the exceptional world class quality of the assets and management, who have done it all before building two $billion mining companies from tiny juniors).


A 2.15 % CAML short position(with nothing of notifiable size) was generated in October following the announcement of the RTO and placing at 230p. Prior to this the total stock out on loan in September was 0.39%. I estimate the average price of the short position as circa 240p.

The short position marginally increased in November to 2.35%.

In light of the 40% increase in the share-price since the RTO placing at 230p, and the move from 252p to 322p since early December, it was not surprising that some during December elected to throw in the towel and make a run for the exit door.

The December report saw the short position drop by 700,000 shares to 1.84% from 2.35%. This means there is still 3.23 million shares out on loan(short), most of which will be heavily underwater (circa 35%) in a company where the price and demand for its production assets continues to be in a strongly rising trend - a sobering thought for the shorts, which will be compounded further by the news that a very strong Q4 Trading and Year End update is imminent and, that the stock out on loan is still probably equivalent to the total transaction volume of at least 7 trading days.

AIMHO/DYOR